Review of the world’s major financial markets from January 13, 2015

Stock markets rebounded slightly and the technical correction, and on positive expectations for the results of the financial statements that supported the already published data on company Alcoa. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) at the end of trading day rooted to 1.2%. Meanwhile, Britain’s FTSE rose by 0.24%, while Germany’s DAX gained nearly 0.8%. US stock indexes were neutral.

The foreign exchange market is clearly very nervous experiencing a lack of economic reports, as’d like to move, but not on anything. As a result, we are already seeing the second day in a row sell the dollar in the first half of the day and a sharp recovery in demand for it in the second. EUR / USD is trading at the beginning of 1.1832, tried to gain a foothold, but soon launched a movement going down to 1.1752 and completing trades nearby. In GBP / USD at least have reason to move: yesterday’s publication of inflation data confirmed the weak price pressures (0.5% y / y vs. 0.7%), which only further delay the transition to the policy tightening of the Bank of England. But then by Mark Carney, and said that much of Britain deflation should not be afraid. As a result, the vapor from the opening level of 1.5170 to 1.5076 slipped, but in the area found the demand for bulls and closed trades near opening levels. USD / JPY after unsuccessful attempts to escape below 117.50 117.90 rolled into the area, where he completed trades. USD / RUB started the day at 62.60, and almost without stopping, moving up for all trades under the influence of the fallen to new record lows in oil prices. Closure occurred in the area of ​​65.30.

Apart from the fact that the market is actively digesting statement largest financial services companies about lowering forecasts for energy prices for «black gold» on Tuesday, pressured and expectations of a sharp increase in oil reserves as part of a published report on Wednesday. As a result, Brent opened trading at $ 48.43 a barrel and was non-stop down, reaching levels not seen since March 2009 — $ 46.38 per barrel. Nevertheless, at this stage in the game to take the bulls, who were able to recover some of the losses of the asset. Closing occurred near 48.40.

Precious metals continue to enjoy what is happening in the energy market, as some investors apparently fleeing to safer assets. So, XAU / USD failed to break through the 3-month high at $ 1244.24 and closed near $ 1,230 per ounce, while silver has grown in the area of ​​17.17, but roll back to 17.00 at the close.

Forecast for Wednesday, January 14

Stock market

One of the most significant barriers to the implementation of the program of quantitative easing (QE) the ECB may now be overcome. The Court delivered its opinion on the benefits of the program OMT. Recall that it was launched in 2012 and became part of the plan Mario Draghi called «whatever it takes to save the euro zone.» In fact the program was never used, but it has caused serious rejection in Germany and even considered by the Constitutional Court. German Constitutional Court decided that the case is too serious to treat it at the local level, and redirect it to the European Court. So, the first hearing will be held today, and although there are no restrictive decision is taken, we get an official opinion on the case that either eliminate or strengthen the barrier to ECB QE. It is possible that by 08.30 GMT, we received the news on the subject, so that it is at this moment can not be excluded sharp fluctuations on the German index DAX. If the court harshly criticized, it will reduce the chances of further stimulus measures by the ECB, and, therefore, and push the index to reduce the probability of an area 9600.

Commodities

Despite the fact that oil prices every day beat perennial antirecord, OPEC representatives not only not going to interfere, but, on the contrary, it seems that «is a rage.» Yesterday, the UAE Minister of Energy has once again stated that the representatives of the cartel will not reduce production volumes to support energy prices. He stressed that awaits action by the American oil producers, for which the process becomes unprofitable.

Meanwhile, Brent quotations have every chance to continue the downward movement in the area of ​​$ 40 per barrel. However, in the near future we do not rule out short-term correction after a long fall. This requires a catalyst, and on Wednesday we get this: the US Energy Information Agency at the end of the previous week publish a report on commercial stocks in the world’s largest economy. According to a survey of news agency Bloomberg, market participants believe that an increase of 1.7 million barrels and reach $ 384.1 million, which will be 8% above the five-year average for this time of year. These expectations have already been laid in the price of Brent, so that even a slight reduction in inventory levels can trigger a rollback of the asset to the area of ​​$ 49.40.

Foreign exchange market

USD / RUB yesterday still passed the evening of the positions earned by the fall of oil. Once Brent beginning of a reversal after extensive sales, the ruble began to recover. It is possible that today we see a similar trend, given the short-term correction of Brent. In addition, another factor of pressure on the Russian currency leaves the scene yesterday on the ruble pressured and reported the failure of the negotiations, «Norman Quartet» on the subject of Ukraine. Most likely, today the market has already forgotten about this story, as well as on the subject to the ratings. Moreover, it is likely that by the end of the week the ruble will get stronger interest from exporters. Two weeks later, will have to pay the severance tax, excise duties and VAT (26 January), so that many of the stocks of the ruble may begin to worry in advance. Under such conditions, the probability of return to the area of ​​60.00 is quite high.

And a little bit of the world market. If you look at the first two trading weeks of January, there is a sense of «deja vu» — we’ve seen the end of 2013 a sharp increase in demand for USD / JPY. Then the market believe that the sale of the yen — the best investment option, however, as you can see, only at the end of 2014 these rates were justified. It is unlikely that someone from aggressive speculators held up to that point. And here we are opening in 2015 in the same euphoria: the market there are rumors that by the middle of the couple can overcome the mark of 130.00. However, we are slowly beginning to emerge doubt. Recent data on the US labor market showed a very restrained wage growth. When falling energy prices it only increases the chances of extremely low growth CPI. And in low price pressure the Federal Reserve is no need to hurry with the rate increase. As soon as the market starts to understand this, USD / JPY may have fallen sharply back below 117.00. And today published data on retail sales may be the catalyst for the most sales of the US dollar against the yen.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from January 13, 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners