Review of the world’s major financial markets from January 14, 2015

Stock markets again came under pressure against the background of the same fears of slowing growth in the world economy caused by revised forecasts for a fall of the World Bank and the continuing collapse of commodity markets. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) at the end of trading day lost 0.54%. Meanwhile, Britain’s FTSE lost 1.0%, while Germany’s DAX gained nearly 0.7%. US stock indexes also suffered losses.

The foreign exchange market showed sharp fluctuations under the influence and fears of global recession and some economic reports. The US dollar suffered a loss in the second half of the day in connection with the release of weaker than expected retail sales excluding autos and gasoline. EUR / USD is trading at the beginning of 1.1771, slid to multi-year lows 1.1727 comments on the results of the European Court of program OMT, but returned to the area opening on disappointing US data. GBP / USD felt pretty good on the comments of the head of the Central Bank Governor Mark Carney and reports from the United States, managing to get away to a weekly maximum of 1.5268 and completing trades just above 1.52. USD / JPY continues to move down hard, rolled down to a month low 116.06, and closed in the area of ​​117.30. USD / RUB all day kept far away from the opening level of 65.49 to stabilize oil prices and verbal interventions by the Russian authorities.

Crude futures have stabilized a bit after a long period of decline. Even the growth of commercial stocks of crude oil and petroleum products in the United States were not able to return the «black gold» to the recent lows, and by the close of the trading day, we saw a sharp appreciation. As a result, Brent opened trading at $ 48.03 a barrel, slipped to a local minimum of $ 46.76, but managed to recover, ending trading at around $ 49.70.

Precious metals are not able to avoid a large-scale collapse in commodity markets and retreated from recent highs, but the decline was short-lived and soon gave way to increasing again. So, XAU / USD pullback from a local minimum of $ 1224.98 and closed near $ 1,230 per ounce, while silver has grown in the area of ​​16.90, a pullback from an intraday low of 16.52.

Forecast for Thursday, January 15

Stock market

US stock indexes are experiencing not best times, as shares in oil companies are suffering losses due to the weak energy market, and lower gasoline prices have not yet become an incentive for a sharp rise in consumption among the population. It is this last confirmed data on US retail sales, not taking into account the sales of automobiles and gasoline. Thus, the expected effect of «free money» to reduce the cost of Americans have not yet observed, and in the meantime, the global economy is in a rather weak condition, which may further limit the profits of the corporate sector. Today will be published data on the US producer price index, which can only reiterate the weak price pressures and the likelihood of developing a new problem for the US economy against the background of restrained consumer demand — disinflation. All these factors combined with the not very positive financial results of the corporate sector may put additional pressure on the indices NASDAQ-100 (NQ) and Dow Jones (YM).

Commodities

Oil prices slightly adjusted on Tuesday reached record lows, but it does not mean that the «bottom has fumbled.» The main reason for the collapse of the energy market is to reduce the global demand due to the slowdown in business activity in the major economies of the world. Add to this the sharply higher oil production in the US and active verbal intervention by OPEC. It turns out that in the current circumstances, none of the factors of influence not left the stage and in the coming months will not go away, and, therefore, the potential drop is still quite there. Brent current correction makes sense to use to enter shorts at more attractive levels, with the immediate goal at $ 46.00 per barrel.

Touch today another product. You could not help but notice what happens to the copper (HG), even if you are trading currencies exclusively, because this metal is guilty of a sudden collapse of the Australian dollar. In fact, yesterday asset updated 5.5-year low, reaching the level of $ 2.42 per pound, unprecedented since July 2009. No wonder: the metal is in a downtrend from July 25 — for 2014 it lost 15.78%, and it looks like this is not going to stop. During the first week of January copper lost another 10.8% for the general panic about reducing business activity in the world. Fuel to the fire yesterday poured World Bank revised upward its forecast for global growth to fall. Copper is kept from falling strong support at around $ 2.72 per pound (at least November 2010), but it tries to open the way for a much more impressive collapse, and we do not exclude that the asset can reach up to $ 1.25 for 2015. What is interesting in the metals market there is the same war for market share, which we see in the energy market. Key players advantage of the situation to strengthen its position in the future, so it is the lowest-cost producers and help copper prices move lower. If you look at the charts of oil and copper, that is the feeling that the metal is in the initial stage of large-scale sales. The next strong support level at $ 1.2475 looks (at least December 2008). In the current situation, you can choose two tactics: short-term longs for correction from current lows, as well as long-term shorts with a higher entry point and the target in the area of ​​this mark.

Foreign exchange market

USD / RUB yesterday went into consolidation mode in the background to stop the decline in oil prices. In addition to a couple of factors influenced the combination of multi-directional action. Confirmation of rising tensions with Ukraine after failed negotiations «Norman format» and reports of fighting in the vicinity of the airport in Donetsk can not put pressure on the ruble, as it excludes any likelihood of early withdrawal penalties. At the same time, Russian authorities have increased verbal intervention: Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said yesterday that oil prices and the ruble strengthened in the near future. This is, in part, calmed speculators, but for how long, especially given the increasing likelihood of revision of Russia’s sovereign rating to decrease agency S & P. Hope remains for exporters, which may increase the demand for the Russian ruble in anticipation of future tax payments (January 26). In addition, the sharp appreciation of oil prices during the US session after the close of trading on the ruble may lead to the discovery of USD / RUB gap down.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from January 14, 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners