Review of the world’s major financial markets from February 9, 2015

Financial markets yesterday lived three major events: first, the number of oil rigs, according to the company Baker Hughes, continued to fall, which supported the oil price: Brent has grown to 1.5-month high of 60.57 bbl. / US $., supporting demand for the Russian ruble, which closed trading around 65.00.

Secondly, Europe is still worried about the situation with Greece, especially after several well-known economists have predicted the inevitability of its exit from the eurozone. In addition, Athens and themselves trying to add fuel to the fire, alluding to the fact that if they come out of the E-18, the following, by analogy, to become Italy’s debt burden of 120% of GDP. This uncertainty is putting pressure on the EUR / USD, and on the DAX.

Third, published over the weekend data from China confirmed drop in trading activity in the country, as the demand of a large economy to foreign goods decreased by 19.9%. This caused a wave of flight from risky assets and concerns about too slow global economic growth. As a result, this added precious metals: gold (XAU / USD) and Silver (XAG / USD) gained 0.5% and 1.8%, respectively.

Published over the weekend data on the trade balance of China confirmed the decline in trading activity: the volume of imports fell by 19.9%, while exports — 3.3%. Perhaps the decrease is due to the approach of the New Year according to the lunar calendar.
The speech of the RBA Glenn Stevens has not caused much interest among the public, as any comments about monetary policy or the national currency was not followed
Germany’s trade balance amounted to 21.8 billion euros compared with an expected 18.3 billion, and the index of exports increased by 3.4%, confirming that the cheap national currency supports export activity in the country.
The number of new buildings in Canada amounted to 187.3 thousand. Vs. 177.5 thousand., Which confirms the rather stable state of the housing market.

Forecast for Tuesday, February 10

Stock market

New Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said on Sunday that he would not accept an extension of the current program of economic salvation, joining the opposition with EU leaders. Eurozone wants from Athens is this — that next Thursday at the summit of all previous agreements remained in force. The current plan has to expire on February 28, but it is clear that Tsipras is ready to apply for renewal, though wants to negotiate an interim agreement with the creditors. Who is the new leader have to buy time, and the EU need to find a way out of the situation in which she blackmailed with minimal losses. On Wednesday scheduled an emergency meeting of finance ministers of the block, to discuss the situation. Nevertheless, taking into account all comments head of Greece, it is unlikely any agreement will be reached in the coming days. This means uncertainty in the market, and the flight from risky assets and pressure on European stock indexes. DAX has gone down by 1% down for the first trading day of the week, and may continue to fall with the immediate goal at around 10490. In the current environment can be considered short-term sales options with tight stop-loss, or use the current decline for a successful entry point long positions as part of a long-term strategy.

Commodities

Prices for Brent oil actually did not respond to a stronger dollar, continuing to trade near $ 60. / Bbl. Its role could play and new data from Baker Hughes, confirmed the decline in the number of active drilling rigs in the United States for the next 83 to 1140. Thus, the peak levels seen on October 10, the index has fallen by 30%, suggesting that the downward trend in the market energy may come to an end in the near future. Based on the correlation of oil prices and the index number of drilling rigs in 2008-2009, it can be assumed that a reversal of the downward trend will occur later this month. By about the time when the number of active rigs will reach 800. Thus, the data from Baker Hughes can help to identify the best entry point into the market long positions at the turn of the current uptrend.

Foreign exchange market

USD / RUB is under pressure of expectations. Investors were so tired sell ruble, which gladly seized on the hope of stabilizing the international economic and political situation in Russia. Firstly, the Russian currency brings joy to the continued strengthening of the oil price — Brent oil gradually gets to around $ 60. / Bbl. Second, if the hope that the meeting scheduled for Wednesday in Minsk still yield positive results: after a lengthy multi-stage talks in Kiev, Moscow and in the framework of the conference call chances do exist. Thus, to the extent the market learns about the outcome of the negotiations we can see a gradual strengthening of the ruble with the probability of returning to a maximum of 4 February at around 63.93.

GBP / USD has put some of their positions under the influence of strong US data, however, may be a temporary phenomenon, as the British economic reports began to delight us again. Business activity in the UK manufacturing industry has really grown. In addition, even superficially disappointing data on the trade balance with the more detailed analysis shows positive trends: the trade deficit increased to 10.2 billion pounds from 9.3 billion in December, but only due to the surge of oil imports (export growth to 0 1% against the growth of imports by 2.7%). This suggests that manufacturers are trying to capitalize on the current trend in the energy market, and it is a good pledge to increase efficiency and accelerate business growth in the coming months.

Thus, in the medium term, we adhere to «bullish» sentiment on the pound sterling. Nevertheless, the publication of the quarterly inflation report from the Bank of England could be a serious test of strength of currency in the coming days. Despite the fact that the economic reports speak about positive changes and make investors hope for a speedy transition to tighten, the report may confirm expectations of weak inflationary pressures and discard GBP / USD back to 1.5130 area.

Твой выбор

Search

The best broker

Link to Us



Review of the world's major financial markets from February 9, 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners