Review of the world’s major financial markets from January 15, 2015

The whole financial world was shocked yesterday that made the Swiss National Bank. Unbinding the national currency to the euro initially falls and currency, and indexes. Did not have time to react to it only Asia. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) at the end of trading day rooted to 0.9%. Meanwhile, Britain’s FTSE retained neutrality and Germany’s DAX gained 0.6%. US stock indexes are impressive losses.

SNB policy called «shock and awe» has caused sharp jumps currency, seemed imposing pressure on riskier than USD and CHF currency. In addition to the EUR / CHF, fallen to a record low of 0.8489, and hit a pair EUR / USD, to reach more than 12-year low of 1.1567. The decision of the Swiss regulator assured investors that the ECB is already on Jan. 22 will go on the implementation of QE, and under the influence of these expectations, the euro will remain up to the meeting. GBP / USD kept a low profile points, receiving support from the dynamics of the EUR / GBP. Steam rolled down to a minimum 1.5149, but the closure has returned to the area of ​​1.5170. USD / JPY has made an attack on the 116.23 mark, and was trading close to that level at the close. USD / RUB, as we expected, the bids opened gap down and noted the 3-day low at 63.26, but resumed the sale of oil returned to the area a couple of 64.30 at the close.

Oil prices have ceased to respond to statements by representatives of OPEC — as long as the cartel members complained about the record low energy demand, quotes were able to recover from the initial sales, but at the end of the day lost all earned. As a result, Brent opened trading at $ 49.79 a barrel, slipped to a local minimum of $ 48.10, and then managed to recover to 10 dnnevnomu a maximum of $ 52.38, and finished trading back around $ 48.20.

Precious metals cheered the stress that caused the SNB decision. Flight from riskier assets returned interest aktivam- «asylum». So, XAU / USD pullback from a local minimum of $ 1,226.00, reached the 4-month high of $ 1266.77 and closed at around $ 1258.80 per ounce, while silver has grown in the area of ​​17.20, a pullback from an intraday low of 16.67.

Forecast for Friday, January 16

Stock market

The decision of the Swiss National Bank to lift anchor franc to the euro at 1.20 caused great ripples of the financial market. Investors have long acted on proven algorithms, «in any strange situation run in risk-free assets.» Naturally, the main winners in this case became precious metals, as well as the franc, the yen and the US dollar. The main losers — the stock markets. And if the US and European indices have already played this news, then, for example, the Chinese Hang Seng (HSI) has yet to bear their part of the losses in part on correction after yesterday’s impressive growth, partly on concern that in fact the largest hedge fund in the world in the form of the SNB ceased to exist. What it promises financial market, yet to be determined, but obviously not good, and therefore riskier investments in stocks in the near future will not be the most popular option trading. The immediate goal for the HSI can be a mark 24100.

Commodities

Quotes XAU / USD yesterday attracted particular attention, as concerns about the implications of the decision imposing the SNB for the entire financial market have caused investors reflex reaction. Ultrasoft policy Swiss regulator was a harbinger of ultrasoft attitude of the ECB. Now there is little doubt that the European Central Bank will to implement the program of quantitative easing is already at the next meeting. At a time when most central banks are busy trying to save our economy from future problems, investors may prefer reliable and fairly cheap at current assets — gold. We continue to forecast strengthening of the metal in the 1st quarter, so we recommend to use Pullback on XAU / USD for a more attractive entry points Longo. The immediate goal of the asset after the breakdown of $ 1260 could be around $ 1275 per ounce.

Foreign exchange market

Ruble cheered on the totality of the two positive factors. First, oil prices show attempts to stabilize at higher levels even began yesterday downward correction in the first half of the day quickly ceased to instill traders hope that the «bottom groped.» Also yesterday, the Bank of Russia announced a reshuffle: the place of first deputy chairman of the Central Bank’s monetary policy was proposed Nekby who has a serious experience it is for banking business. Despite the fact that the sharp reaction USD / RUB in response to such a decision we have not seen, in the longer term, market participants assess this as a positive factor of influence on the national currency.

A EUR / USD yesterday updated a record 12-year low, and despite the fact that it was a reaction to the great surprise of the SNB, and most quickly has been played, everything that happened only yesterday confirmed the great potential of the fall of the single currency, at least, until the key ECB meeting, which will take place a week later. Who knows what was justified by the rush of the Swiss regulator to abolish binding to the euro, but the vast majority of market participants are confident that this training to ensure that the European Central Bank will be decided on the implementation of the QE program for 22 of January. It is possible that the recent meeting of the European Court on the legitimacy of the program OMT became the very last drop, triggering the SNB to radical action. Rather mild comments judicial body, in fact, given the «green light» is not the implementation of new and innovative incentives. Thus, we do not exclude new attempts to EUR / USD back to the area recently reached lows near 1.1570, then next target could be 1.1375. But be careful — it is possible that a few days before the long-awaited meeting of the ECB market starts to close all short positions in oversold currency.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from January 15, 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners