Review of the world’s major financial markets from January 19, 2015

Stock markets shook on Monday, and the tone of trading asked the Chinese authorities, limiting the possibility of the three largest brokers in opening an account for margin trading. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) at the end of trading day lost 1.4%. Meanwhile, Britain’s FTSE added about 0.5%, while Germany’s DAX closed almost neutral. US stock indexes traded in the red again, albeit in small.

The market has already digested the topic with the Swiss franc, and has not lived up to the ECB meeting, therefore Monday, investors used to correct what went wrong in the favor of the US dollar at the beginning. However, the performances of famous insider Fed Hilzenrata little strengthened the position of the US currency. So, EUR / USD rose to the maximum 1.1638, but closed in the area of ​​1.1605. GBP / USD was able to grow up to 1.5178, but after failing to break above, rolled into the area close to 1.51110. USD / JPY gradually strengthening its position, reaching the area yesterday to 117.55 at the end of the auction. USD / RUB behaved with restraint, a little oslabnuv at the opening due to the fact that S & P has postponed its decision.

Oil prices fluctuated within narrow ranges, despite another batch of harsh statements now from Iran’s oil minister. As a result, Brent opened trading at $ 49.99 a barrel, has grown to $ 50.32, and finished trading back around $ 48.78.

Precious metals have ceased to grow, but not ready to show a substantial correction of the current relatively high levels. So, XAU / USD closed at around $ 1276.50 per ounce, while silver traded near 17.70 at the close.

Forecast for Tuesday, January 20

Stock market

The German DAX index confidently struck a strong resistance at around 10,000 and has updated a record high at 10,313.5, showing growth of 6 trading days in a row. The thing is that the market after radical steps taken by the SNB, even more confidence in the inevitability of the program of quantitative easing by the European Central Bank. Now most investors expect a further stimulation will be announced on Thursday 22 January. Indeed, for the implementation of the program of the German index QE — it’s great news that could be the key to a fairly long rally index. Nevertheless, the ECB held a good job in preventing the market of their intentions, and the index is already fully laid it all in the price. Approaching meeting, and now there is a new risk — market may be disappointed size of the program. The least that the regulator has to offer, so as not to disappoint the market — it’s € 500-billion project. If the figure is below, you can expect an impressive short-term sales index. However, this is just another good opportunity to enter the market at lower levels, as the long-term growth in the DAX in terms ultrasoft monetary policy there is little doubt. Short-wave closing long positions in index may start a few days at a meeting, so be prepared to pick an asset to any more or less significant correction.


XAU / USD has already passed the one really strong resistance level of $ 1260 and reached the level of $ 1280 per ounce. Yesterday gold had to devote consolidation. We all know the volatility of the asset, so do not rule out the likelihood of a fairly deep retracement in the area of ​​$ 1,254 in the next few days. But in a global recession and a large number of problems of the largest economies of the world demand for safe and fairly cheap precious metal, in our opinion, in the long term will grow. By the way, yesterday there was another article confirming that Germany continues to grow its own gold return to their homeland. In 2014 Frankfurt received immediately 120 tons 35 tons of Paris, and 85 tons of New York. And, according to some estimates, in the next 5 years from New York will come another 300 tons, and Paris — 374 tons. Such interest of the largest economies in the world in this asset is not accidental. We have already heard about a similar activity on the part of the Netherlands, China and Russia. Thus, we recommend using Pullback to these marks to enter long positions at more attractive levels. It is possible that in the coming weeks will be raided at around $ 1,300 per ounce.

Foreign exchange market

USD / RUB spent Monday trading within narrow ranges. The ruble was glad that the rumors about the revision of Russia’s rating to «junk» by S & P and has not become a reality. This does not mean that it will not happen now — just the organization took a break and decided to more accurately assess the evolving situation in the Russian economy. It is likely that the review is still going to happen by the end of January. However, at the current moment, there is one undeniable ruble factor support — coming season tax payments. This month, the size of the severance tax could reach 160-260 billion rubles, and all taxes and fees may meet the 1 trillion rubles. If oil prices do not go to storm new lows, we can expect the return of the Russian currency in the area of ​​60.00.

While all worried about the Swiss franc, the yen has managed to significantly strengthen all the same long-known demand for «safe haven» in times of uncertainty. USD / JPY slipped to a month low of 115.84 and, in fact, the same route that has done a couple in early December last year. What good situation at the moment, now that borders a wide range of well-known:

1. grounds down below 115.50 in USD / JPY is not, because the US economy is feeling much better than the Japanese, and the national central banks monetary policy differs considerably in favor of the US dollar.

2. However, the rise above 121.80 at current constant conditions USD / JPY is not ready, because, in general, implemented by Prime Minister Abe measures yield good results, falling energy prices create the conditions for the prosperity of the corporate sector and a sharp depreciation of the national Currency positive impact on the export-oriented economy.

Under these circumstances, we recommend trading in a wide range 115,50-121,80 with a selling position on the approach to the upper limit and purchase positions on approaching the bottom. Current levels look pretty attractive entry points Longo. But the immediate goal on the way up can be a mark of 118.25.


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Review of the world's major financial markets from January 19, 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners