Review of the world’s major financial markets from February 4, 2015

Stock markets showed unprincipled dynamics. As a result, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) at the end of trading day down 0.39%. Meanwhile, Britain’s FTSE lost 0.79%, while the German DAX — 0,9%. US stock indexes were kept neutral

On Wednesday, in the morning there were two pieces of news on the continuation of the «parade of softness»: China cut reserve requirements, and the Romanian Central Bank cut interest rates. But beyond that, the market digested the situation with Greece, as new leaders try to negotiate the payment of a debt, and this fact alone is already perceived by investors in a rather positive manner. EUR / USD had to pay part of the earned Tuesday: pair down to a minimum level of 1.1385 from 1.1478 opening and closing trades slightly higher. GBP / USD, on the contrary, made up for the loss, especially against the background of another positive report on PMI (57,2 against the forecast of 56.3 in the service sector). Couple grows to 3-week high of 1.5249, closed in the area of ​​1.5210. USD / JPY has become more restrained in their movements, this time trading in the range 117,23-117,99. USD / RUB was able to recover some of the losses, although opened bids «gap» down at around 65.06. However, the drop in oil prices caused the pair to the area of ​​66,80.

Crude oil futures slow down a bit. In addition, the report Energy Agency and the United States showed an increase in commercial energy reserves of 6.3 million barrels, compared to the expected 3.467 million. As a result, Brent opened trading at $ 56.99 a barrel, has grown to $ 58.04, but adjust to the close of trading at around $ 54, 70 per barrel.

Precious metals are still in correction mode that is supported by good economic reports from Europe, giving the feeling that the world economy will recover faster than expected. So, XAU / USD from the opening level of $ 1262.29 reached the maximum of $ 1,272.85, but the closure came down at around $ 1265 per ounce, while silver traded near 17.40 at the close.

Forecast for Thursday, February 5

Stock market

Yesterday FTSE suffered a loss, for the most part, under the pressure of oil prices, which launched its weakening shares of British oil companies. However, today, the benchmark has every chance to regain ground in response to the meeting of the Bank of England’s monetary policy. Recall that the last protocol Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) showed that the decision to leave everything in the same place as it was passed unanimously, ie two representatives of nine abandoned the need to raise rates. This further delayed the transition to standby mode tightening — at the beginning of 2016. In addition, inflationary pressures continue to weaken: Within the last meeting MPC noted the possibility that the CPI will fall below 0% in the first half of 2015. In such circumstances, at the time to think about reducing rates. And although the «softening» is unlikely to happen, even speculation on this subject can support the British benchmark. Thus, we do not rule out the possibility of movement in the area of ​​FTSE 6880.

Commodities

Prices of Brent crude oil showed a three-day growth in a row, but on Wednesday stopped. It gave us a movement? First, we decided on the strong support — it is clear that the market is not ready to pull prices below US $ 47.70. / Bbl. in the current environment. Thus, we can say that the «bottom has groped», at least in the medium term. Secondly, we decided on a medium-term trading range: the lower boundary of the 47.70 strong barrier at the top left area of ​​58.90 / 59.00. It is likely that the next few weeks will be an asset to trade within the current range with a probability of returning to its lower border in the wake of a stronger US dollar. In this regard, published in Friday’s report on the labor market may be decisive for the two assets. Rather weak performance thrown back expectations for interest rates for a longer period, pushing the dollar and sustain interest in oil.

Foreign exchange market

USD / RUB able to restore some of their positions yesterday and all thanks to oil prices that have stopped the recent rally. Brent slipped yesterday to around $ 54. / Bbl. and does not intend to show recovery. The market is fully aware that the current dynamics of the Russian currency has no relation to the positive developments in the domestic economy. The whole set of negative factors still in place: sanctions restricting access to foreign capital; slow pace of economic growth in Russia on set of reasons; high inflation; strained relations with Ukraine, leading to an outflow of capital; and, of course, still a low cost oil. However, in the next few days, until the publication of a report on the US labor market (NFP), most likely, the ruble will remain positive dynamics with the support of the weak dollar and strong oil with a probability of return to the area of ​​62.00 by the end of the week provided a disappointing non -farmov.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from February 4, 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners