Review of the world’s major financial markets from January 12, 2015

Stock markets showed contradictory dynamics, but there were more negative — falling oil weighed on the stock oil sector. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) at the end of trading day closed almost neutral. Meanwhile, Britain’s FTSE lost about 0.8%, while Germany’s DAX gained nearly 1%. US stock indexes also suffered losses.

The foreign exchange market opened this week in mixed feelings, since morning the US dollar experienced a sell-off in the afternoon and regained all the lost. Part of the market digested the data on the US labor market, released last Friday, in part — the continuing decline in commodity prices. EUR / USD is trading at the beginning of 1.1847, but after a brief attempt to strengthen started to fall, slip into 1.1785 area, but completed trades near opening levels. GBP / USD has come under pressure to talk about mergers and acquisitions, going down to a minimum 1.5097 from 1.5176 opening level. Couple managed to restore the area of ​​1.5190 to close. USD / JPY in the morning made attempts to break through the 118.00 support, but they were unsuccessful. Closing took place in the area of ​​118.30. USD / RUB from the opening showed a moderate strengthening, reaching the maximum of 63.05, but closed in the area of ​​62.60.

At this time the cause of oil sales were not the fears of weak demand, but rather an authoritative view of several financial companies. The fact that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Societe Generale SA have revised their forecasts for the quotations of «black gold» in the fall. As a result, Brent opened trading at $ 50.36 a barrel, while kept close, but even in Europe began to experience pressure, updating more than 5.5-year low at 48.42 and closed in the region of $ 48.60.

Precious metals are slowly but surely creeping up and support these dynamics have not only growing geopolitical tensions, but also sad predictions rating agencies in terms of growth of the world economy. So, XAU / USD closed at around $ 1236 per ounce, a pullback from an intraday low of $ 1,217.65 and silver — remained near 16.60.

Forecast for Tuesday, January 13

Stock market

The current week will bring the first financial statements of US corporations and create conditions for the high volatility of the US stock indices. It is expected that revenue growth in the fourth quarter will be about 1%, which is below the 1.6% mentioned by the end of the quarter, and well below the 8.4% hoped for at the beginning of the quarter. All the matter in oil prices, which clearly hit on the profits of the energy and related sectors, but brought their dividends industries based on consumption, as well as representatives of the manufacturing industry and airlines. Most likely, before the data will be published on the shares included in the NASDAQ-100 (NQ) and Dow Jones (YM) (Wednesday and Thursday), the market will be afraid of the negative impact from the energy, which means that it is possible and further drop in these indices with immediate goals in the area of ​​4100 and 17420, respectively.

And a little about stock news. Shares of Yahoo (YHOO) reached a historical high in November last year and since they could not resume growth. However, in January 8th asset managed to add 3.4% to $ 50.39 per share on rumors that come YHOO merger with the American media company AOL. Despite the fact that the head of Yahoo Marissa Mayer denied such speculation, talk of such an outcome does not cease since July last year. Recall that under the leadership of Meyer Yahoo has an active policy acquisitions. In addition, the updates were made line of mobile applications, as well as works on the launch of a new advertising platform. However, the Internet company’s revenue continues to fall. It is possible that the lack of results put Marissa going to have to decide on the merger, which, according to some estimates, will cost synergies of $ 1, -1.5 billion dollars and will help Yahoo make tax optimization. As long as the rumors are finally laid to rest, the shares may well continue to strengthen with the immediate goal at $ 51.20.

Commodities

So now not only representatives of OPEC, and the whole world persuades oil prices go lower. Offshore oil producers in recent days have closed the maximum number of wells in 1991, expecting quotes Brent will continue to move down to the area of ​​$ 40 per barrel. Intervened in the case and analysts Goldman, confirmed that if someone wants to «kill» the shale gas revolution, it is necessary to keep the quotes «black gold» at such low levels for an extended period of time. At the moment, we are witnessing the search for the «bottom», and seems to be around $ 50 is still not suitable for this role. After three trading sessions in a row we have seen record lows update doubt that prices will go lower still, and may touch $ 40 per barrel, gradually dissipate.

However, it is recognized that a further fall is limited not only due to technical factors, but also due to the fundamental. Recent data Baker Hughes Inc. suggest that the number of working wells in the United States decreased by 61 to 1421. This decline was the highest since February, 1991 — since the Gulf War. It is clear that the decline in production we will not see even in such conditions until 2016, but we must remember that the rights market expectations, and these expectations may be enough to reverse the trend, if not for Brent, then at least provoke a short-term upward correction. In addition, at such low levels it is possible that some oil-producing countries have started to enhanced verbal intervention. Thus, it is advisable to be careful and start to look for the «bottom», which can be located closer to around $ 43 per barrel.

Foreign exchange market

USD / RUB steadfastly keeps around 63.00, despite the fact that oil prices continue to hit multi-year «anti-record». The output from the Christmas holidays not made a splash in the market — a pair of all-time highs until beaten, although it is possible that attempts to get closer to the area of ​​73.00 will be taken in the near future. His role here can play several factors: the continuing fall in the price of oil, a possible revision of Russia’s rating to «junk», as well as the expected purchases of foreign currency by the Ministry of Finance in order to replenish the reserves. In any case, as in December, any attempt to break the historical maximum will have a short-term nature and used by speculators to buy ruble at more attractive levels.

Since Tuesday will be pretty full of British economic reports today touch on a pair GBP / USD. Last week, the pair has managed to update nearly 1.5-year low after 5-day fall, but on Friday recovered some of the losses. At the moment, for the pound has meaning only one thing — the dynamics of inflation. The growth rate of the UK economy remains quite good, and business activity, although slowing, but still remains at high levels. Problems of the eurozone and reduced inflationary pressure — the main reasons that the Bank of England will not rush to raise your bid. Thus, if the figures published today PPI and CPI will confirm further decline in prices under the influence of falling crude oil, it only returns the sales of the British pound with the immediate goal at 1.5060.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from January 12, 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners