Review of the world’s major financial markets from January 21, 2015

Stock markets had a positive impact in uniform. The world’s major benchmarks were happy coming meeting of the ECB. As a result, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) at the end of trading day gained 1.23%. Meanwhile, Britain’s FTSE rose by 1.0%, while Germany’s DAX rooted at 0.35%. US stock indices also showed a small increase to the end of the trading day.

Currency market moving again under the influence of several factors. So, EUR / USD is still not out of standby mode, preferring to have to wait for the ECB meeting, and only then begin to fluctuations. During the day she made attempts to get to the maximum 1.1679 on rumors about the size of the program QE, but the movement quickly descended on net.Tem time, GBP / USD fell under the sales outlet protocol last meeting MPC, which confirmed that the decision is now in the Bank of England accepted unanimously, as lower inflation and the slowdown in the global economy to delay the rate hike. As a result, the vapor from the opening level of 1.5141 rolled to a minimum 1.5075, but recovered in the area of ​​1.5140 at the close. USD / JPY has deployed direction after a long period of growth and has slipped to 117.30, ending trading at around 117.90. USD / RUB grew slightly weakened under the influence of oil prices, but the strengthening of the demand for energy in the end of the trading day helped the pair return to the area of ​​64.80.

Oil prices showed a sharper-than-normal fluctuations under the influence of verbal intervention on the part of oil companies. This time to Venezuela and Iran joined by Oman, criticized the inaction of the cartel, and called to intervene with falling oil prices. As a result, Brent opened trading at $ 48.13 a barrel, has grown to $ 49.56, ending trading at around $ 48.60.

Precious metals are experiencing «finest hour», continuing to beat the record mark. So, XAU / USD from the opening level of $ 1294.86 grown to 5-month high of $ 1305.47 and closed at around $ 1294 per ounce, while silver traded near 18.20 at the close.

Forecast for Thursday, January 22

Stock market

Came the most important day of the trading week — Today we will learn how far the ECB will go in an attempt to stimulate the economy in the eurozone. In such circumstances, no doubt, will be the center of attention in the German index DAX, which has already managed to update the record highs above 10315. It is worth noting that yesterday’s events have deprived the market «element of surprise», although the European regulator could still surprise the scale of the program, and run the code in the area of ​​10450. So yesterday leaked to resources such as Bloomberg, WSJ and «Reuters» gave reason to expect bond purchases by 50 billion a month since March of this year. Unlike in the rumor is only in the timing of the program: the source Bloomberg said that throughout 2016, and the other is assured that everything will last only until the end of 2015. If the program for 2 years, which means that the total amount of the program is 1.1 trillion euros, well above forecasts and support interest in the benchmark. If the program is limited to 2015, the market will be disappointed, and the DAX could return to the area of ​​10100. In addition, the value may have different parts, starting with the one who will buy the bonds, and ending with those whose bonds are sold.

Commodities

Oil prices continue to attract the world’s attention. Happened yesterday another interesting event, which may also have implications for the energy market. The voices of dissatisfied joined one of the largest Middle Eastern oil producers — Oman. Oil Minister of the country declared that the national economy is experiencing a «really tough times.» Recall that Standard & Poor’s downgraded the country’s rating outlook to negative from stable on December 5 last year. Budget Oman, where oil and gas brings 79% of revenue, is aimed at a price of $ 85 per barrel, ie almost twice as high current levels.

In addition, there is another economy, which implicitly recognized the problems of the current state of the energy market — Canada. Yesterday, the central bank of the country unexpectedly lowered interest rates, citing the risk of deflation and on and on the threat to the labor market. To this can be added and the whole is still some statistics: the oil companies this year will reduce capital spending in Western Canada at $ 23 billion, which can take about 120 thousand. Barrels per day from the projected production levels in 2016. We complete all messages from the Australian giant BHP, which intends to close 40% of its offshore wells in the United States by the end of the financial year. All this makes us think that perhaps further drop in prices of Brent is limited, and new negative news on the economies of oil-producing countries will be able to return the asset above $ 50 per barrel. Be careful with short positions.

Foreign exchange market

USD / RUB slightly retreated from the highs of the day on a whole series of data from the energy market, supported interest in Brent. However, it should be noted that on Wednesday the ruble pressured not only quotes of energy, but also verbal intervention in the form of a rather harsh statements of US President, who, as his own merits voiced the damage caused by the Russian economy. Such words only emphasize how tense relations are between the US and Russia, and the chance of reconciliation too little. Nevertheless, the Bank of Russia did not leave the situation aside, and stood up for the ruble, saying that the key rate will remain high as long as there will be a steady trend towards normalization of inflation expectations. As we can see, the national currency remains at the mercy of the market and geopolitics, which means that the period of sharp fluctuations in the pair is not finished yet.

As for the pair EUR / USD, the situation remains very difficult and tense. Yesterday we saw a surge in demand for the euro, there were rumors about the possible outcome of the ECB meeting. It just confirms once again the single currency is oversold. CFTC data on the distribution of futures positions show that speculators have accumulated an impressive short positions on the euro, so any disappointment from the European regulator could cause a wave of sell orders closure. 500 billion euros — this is the threshold for the program. If the total amount is lower than the avalanche purchases EUR / USD pair may send to the area of ​​1.1780. It is necessary to explain why it is likely disappointment of the market: the decision by the ECB QE will not be given too easily, because unlike other regulators in the eurozone 18 countries, and the choice of the size of the purchase for each of sovereign bonds will be too much politics, especially as concerns obligations of Greece. The more uncertainties in the details and the smaller the size of the program, the more likely to see a jump in demand for euros.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from January 21, 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners