Review of the world’s major financial markets from February 3, 2015

Stock markets cheered on the overall growth of investor optimism and recovery in demand for riskier assets. As a result, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) at the end of trading day virtually unchanged. Meanwhile, Britain’s FTSE rose 1.2%, while Germany’s DAX gained 0.64%. US stock indexes showed a good strengthening completion trading day.

The foreign exchange market the first half of the day spent in boring bands, even the unexpected decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to lower rates following the rest of the Central Bank. AUD / USD has reacted to this fall for the next 5.5-year low at around 0.7625. EUR / USD most of the day fluctuated around 1.1350, but in the evening found the strength to break through the barrier and rushed to the area almost 2-week high of 1.1533. The movement was initially triggered by technical factors, and then the words Kocherlakoty from the Fed, saying that there is no need to raise rates in 2015. GBP / USD was also able to gain a foothold in the morning after reaching lows near 1.4987. The pair reached 1.5197 high, and then fell back slightly. USD / JPY continued fluctuations in the range 116,80-117,80, and not being able to break through the lower boundary. USD / RUB continued to suffer losses on the rise in oil prices from the opening level of 67.72 to 65.05.

Crude oil futures continued to move up, now due to weak data on US oil and gas sector. Several oil companies have started talking about spending cuts in 2015, which could not support the demand for the asset. As a result, Brent opened trading at $ 55.11 a barrel, has grown to $ 58.97 monthly high, but adjust to the close of trading at around $ 57.70 per barrel.

Precious metals are still in correction mode, although every day make an effort to get closer to the nearest resistance. Their role and the increasing demand for riskier assets due to the recovery in oil prices, which pulls the confidence in a higher rate of growth of the world economy. So, XAU / USD from the opening level of $ 1274.94 reached the maximum of $ 1,285.91, but the closure came down at around $ 1262 per ounce, while silver traded near 17.30 at the close.

Forecast for Wednesday, February 4

Stock market

Stock markets are in a good mood, which is fueled not only rather weak data from the US, gives investors hope for a longer period of «soft» monetary policy from the Fed. The fact that a sudden reversal in the energy markets assured traders that «rumors about the weakness of the world economy» is too exaggerated. A surge in demand for risky assets immediately supported the dynamics of stock indices. Doubts on this background is the index DAX, which, at first, had reached unprecedented heights, and, secondly, is still under the pressure of uncertainty with Greece. Greek Prime Minister Tsipras statements about the need to end the relationship with the «troika» still make us think about the threat of default, and any careless statement could cause an impressive correction of the index. We recommend you catch such downward correction to enter the market at a Long attractive levels, as a long period of growth DAX is no doubt due to the intention of the ECB to implement an ambitious program of quantitative easing. The immediate goal with downward correction may be a mark 10560.

Commodities

So, a new day brought a new food for thought on the energy market. The new party companies in this sector reported on Tuesday that would cut costs during the current year, as oil prices have forced the industry to limit its ambitions. British Petroleum (BP) said it will cut capital spending by 20%, and postpone some investment projects. The company is not the only one of its kind. Chinese colleague CNOOC announced spending cuts of 35%, Royal Dutch Shell — for $ 15 billion in investment projects planned for the next three years. Chevron (CVX) will reduce costs by 13%. All this means bleak prospects for the oil and gas sector workers, but quite a good news for the participants «oil war», because it means that the number of applicants for market share is rapidly declining. In such circumstances, and against the background of such news is likely that oil prices will continue to move up and now the immediate goal for Brent could be around $ 60 per barrel. Her breakout can confirm a reversal of the downward trend for oil.

Foreign exchange market

USD / RUB is still under pressure and has the potential to open trading environment «gap» down, because during the American session, quotes Brent able to get even closer to the coveted around $ 60. / Bbl. In addition, it is worth noting another factor that supports and oil prices, and the Russian ruble — the weakening of the US dollar due to the revaluation expectations for Fed rate. The market more and more doubts about the need for the Fed to tighten monetary policy in a low inflation and weak global growth. If the next report on the US labor market will strengthen the doubt, it can support the further strengthening of the ruble in order to near 62.00. Nevertheless, it is worth emphasizing that this is the only growth factors of the Russian currency — own reasons to restore its position in the ruble is not observed.

EUR / USD has demonstrated a long-awaited correction on a combination of factors. Firstly, the number of short positions in the single currency no longer gave us peace of mind. Secondly, the rise in oil prices returned interest in riskier assets, as in the case of EUR / USD is the euro. Third, the market began to price the probability of delay Fed rate hike, with yesterday’s speech Kocherlakoty only added fuel to the fire. Fourth, according to the dynamics of EUR / CHF, the Swiss National Bank is attempting to establish a new binding, which means that the regulator we will see a steady demand for the single currency. Fifth, last week marked a huge influx of investment in the European stock market was the highest since June last year, which makes one believe that a constant demand for European assets downward trend in the euro can be developed. In the context of all these factors, we can assume that the upward movement has not yet exhausted itself, and the next target may be the mark of 1.1640.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from February 3, 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners