Review of the world’s major financial markets from January 28, 2015

Stock markets around the world watched the news from the US, and the statement of FOMC, in fact — is the worst thing they could get by being realistic. The regulator has kept restraint tones and neutral phrases, hinting that a rate hike early to say, but the current situation in the global economy is still «does not give up» on the likelihood of tightening. As a result, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) at the end of trading day rooted to 0.6%. Meanwhile, Britain’s FTSE slid by 0.9%, while Germany’s DAX remained neutral. US stock indexes lost almost to the end of trading day.

All day currency market wondered what will present FOMC. And the soft policy of central banks, and weak global growth, and low oil prices spoke in favor of the fact that the Fed will mene aggressive. And that’s what happened, although that got the bulls on the dollar — it’s most of what they could expect. Currency reacted sluggishly. EUR / USD from 1.1380 opening level has slipped to 1.13 at the close. Meanwhile, GBP / USD from 1.5200 reached 1.5145. USD / JPY from 117.86 in early trading days fell to 117.60 on completion. USD / RUB from 66.25 reached 67.32.

Fed meeting has not made much of an impression on oil, but the data weekly review of the Energy Information Administration US Department of Energy pressured quotes. Commercial oil reserves in the country for the week increased by 8.9 million barrels, 2.2%, and amounted to 406.7 million barrels. As a result, Brent opened trading at $ 49.24 a barrel, slipped to $ 48.30, and to adjust the end of trading at around $ 48.50 per barrel.

Precious metals are a little weak before the FOMC meeting and after the event, little has changed. So, XAU / USD from the opening level of $ 1292.49 reached the high of $ 1293.73 and closed at around $ 1284 per ounce, while silver traded near 18.00 at the close.

Forecast for Thursday, January 29

Stock market

USA tried to convince the world of the stock that they clearly intend to continue confident the pace of recovery, and their central bank has not changed his mind to move to the tightening mode to «the next meeting.» This little pressure on global indices, but not on the DAX, which remained neutral even under such circumstances. The thing is that recently presented the program to stimulate the ECB is a good incentive for further growth of the benchmark. The only obstacle is the uncertainty of the fate of Greece. Yesterday, the new Minister of Finance of the country stated that they «turned the page with incorrect rescue action.» What does this mean for the relationship with the «troika» and for new tranches can only guess. However, we recommend using the current uncertainty and possible correction to reduce the index to enter a position to buy at more attractive levels, since there is a possibility to see the mark of 11,000 in the next few months, as soon as the dust settles all the passions, and Greece reached an agreement with the EU.

And a little about the action of the day. Brazilian state oil company Petróleo Brasileiro SA (PBR) released finally belated Not Last audited results for the third quarter, but the company’s shares have fallen at the opening on Wednesday, more than 10%, as investors remained in the dark about the financial consequences of a multibillion-dollar corruption scandal for the company. Petrobras reported a net quarterly profit, which fell 9.1% from a year earlier. The company postponed the publication of the results, originally scheduled for November, in connection with a series of allegations of corruption, which escalated into a national scandal. That is why many investors in the current report is expected to see at least a rough estimate of the extent of the distortion of real value. The fact that Petrobras decided not to include the write-off of assets in this report, can be very bad for an already tarnished reputation. In addition, there is a risk that the company will lose its investment grade rating under the influence of all that is happening. Chances are good that now write-off of assets will be included in the results for the 4th quarter, which will be published by the end of April. However, according to preliminary estimates, net charge-offs amounted to 61.4 bln reais, or 23.8 billion US dollars. This is actually more than 40% of the market value of the company and, therefore, is likely to see a long-term downward trend of the asset. The immediate goal on the way down could be around $ 5.78 (minimum of 6 January).


This year’s Gold (XAU / USD) has added the 9% on the sensations of the investors that the Fed still delay the transition to the regime of tightening against the backdrop of global recession and low inflation. In favor of the growth of the precious metal acts and ultrasoft policy of several key central banks of the world: Swiss National Bank unbind the franc to the euro sharply lower interest rates, and the ECB moved to the implementation of the program of quantitative easing. In addition, milder conditions have passed and Danish, and Canadian and Singaporean regulators. It is worth noting that the volume of trading in futures on the asset increased by 54% from the average of the past 100 days. Assets in gold-commodity funds increased by 7.9 metric tons to 1,652.2 tons, the highest level since October last year. Never mind that yesterday the Fed take a neutral tone — comments on the topic of inflation is clearly given to understand that in the current environment, no need to rush. We believe that demand for the metal will continue to grow, so the current downward correction may be regarded as a good entry point to the closest target at $ 1322.64 (maximum in August 2014).

Foreign exchange market

USD / RUB, seems to continue to grow and at the opening on Thursday, as the US dollar strengthened slightly against the Fed’s decision «pause» and not give up until the transition to the regime of tightening. In addition, the price of Brent crude remained under pressure from the growing commercial energy reserves of the United States, and from the strengthening dollar. After unsuccessful attempts to rise above $ 50 a barrel earlier in the week, the asset is rushed to the area of ​​$ 48.00. And that’s just pushing the ruble continue to fall, especially in an environment where national policy does not have any impact on the currency. Disclosure of details of anti-crisis plan of the Russian government has not caused significant exchange rate fluctuations. In such circumstances, the area 69,00 looks quite a real target by the end of Friday.


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Review of the world's major financial markets from January 28, 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners