Review of the world’s major financial markets from January 6, 2015

Falling oil prices continue to put pressure on the shares in oil companies, but on Tuesday, the stock market is not so nervously reacted to this factor. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) at the end of trading day lost 0.3%. Meanwhile, Britain’s FTSE lost 1.4%, while Germany’s DAX closed in neutral territory. US stock indexes continued to incur losses impressive.

The yen set the tone for trading on the foreign exchange market, would dramatically improve on the flight of investors from risky assets. USD / JPY slipped to a 3-week low of 118.04, closing the day close. Meanwhile, economic data painted a mixed picture: British PMI Services significantly fell short of expectations (55.8 vs. 58.5), which collapses GBP / USD to almost 1.5-year low at 1.5166. Data from the euro zone were not so pessimistic: Spain, France and Germany have pleased exceeding the predicted values ​​for the PMI, but in Italy and the euro area as a whole, the indices fell short of expectations. As a result, EUR / USD from 1.1932 opening level reached the maximum of 1.1968 and closed in the area of ​​1.1930. USD / RUB opened trading at 59.81, reached maximum 63.75, completing trades near 62.10.

Crude oil futures continued to fall now, amid speculation that the US reserves reflect the increase again. Brent opened trading at $ 53.03 per barrel, the updated 5.5-year low of $ 50.84, completing the auction close.

Precious metals are in consolidation mode with weak attempts at growth. As a result, XAU / USD closed at around $ 1219.40 per ounce, rolled away from the 3-week high of $ 1,223.14 and silver — went to 16.60.

Forecast for Wednesday, January 7

Stock market

On Wednesday, late in the evening will be published minutes of the last meeting of the FOMC, which will surely attract the attention of the market. US stocks continue to be under pressure since the last days of last year, which is correlated with the historical dynamics of the benchmarks in this time period. However, expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy can make its own adjustments. Recall that at the last meeting of the Fed only slightly adjusted the text accompanying performances, but it was Janet Yellen word about a possible rate hike after two meetings led investors to believe that everything will happen in April. If the protocol would be less aggressive, it could trigger a new wave of demand for equity assets. In addition, growth indices can be expected under the influence of technical correction after a long period of sales. Thus, NASDAQ-100 (NQ) and the Dow Jones (YM) can be expected to return to the region 4250, and 17800, respectively.

Commodities

The energy market continues to be under pressure, and now it crushed rumors that today published a report on the quantities of oil and oil products in the US confirmed the next increase in the index. The study shows Bloomberg, levels last week could grow by 750 thousand. Barrels. At the moment, investors are fixated on the topic of excess supply in the energy market: quotations fell too fast and too low, but there is no sign of a reversal of the current trend. Most likely, Brent will continue to fall to the specified earlier strong support at $ 50 per barrel. Thus, it makes sense to consider short-term positions for purchase on the approximation to the said mark with the target at $ 54.80 per barrel. Output of weaker than expected data on US crude stocks may become the catalyst.

Foreign exchange market

USD / RUB, while Russian investors are experiencing long New Year holidays, shifted his attention to the dynamics of Brent. And here it is, what to see: oil prices every day update next multi-year lows, which makes the ruble cheaper and beyond. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that after a long fall are always correct: Brent from the beginning of the year has lost 12% of the cost or $ 7. If the level of $ 50 per barrel would be a strong support in the area of ​​54-55 correction is inevitable and, therefore, and the ruble is likely to regain its position in the area of ​​58.00.

With regard to the global currency market, it is worth noting that the dollar remains the strongest currency, despite the impressive strengthening of the yen in recent days. Historically, that in January — the strongest month for the dollar index over the past 30 years, with average growth of its 1.04%. Most often this is due to the psychology of investors — many from the very beginning of the new year prefer to build positions of the asset, who has worked in the previous year best. Moreover, the statistics also show that in January a very bad month for the bulls on the pound sterling. The situation with the problems of the eurozone will put pressure on the British economy, and recent economic reports have confirmed this trend. Thus, the potential fall of the GBP / USD, may still not exhausted. Scheduled for Thursday meeting of the Bank of England is unlikely to bring something new, but psychologically can remind investors that the Fed chances of a faster increase of the rate is much higher than that of the British Bank. The immediate goal on the way down can be a mark of 1.51.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from January 6, 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners