Review of the world’s major financial markets from February 23, 2015

Monday was quite volatile, partly markets adjusted their positions, ready for action, Janet Yellen, partly corrected after the initial reaction to Friday’s agreement Greece and the Eurogroup. As a result, EUR / USD once again came under pressure, closed in the area of ​​1.1340. Germany’s DAX continued to remain neutral, slightly corrected after Friday’s jump.

In addition, you may notice a sharp increase in GBP / USD — couple torrgi completed in the area of ​​1.5460, recovering from the daily low 1.5331. The fact that the market will be the talk of the fact that the labor market will soon begin rising inflation on the salary level. This was reported by the company Ernst & Young, has predicted an increase in real incomes for the first time since 2007 by 1.8%, and this process will grow into a lasting trend. This same story and pressed on the British index FTSE.

However, the most impressive yesterday was the behavior of oil. Brent oil continued a sharp decline, reaching a minimum of 58.37. Then quotes are trying to recover under the influence of rumors about an emergency meeting of OPEC. However, when rumors were officially denied, oil again began to fall, closed in the area of ​​$ 58.80. / Bbl. USD / RUB went to the increase of the opening and in connection with the downgrade Russian agency Moody’s, and due to the negative dynamics of «black gold», and in connection with the threat of another escalation of the conflict in the Donbas, reaching 64.26, but returned to Area 63.00 at the close. Meanwhile, gold and silver continued to incur losses amid growing interest in the US dollar.

Economic data:

  • Germany in February, the index of economic expectations IFO 102,5 vs. 103.0
  • Nigeria’s oil minister in an interview with Financial Times made an allusion to the likelihood of an emergency OPEC meeting in the case of «further drop in oil prices»
  • OPEC representatives have denied talk of an emergency meeting.

Forecast for Tuesday, February 24

Stock market

If last week all investors’ attention was drawn to the situation in Greece and the results of its negotiations with the Eurogroup, now the US market again will draw interest to him. A recent FOMC meeting minutes has sown doubts among traders about the fact that the first Fed rate hike will occur in June. The current week will shed some more light on the period of transition in tightening mode — Janet Yellen will speak on the economy and monetary policy. If she again says that we should be «patient», waiting to raise rates will start to weaken. To do this, Janet there are many reasons: inflation since its last performance at the Fed meeting in December continued to fall, geopolitical problems grow, and economic reports (except for the labor market) have changed for the worse. Such an outcome is only for the benefit of the American NASDAQ-100 (NQ) and Dow Jones (YM). The immediate goal for the indexes can become a mark 4490 and 18150.

Commodities

Oil acts on the already traditional plan: after a report Baker Hughes disappointed more restrained pace of reduction of working rigs, attention shifted to the data on commercial oil stocks in the United States (usually located on Wednesdays). In addition, a contribution made, and calls for an emergency meeting of OPEC. Despite the fact that nothing has been confirmed, the volatility of the asset it has added and once again reminded that the majority of the cartel still not very pleased with the current state of affairs. This may be another factor in support of the current strength of the lower limit. We still believe that an asset may be traded within the former range of 57.80 — 62.50 and only a break through one of the boundaries will be able to confirm a clear medium-term trend for Brent.

Foreign exchange market

The ruble is again under pressure, not surprising under the action of several unfavorable factors, starting with a downgrade of Russian agency Moody’s, and ending with the negative dynamics of oil, and the threat of another escalation of the conflict in the Donbas. It is likely that in the coming days fall in the energy market may put pressure on the Russian currency. In addition, you should pay attention to the dynamics of the US dollar. Today’s speech by Janet Yellen may be the key in this regard, as the softer comments than expected, may undermine the position of the US currency and provide the basis for a recovery in demand for the ruble. And another important point: the tax period in full swing, and given the shortened week, you can expect a burst of activity exporters on Tuesday. All this does not exclude the possibility of reducing the USD / RUB to the area of ​​61.00.

Today, the market’s attention can again draw dynamics EUR / USD, and for two reasons. Firstly, the history of Greece is not finished yet: it requested the extension of 6 months, she was given 4, and provided that the list of reforms on Monday. Monday passed, but the official list we have not seen. According to unconfirmed reports, it will happen today, but if it is marked by another delay, this may put pressure on the euro. If the list we will see, it is up to the «troika», which will have to decide whether there is enough of the proposed reforms to continue the program of salvation. If yes — the agreement will be approved — if not to sell the euro, at least in short term — the breakdown of 1.1280 support is real.

Second, the performance of Janet Yellen will shed light on the future situation with the terms of the rate increase. Yesterday the Fed Williams said he did not rule out the possibility of tightening in June. Let’s see what the head of the Federal Reserve. Most likely, it will try to translate all in neutral tones, and even this will be enough to disappoint investors. And here is where the couple can adjust up, although if on Greece uncertainty will persist, it is unlikely to occur above 1.1460.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from February 23, 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners