Review of the world’s major financial markets from January 5, 2015

Stock markets have come under pressure from several negative factors: the rumors of withdrawal of Greece, as well as the collapse of quotations of oil companies. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) at the end of trading day gained 0.75%. Meanwhile, Britain’s FTSE fell by 2%, while the German DAX — by 2.5%. US stock indexes also suffered losses impressive.

Start the new year immediately brought quite a expected but impressive news — Germany admits the possibility of a Greek exit from the eurozone. According to an article in Der Spiegel, the German government believes such a scenario is almost inevitable if he wins the party «Syriza» in the elections on 25 January. This immediately collapses EUR / USD to a minimum in June 2010 1.1863, the pair will attempt to reestablish the area of ​​1.1970, but closed trading near 1.1920. USD / JPY opened trading at 120.48, 119.37 weakened the area, but the closure has returned to the area of ​​119,70. GBP / USD opened at 1.5303 bids, immediately touched the lowest level since July 2013 at the level of 1.5172, returning to 1.5240 area into the close. USD / RUB opened trading at 58.61, down to the minimum of 55.43, but back above 59.68 to closing.

Crude oil futures since the beginning of the year have come under a new wave of sales amid concerns about the economic future of the eurozone, which may further limit the demand for energy. In addition, pour oil on the fire and maximum levels grew proposals from Iraq and Russia. Brent opened trading at $ 55.93 per barrel, the updated 5.5-year low of $ 52.66, completing trades near $ 53.60.

Precious metals are in consolidation mode with weak attempts at growth. As a result, XAU / USD closed at around $ 1202.50 per ounce, rolled away from the local minimum of $ 1178.18, and silver — went to 16.20.

Forecast for Tuesday, January 6

Stock market

Today, attention should be paid to the US stock market. Current Week promises a lot of interesting events from the United States, headed by the protocol of the last meeting of the FOMC, as well as a report on the labor market. Thus, we can expect increased activity in the stock market due to the revaluation expectations of maturity of the first rate hike. NASDAQ-100 (NQ) and Dow Jones (YM) may well regain its position after an impressive collapse Monday if economic data to convince investors that the Fed will not rush the transition mode tightening.

And a little about promotions. More recently, the company Petrobras (PBR) was the pride of Brazil, in 2010, becoming a technological leader in the search for new deposits among the oil giants. But now the state-owned company, it seems, is sinking. Every day we get new news that create all the conditions for the collapse of stocks, ranging from large-scale corruption scandal and ending with the recent claim of US authorities to the company. Petrobras shares lost a third of its value in less than a month. And if oil prices continue to fall, many wells, which were bought on credit, will become unprofitable for the company, and, therefore, have an asset has a long way down. For short-term investors, it makes sense to catch up any correction to open short positions. For long-term traders current record lows — a good entry point into the market, as the state-controlled company has an impressive support and will be saved under any circumstances.

Commodities

Oil prices continue to move in the «south» direction, as the country-oil producers make every effort to ensure that the quotes were not able to recover. The fact that production volumes have increased Russia in December by 0.7%, as Iraq plans to increase exports to highs since 1980. Under such conditions, Brent will continue to fall until it reaches a new level of strong support. Most likely, this will be the area of ​​$ 50 per barrel. Thus, it is advisable to open short positions, even at current levels, but on approaching a specified area can expect an impressive correction that can also be used in intraday trading.

Foreign exchange market

The coming week will be completely full in terms of economic events, although we can hardly expect the return of normal trading volumes in the coming days. This combination of factors could spell only one thing — the exaggerated volatility in the foreign exchange market at the exit of each important report. So, the main event will undoubtedly be the protocol of the last FOMC meeting the US, as well as a report on the levels of employment payrolls (Non-Farm Payrolls). Also, you should carefully monitor all data coming from the labor market during this week (Report ADP, the employment component within the ISM service sector and manufacturing industry, 4-week moving average in the number of applications for unemployment benefits).

USD / RUB in the current circumstances, is in the most dangerous position, since it is the majority of Russian traders have not yet returned to the New Year holidays. This means that in the coming days we expect a rather sharp movements in response to the dynamics of the US dollar in the other pairs, and the dynamics of oil Brent, which continues to beat the «anti-record» from the beginning of 2015. In such circumstances, it makes sense to consider buying at every correction of the pair below 55.00.

In addition, you should pay attention to the EUR / USD in the light of the evolving situation lately around Greece. In fact, the current year will be crucial for the euro area, given that once in 3 European countries will hold elections (Greece, Spain and Portugal). In Greece, it will happen on January 25 and the political choice is whether to preserve the «status quo» on austerity measures or to consider the option to default. Many have already spoken about the need for debt restructuring for the country, and in terms of being in the euro zone is almost impossible. Thus, it is likely that the E-18 can turn in the E-17. For this may mean euro sale as a primary reaction. Add to this the prospects of deflation amid falling energy prices, as well as quantitative easing, which can run in the coming months, and the prospects for parity in EUR / USD will not seem so distant. In the current environment, short positions makes sense to open the correction of near 1.20, or the breakdown of 1.1850 area.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from January 5, 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners