Review of the world’s major financial markets from February 26, 2015

Thursday, for the most part, been very quiet, with most investors prefer to gradually get rid of the US dollar after the recent performances rather soft Janet Yellen. Economic reports from Europe only give additional incentives to move up: and the euro and the pound, the yen and slowly but surely strengthened until they came to the US inflation data.

We can not say that the report was much more than expected, but clean CPI, which excludes volatile food prices and gasoline was indeed slightly higher than expected and provoked strong demand for the dollar. So active that the euro within a few hours lost almost two figures. In addition, it struck and the precious metals market, gold has moved away from high near $ 1,219 per ounce to 1208 and silver trading day closed in the area of ​​16.60. Brent also suffered losses, touching 59.60, but strong demand bulls regained energy source above $ 60 / bbl. to closing. But the stock index everything that happened did not have much impact.

Economic data:

  • Germany in February, the number of unemployed — 20 thousand. Vs. -10 thousand.
  • UK: 4 sq., The GDP growth rate of 0.5% q / sq. M, 2.7% y / y, as expected
  • USA: January, CPI excluding food and energy + 0.2% vs. + 0.1% m / m.

Forecast for Friday, 27 February

Stock market

Today will be published data on the growth rate of the US in the 4th quarter. This is the revised figure and refers to a rather remote past, but given the importance of economic reports for the current market dynamics, the deviation from the predicted values ​​still can cause fluctuations in the US indices. In addition, we have to admit that after a long growth with the update record highs benchmarks must still show the correction. Dow Jones has already embarked on this path came under pressure of unfavorable data from the US as likely Fed rate hike, and it may well follow the example of the NASDAQ 100 with a probability of return to the area of ​​4428.

In addition, it is not bright prospects and a broad index S & P 500, because, according to the latest estimates, the EPS growth rate could reach only 2.8% for the whole 2015 — in December forecast was 8.2%. Moreover, the revenue forecast figure for the first time since the collapse of Lehman could be negative. If the end of December, the forecast for 2015 was talking about an increase of 2.8%, it is now expected to decline by 0.3%. We are already seeing two days correction from historic highs, and, quite possibly, this index does not stop — the immediate goal may be a mark in 2090.

Commodities

Please note: the spread between Brent and WTI has widened to more than the annual maximum of $ 10.78 USD / bbl. Given that the price cartel tied to Brent, it seems, the first strategic objective in the «oil war» for market share achieved. In fact, this is the ideal situation for OPEC when its profits are rising, and quotes the US WTI remain in place. This indicates that offshore sector does not get their support, and blizhnevostoyanye oil producers have slowed down their losses. Which may mean developing trend at the moment? That the demand for Brent can continue to grow, and that for her report reached record highs commercial stocks in the US does not matter. But the falling number of working rigs will only please, and it can push assets in the long-awaited area of ​​$ 65.00. / Bbl.

Foreign exchange market

The ruble has received good support from oil prices and even tried to break through a strong barrier at 60.00, touching 59.55 mark. In addition, quite a dramatic speech of the Russian Investigative Committee Alexander Bastrykin, in which he called for the restriction of currency speculation in order to avoid the devaluation of the ruble could also play a role in the strengthening of the Russian currency. However, the subsequent further reduction in energy demand caused by the strengthening of the US dollar, led USD / RUB to return to the area of ​​61.00. Moreover, in the US session crude oil continued to fall, which may cause the ruble to open bids weaker than at the close. However, given the impending publication of the report on the number of drilling rigs operating in the US from Baker Hughes, you can expect a quick recovery in demand for Brent, which in turn may lead to new attempts to break through 60.00 rubles.

If you noticed, the world currency market was an important event — the belief in the dollar’s dominance shaken. «Soft» Janet Yellen reduced the number of believers in the summer hike, and now investors are actively reflect on the question «Where, if not in the dollar?». Yes, yesterday’s report on inflation slightly reduced the number of inquirers, but first a weak report from the United States will return the issue on the agenda. Under such conditions, the first to react British pound, but it is worth noting that EUR / USD has a good potential recovery, at least in the short term, and the euro this several reasons:

1. The situation with Greece came to the relative stability and to withdraw from the euro zone is no longer the question.

2. The last performance of Mario Draghi confirmed that he is waiting for «green shoots» in the near future, as the measures to stimulate the economy is about to bear fruit. Thus, a new round of easing yet not wait, and the old have all been included in the price.

3. Oversold euro has long been a concern, and the number of short futures positions according to CFTC gradually begins to decline: 186 thousand. Against 195 thousand. A week earlier.

4. Postponement of Fed rate hike will lead to the closure of the long positions in the US dollar.

Thus, in the short term it makes sense to consider the positions from the current lows with the immediate goal at around 1.13 and then at 1.1430.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from February 26, 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners