Review of the world’s major financial markets from February 25, 2015

In the morning came pretty interesting story — the index of business activity in the industrial sector in China for the first time since November 2014 returned more than 50-item mark, which shows the growth in the sector. This gave hope that the cooling of the Chinese economy is already in the final phase and provoked a rise AUD / USD immediately by 80 points up to the maximum of 0.7901 in February.

Meanwhile, demand for the US dollar fell gradually, continuing to respond to the comments soft Janet Yellen. Energy markets and metals were able to demonstrate that some recovery. Brent even practical ignored another exceeding forecasts for the growth of commercial oil reserves in the US, reaching 61.71 on day low of $ 58.40. / Bbl. USD / RUB, meanwhile, remained under pressure due to the peak of tax payments in Russia who supported the demand for the ruble and sent him to the area of ​​62.00 at the close.

There were interesting news from the US stock market: Hewlett-Packard Company reported weaker sales than expected 26.8 billion dollars against 27.2 billion dollars. This has led to a drop in shares at the opening of more than 8%. Apple Inc was fined 532.9 million for infringement of three patents, software iTunes. And JPMorgan Chase announced plans to close 300 offices (5% of the total) in the next two years.

Economic data:

  • China in February, industrial PMI 50,1 vs. 49.5
  • US commercial oil reserves in the US for the week of February 20, 8.4 million barrels, compared to 4 million barrels

Forecast for Thursday, February 26

Stock market

After Yellen made it clear that it is economic reports will influence the timing of the transition to higher rates, with particular zeal players will track data from the labor market, rates of inflation and consumer demand. In this regard, all reports published today can attract investors: falling CPI, weak orders for durable goods, as well as the increase in the number of applications for unemployment benefits can only ensure that the tightening of the year the Fed will not. And, it means that the US stock market may have another reason for growth: NASDAQ-100 and Dow Jones (YM) may target the 4500 and 18200, respectively, and yesterday’s impressive correction caused by the collapse of stock Apple (AAPL) has provided an excellent opportunity for entry long positions.

Commodities

Oil continues to behave in the framework of the established and already several times described scenario. After the release of the report on commercial energy reserves asset entered into the second phase of the weekly cycle — he resumed growth. Now there is every reason to expect a strengthening of the asset until the release of data on the number of drilling rigs operating in the US. Baker Hughes will publish a report late on Friday, so Brent good growth potential, at least to the level of $ 63.00 / barrel, after the breakdown of which will open the way to 65.00. Nevertheless, it is worth remembering that the last time the market was disappointed slow the pace of reduction of existing facilities, and another such disappointment can greatly lick position Brent. Thus, the closer to Friday recommend to take profits and «sit on the fence» this release.

Foreign exchange market

Ruble could strengthen yesterday, but unfortunately, yesterday was the peak of the February tax payments. Now the final payment of this tax period will be marked on March 2, so that short-term currency support for now exhausted, and the pair USD / RUB can again resume growth. The immediate goal will mark 64,00 and terminate it on the way up can only positive dynamics in the energy markets: Brent should consolidate above $ 60. / Bbl., To return the support of the Russian currency. Occurred a growth spurt in oil prices during yesterday’s US session can help the ruble to keep afloat at the opening on Thursday.

GBP / USD embarked on the path of correction: January 19, after the 1.5-year low at 1.4951, the pair climbs steadily, and it is to have a very serious reason. Firstly, the political problems of the eurozone, davivshie on the British pound because of the close economic ties, like put on the backburner. Second, economic reports are gradually beginning to talk about stabilizing the situation, and the rate of inflation on the salary level is projected to show growth this year for the first time since 2007. Third, the Bank of England in his recent speech hinted that the next step in the framework of monetary policy is likely still will be a rate increase. At a time when the market begins to doubt the aggressiveness of the Fed, such words from a representative of the Bank of England mean a lot. The immediate goal at the moment can be a mark of 1.56.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from February 25, 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners