Review of the world’s major financial markets from January 29, 2015

Stock markets have digested the main event of the week and went into consolidation mode in the rather limited news background. As a result, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) at the end of trading day lost about 0.3%. Meanwhile, Britain’s FTSE has grown by 0.9%, while Germany’s DAX gained nearly 2%. US stock indexes have grown too bad trading day to the end.

The foreign exchange market was very sluggish on Thursday, lacking news catalysts. The most active on the FOMC meeting responded commodity currencies against the dollar collapses, and all the others tried to follow narrow ranges. EUR / USD from 1.1286 opening level could be restored to the area of ​​1.1330. Meanwhile, GBP / USD from 1.5134 opening level is not trying to move away all day. USD / JPY 117.38 from a minimum close to 118.30. USD / RUB steadily moved up from 67.32 at the opening to a maximum of 68.84, from which retreated slightly to close.

Oil prices once again tried to determine its scope, then falling under the influence of talk about excess supply is restored on concerns about interference oil-producing countries. As a result, Brent opened trading at $ 48.52 a barrel, has grown to $ 49.13, then fell back, and to adjust the end of trading at around $ 49.04 per barrel.

Precious metals have fallen under the influence of several factors, which we describe below. So, XAU / USD from the opening level of $ 1284.69 reached the minimum of $ 1251.94 and closed slightly higher, while silver traded near 16.90 at the close.

Forecast for Friday, January 30

Stock market

Until the end of January there was only one trading day, and the index Dow Jones (YM) traded in the red at a rate of 3.5%, which, incidentally, was quite predictable, given the statistics of previous years. We talked about this in the last review in 2014: «index of the first day of January 2014 has fallen to 135.31 point, but for the whole month — at 1203.68 pkt., Or 7.3%, before starting a new rally . The situation could happen again this year, especially given the sharp appreciation of the Dow Jones in the last days. » So, if the statistics helped us to assess the likely change in the index in January, it may help to determine the trend for the whole year? According to a survey conducted by the Wall Street Journal the January dynamics predicted annual dynamics of the index in 87 of the 117 years. And if the Dow fell in January, he closed the year in negative territory in 60% of cases, although 2014 was no exception. In eight of the last 11 years, repeating the January index trend for the year. This thought-provoking information for long-term investors. As for the current situation index came close to a strong psychological support of 17,000, which makes us think that in the coming days we can see a good correction up for the purpose at around 17,260.

Commodities

Precious metals sharply yesterday passed partly digested meeting FOMC, partly responded to the rise in the dollar, partly under the long-awaited technical correction after a long growth — by nearly 10% since the beginning of the year. It is not surprising that gold (XAU / USD) still showed a fall, and the highest since October last year rate. However, we recommend not to be afraid of such a sharp collapse, and to observe the dynamics of the asset, as the current levels are very attractive to enter long positions, provided that the current fall — only a temporary correction. The slow pace of world economic growth, constantly flashing geopolitical conflicts and ultrasoft policy implemented a large number of central banks of the world can create the conditions for «flight from risk» in a safe gold.

Foreign exchange market

USD / RUB continued its upward movement on fears about a new round of sanctions against Russia for which the information leaked during yesterday. However, the final decision will be announced on February 12, so up until this point the ruble may be under pressure. Today, the focus will be a meeting of the Bank of Russia, which will decide on the rate. Very unlikely to see any changes in monetary policy, given the fact that the head of the Central Bank Nabiullina stated that the rate cut will only happen in the context of a weakening of inflationary pressures. According to the latest data from Rosstat, for the period from 20 to 26 January the growth rate of the consumer price index was 0.6%, and since the beginning of January — 2.1%. In such circumstances, it is hardly worth waiting for action by the regulator, and therefore on the ruble this event will have no effect.

We have not touched the commodity currencies, but their reaction to the results of the FOMC meeting could not leave us indifferent. NZD / USD lost in January only about 7%, having fallen to almost 4-year low at 0.7266. Even the neutral position of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) did not stop the currency from falling, while the regulator has made it clear that cutting rates is not going to. The current level of 3.5% already looks more attractive than on a background of wholesale switch to «Extra-mode» by the majority of central banks of the world — the highest rate among developed countries, which could mean the likelihood of massive purchases of the New Zealand dollar in the near future. And that is the probability of the demand for «kiwi» in the «carry trade» is afraid of the Central Bank, when he tries to convince us that the current rate is too high. It is worth noting that despite all these verbal interventions, the central bank foreign exchange intervention in December last year spent only 16 million. Most likely, the RBNZ suit anything below 0.75 on NZD / USD, and to intervene «actual sales», he does not intend to . This means that we have another good option for a profitable strategy. Until the following Tuesday, which from the Australian Central Bank will wait for a rate cut, «kiwi» may be under pressure and may reach the level of 0.72. However, at such low levels, it makes sense to consider buying it, not only from a technical point of view but also from a fundamental, as the currency may experience demand from «hunters for yield.» The most interesting crosscourt in this regard may be the EUR / NZD.

Твой выбор Find more free forex signals providers.

Search

The best broker

Link to Us



Review of the world's major financial markets from January 29, 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners