Review of the world’s major financial markets from February 5, 2015

Stock indexes in unison demonstrated strengthening on Thursday, with the exception of Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI), which at the end of trading day down 1.24%. Meanwhile, Britain’s FTSE added 0.6%, while the German DAX — 0,78%. US stock indexes also showed good growth to the close of trading on expectations of the results of the report of the American Non-Farm Payrolls.

Currency markets are preparing for major economic report of the week — US data on the labor market. In addition, the «bombshell» sounded the ECB’s decision not to accept Greek bonds as collateral. It’s early in the morning to put pressure on the euro, but currency could recover on rumors about the demand from the Swiss National Bank. As a result, EUR / USD from 1.1344 opening level rolled to a minimum 1.1303, but rebounded in the afternoon in the area of ​​1.1480. GBP / USD continued categorical upward movement. Couple has grown to one-month high of 1.5343 opening level of 1.5179, closed in the area of ​​1.5335. USD / JPY preferred not to move to the US «non-Farm», after spending most of the day near the mark of 117.40. USD / RUB initially grew with the support of falling oil prices, but on reaching the maximum 68.27 pair slipped to around 66.00 at the close.

Oil prices seem to have decided to stop its decline and stay within a narrow range. The overall negative sentiment on global growth expectations leveled the weakening US dollar. As a result, Brent opened trading at $ 54.48 a barrel, down to a minimum $ 53.06, but adjust to the close of trading at around $ 56.80 per barrel.

Precious metals continue to remain under pressure in the overall reduction in demand for safe assets. XAU / USD from the opening level of $ 1270.19 down to a minimum $ 1258.75, but returned to the closure of around $ 1267 per ounce, while silver traded near 17.30 at the close.

Forecast for Friday, February 6

Stock market

US indexes are already prepared for the publication of data on the US labor market, an increase of more than 1% on the NASDAQ-100 (NQ) and Dow Jones (YM). The fact is that at the moment investors have already laid much in the price: the strong pace of US economic growth and a steady increase in jobs and the likelihood of Fed rate hike in the coming quarters. Thus, at this stage to surprise the market will be very difficult — levels of employment payrolls should significantly exceed forecasts and inflationary pressure on wages should accelerate. Only in this situation indexes deployed its course and return all earnings on Thursday. In any other situation, the market will start to price in the likelihood of a prolonged period of low interest rates, which can stimulate the growth of benchmarks for 4280 and 17870, respectively.

Commodities

Please note, the price of gold has several times tried unsuccessfully to break support $ 1260/55, but every time I turn around and resumed growth. While the quotations held above this area, the uptrend on XAU / USD remains unchanged. The market at the moment is at a crossroads: either switch to riskier assets in search of high returns, or to park their money in «safe haven», and in the case of gold at a fairly attractive level. The choice will depend on the evolving situation. It turns out that a large number of central banks turned into incentive regime is actually considered to be weak economic growth. And it works in favor of buying gold. However, there is the US, which are gaining momentum and ready to move in tightening mode, and in such a situation, the dollar will be more attractive purchase, because in addition to its stability and is likely to receive a higher return with the tightening of monetary policy the Fed. Thus, in the current environment, weak reports from the US, especially on the labor market, inflation and consumer spending may provoke a surge in demand for gold. The immediate goal for the asset could be around $ 1280.20 per ounce.

Foreign exchange market

USD / RUB today be important and interesting day, and it is likely that the tone of trading for the pair will be asked not oil prices, and the behavior of the US dollar. Let’s start with the fact that the number of long positions in the US currency is close to the maximum levels (total volume of almost $ 48 billion.) And already last week beginning to decline slightly from the peaks. Moreover, the decision of the ECB, SNB, RBA, Bank of Canada, Bank of Singapore, China and Romania to ease monetary policy the Fed is doing so one of the most aggressive regulators among the largest economies in the world. So, hurry up does not make sense, especially in conditions of low inflationary pressures. But in the price of the US dollar is already on the likelihood of a rate hike in the first half of 2015. If expectations change, the elimination of excess of long positions is inevitable. Under such conditions, the ruble has a chance to harden slightly from current levels with the immediate goal at around 63.50, after which the movement can continue to 62.60.

Fluctuations in the US dollar in the major currency pairs are likely reflects investors’ concerns about the outcome of Friday’s labor market report (Non-Farm Payrolls). And, in fact, traders fears are justified, given a series of indicators on employment, which we traditionally use as leading. One of the most important indicators is always a component of the ISM employment in the services sector, given the service orientation of the US economy. Despite the fact that the main ISM index in the industry exceeded forecasts, the employment component fell to its lowest level in nearly annual period: 51.6 against 55.7 in December. A similar indicator in the manufacturing sector fell to 54.1 from 56.0. The head of the agency ISM Nivz acknowledged that, in general, the economic indicators are growing, with the exception of the labor market, where the planned slowdown. It is worth remembering that now in addition to the number of jobs it makes sense to pay attention to the average increase in hourly wages — an indicator partly reflects inflationary pressures. Thus, if wage growth will slow down, and the employment rate is lower than the 200 thousand US dollar may fall under the impressive sales. For USD / JPY, this may mean the movement to the mark with a probability of breakdown 116.46 (depending on the strength of frustration) and the further aim at 115.90.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from February 5, 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners