Review of the world’s major financial markets per week 1 — 5 December 2014

Last week, stock indices, although demonstrated mixed dynamics under the influence of a large number of different reports ultimately still mostly showed a moderately positive trend. The exception was the only American NASDAQ, which lost 0.63%. Dow Jones showed an increase of 0.74%, once again updating the maximum at 17978 thanks in no small measure contributed to stronger-than-expected data on US labor market. The German DAX index added at the end of five days 1.21%, even though soft enough comments made by Mario Draghi, after publication of the decision on monetary policy. Received some support from the index data on industrial orders in Germany, which showed an increase. Japan’s Nikkei added 3.29%, becoming the leader of growth, and the Hang Seng rose by only 0.34%. The growth of the Asian indices due to expectations of further stimulus European and Japanese regulators.

Precious metals started the week quite positive, showing a sharp rise after it became known that «Black Friday» in the US went worse than expected. And that movement Monday allowed them to finish the week in positive territory, as released on Friday employment data on payrolls in the non-agricultural sector showed a stronger-than-expected growth and confirmed that the US economy shows enough power to the Fed could move to tighten monetary policy in the expected time frame. Silver rose by 5.34%. Gold added 2.15%.

Brent crude oil after an unsuccessful attempt to develop an upward correction, which was kept level of 72.50, and resumed its decline to the end of the week came at 68.79, having lost its follow-up of 1.73%. Additional pressure on the quotes black gold have reported that Saudi Arabia has announced the reduction of the January price for Asia and the USA. Thus the country has shown that it is ready to fight for market share.

In the currency market USD / RUB started the week up a gap that has not been able to close. Russian currency losses amounted to 6.86%. resumed upward movement. In this case, neither the Bank of Russia, who sold the currency to support the ruble, nor statements by the President of the Russian Federation that the government and the central bank should discourage speculators hunting play on ruble exchange rate fluctuations have not been able to help win back the currency losses. USD / JPY for the week once again updated the 7-year high, showing an increase of 2.32%. The US dollar remains the favorite market. In addition, statistics from the US recently signaled that the US economy is quite firmly on the road to recovery. But the Bank of Japan are still waiting for additional incentives, and last week the country was downgraded.

Forecast 8 — December 12

Stock market

It is worth noting that, as a rule, in December the stock market goes in a positive way. But any rule there are exceptions, so only rely on this law should not be. The coming week will not please such a number of important reports, as Passed. However, the individual releases deserve quite attention. Basic catalysts can get in the market Thursday and Friday. US was to publish data on retail sales, a report on the producer price index and consumer confidence from the University of Michigan. Signs of further stabilization of the US economy will be perceived to be optimistic stock market and could push the index to new heights. Although, if we talk about Dow Jones, it should be noted that he is getting closer to the psychological resistance at 18000, pass that can be difficult. However, this level can be called as a nearest target movement. Nasdaq has already begun correction and it is possible that at the beginning of the week he did continue, decreasing in the level of 4245.85, which can become quite an interesting point of entry for the purchase. The German DAX may be influenced by the publication of data on the program LTRO, conducted by the ECB. Higher figures would indicate increased demand for liquidity that can support an index that has already been able to gain a foothold above the level of 10000. The primary objective of growth may be a mark 10100. fairly large block of statistics will be published during the week on the Chinese economy: report on the foreign trade balance index consumer prices, industrial production and retail sales. Signs of further cooling of the economy of China could trigger rising expectations of additional stimulus from the People’s Bank of China, and it will be able to support Asian markets. Hong Kong HSI may target the movement in the level of 24352.

Commodities

A referendum in Switzerland, held over the weekend, did not meet expectations. Country voted «against» the existing initiatives. Therefore, gold can remain under pressure, especially as the US economy has not yet cause much concern and no reason to expect that the Fed will postpone indefinitely the beginning of the hike. In general, we can assume that in the coming week precious metals will largely follow the American data. Strong statistics continue to put pressure on gold and silver, which can only increase if inflation at the producer level is below expectations. After breaking below the 1180.00 gold price could fall to around 1157.92, silver in this case may revert to 16,000 and, further, to 15.469. Although, if the stock market will begin a downward correction, it may cause short-term redistribution of funds in favor of the metals market, which will help them to return to the area last week’s highs.

Quotes of Brent crude has adequately played OPEC’s decision, which shows the trend of last week, when a collapse in prices has stopped. But the struggle for market continues, as eloquently shown by the decision of Saudi Arabia. Slowing global economy causes a high enough demand for black gold mined is at multi-year highs. The imbalance of supply and demand may continue to put pressure on oil prices. At the break of the lower end of the range in which prices were held last week (68.66 — 72.50), will open the way further down to around 66.50 dollars per barrel.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar / ruble may still show relatively high volatility. Although after becoming aware of the interference in the course of trade of the Central Bank of Russia, which he carried out the 1 and 3 December, to sell the currency for a total of $ 2.6 billion, it is possible that the activity of the sellers of the ruble fell slightly, because the actions of the Bank of Russia this stage is difficult to predict. And it can even contribute to short-term strengthening of the ruble. Perhaps quotations decrease in the level of 51.00. Besides, do not forget that on December 11 will be a meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia. At the last meeting of the regulator raised its key rate by 1.5%. The choice before the CB face difficult: on the one hand, the need for further tightening of monetary policy may be due to rising inflation, on the other hand, the economy is needed liquidity, as it is on the verge of recession. If tightening will continue, USD / RUB can accelerate the fall in the short term. A risk factor for the Russian currency is the price of oil.

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Review of the world's major financial markets per week 1 - 5 December 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners