Review of the world’s major financial markets from January 20, 2015

Stock markets on Tuesday cheered in anticipation of the ECB meeting, which is expected to «soft» solutions. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) at the end of trading day gained 0.77%. Meanwhile, Britain’s FTSE has grown by 0.5%, while Germany’s DAX closed with a slight disadvantage. US stock indexes showed gains for the completion of trading days.

The foreign exchange market behaved quite contradictory, as part of the market has been busy preparing for the meeting of the ECB, and some — threw all forces on the restoration of the British pound. So, EUR / USD trades conducted within the 50-point range, and even stronger data than expected for ZEW in Germany and the euro area have not been able to bring the single currency from standby. Meanwhile, GBP / USD fully compensate for the lack of movement in the euro, recovering from the Asian low 1.5056 to almost 1.52, but pulled back to 1.5150 into the close. USD / JPY continues to go up, this time closed in the area of ​​118.70. USD / RUB more than half of the day was held near the opening levels, but fell in the second half of the day oil prices sent the pair to 65.00 at the close.

Increased production on the part of OPEC and falling projections for global growth continue to put pressure on the quotes of «black gold». As a result, Brent opened trading at $ 48.85 a barrel, has grown to $ 49.46, and then resumed and completed trades fall again at around $ 48.45.

Precious metals are again experiencing demand after a short correction. So, XAU / USD from the opening level of $ 1275.73 grown to 5-month high of $ 1297.20 and closed at around $ 1292.40 per ounce, while silver traded near 17.90 at the close.

Forecast for Wednesday, January 21

Stock market

Despite the fact that yesterday the key stock indexes of the world, and with them the NASDAQ-100 (NQ) and Dow Jones (YM) enjoyed growth, we are looking quite skeptical on the growth potential of these two indices. Firstly, there was too much priced in back in December, and there was too much hope for the continued recovery of the US economy, which can pull the whole world. Secondly, the forthcoming meeting of the ECB, which can be presented a program of quantitative easing, although it can cause an initial burst of joyous emotion, can some time to remind the US indices that they have such soft and favorable conditions for growth will not be. And thirdly, falling oil prices, if achieved a level of $ 45 per barrel of Brent in the near future may trigger a new wave of sales of shares of oil companies that Dow Jones is not so good news. In the current environment, we can expect a short recovery indices to the nearest resistance levels (4200 and 17550, respectively), after which it is possible to return to recent lows. Thus, for short-term investors it makes sense to consider short positions in the approach to the specified level.

Commodities

Prices for Brent crude yesterday renewed the fall, although multi-year lows remain intact. As long as all quotations chance to resume the fall, because the flow of negative news for the energy market has not yet exhausted. The recent decision of the IMF to revise the outlook for global growth is only assured investors that in a short time to wait for a recovery in demand for «black gold» is not worth it. The International Monetary Fund showed the sharpest decline in its assessment in January 2012, and forecasts were cut for the euro area, Japan, China and Latin America. Also yesterday, the Iraqi oil minister said the country already produces 4 million barrels per day and is going to increase the volume of exports. Thus, the new news about the growing supply on the background of falling demand may well help Brent raid the nearest support level near $ 45 a barrel.

In addition, our attention today attracts Copper (HG). As we have mentioned in one of our reports dated January 14, this metal is quite an interesting dynamic that inherently resembles lagging graphics oil. Then we noticed that in the current circumstances it makes sense to consider short positions from last week reached a minimum, but in the long term to consider options for the asset sales with more attractive entry points. Since asset increased by about 6.8%. We do not argue that it had good reasons for the fundamental nature. The growth rate of China, the biggest buyer of industrial metals were higher than the predicted values. China’s GDP in 2014 grew by 7.4% y / y vs. 7.3% expected. However, the IMF has revised forecasts for a fall in the rate of growth of China in 2015, and is in fact the sentence to the asset. Thus, we do not exclude a new attempt to return to the metal recently reached lows. A good entry point for short positions may be the level of $ 2.7.

Foreign exchange market

USD / RUB came under pressure yesterday on a new wave of sales of oil, although it is worth noting that by the end of trading the ruble still walked away from the lows of the day. Naturally, the main influencing factor for the pair remain quotes «black gold», but interest in the ruble can still gain a foothold closer to the 26 January, when the expected large tax payments. In addition, it is necessary to take into account the fact that the Bank of Russia on the same day auctions will start lending banks in dollars bail of foreign currency loans. Limit of funds for each auction will be 1 billion. This combination of positive factors for the ruble can help the couple to lose about 3 rubles in the next trading sessions. Short-term goal on the way down can be a mark of 63.00.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from January 20, 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners