Review of the world’s major financial markets from February 2, 2015

Stock markets showed a mixed trend on excess catalysts. As a result, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) at the end of trading day rooted 0.54%. Meanwhile, Britain’s FTSE lost 0.4%, while Germany’s DAX gained nearly 0.7%. US stock indices showed good growth to the end of trading day.

Beginning of the week was marked by fairly active trading on the currency market. Firstly, the economic calendar promoted increased volatility: Evidence from the business activity of interested investors. In addition, there is talk about the attempts of the Swiss National Bank to establish a new informal peg the franc to the euro, triggering demand for the single currency in the first half of the day. As a result, EUR / USD opened trading at 1.1310, 1.1354 grown to maximum, but the weak PMI data from Germany to limit further movement. GBP / USD grew sharply to around 1.5088 at the output of the stronger than expected levels of business activity (53.0 vs. 52.6). However, the component of the index confirmed the absence of inflationary pressures in the economy, which, coupled with the dynamics of EUR / GBP push down on the couple and send it to the level of 1.5030, near which the couple and closed trades. USD / JPY from the opening level of 117.05 grew to around 117.87, but with the release of weak data from the US (and consumer spending, and the ISM index fell short of forecasts) was able to return to the area of ​​117.20 at the close. USD / RUB was a good incentive to move down in the form of sharply increased demand in the energy market. This helped the pair noted at least 67.71 and closed in the area of ​​67.90.

Crude oil futures yesterday showed a sharp jump up on rumors that part of the market begin to close short positions on the asset. The strike oil refineries US also contributed to the dynamics of «black gold». As a result, Brent opened trading at $ 51.59 a barrel, has grown to $ 55.48 monthly high, but adjust to the close of trading at around $ 54.40 per barrel.

Precious metals continued to show correction from recent highs. So, XAU / USD from the opening level of $ 1280.46 reached the minimum of $ 1266.34, closed at $ 10 above and silver traded near 17.20 at the close.

Forecast for Tuesday, February 3rd

Stock market

Current Week promises to be interesting for the stock markets as investors are already beginning preparations for the publication of a report on levels of employment payrolls US (NFP). And the main question — whether the data to convince traders consistently aggressive stance the Fed even against the background of general easing of monetary policy key central banks around the world. The first reports on consumer spending and of manufacturing industry raise questions. ISM index was the lowest since January last year, the employment component fell seriously (54.1 vs. 56.0 previously). From NFP expected performance in the area of ​​230-250 thousand, and it is unlikely we will see a further fall in unemployment after so many sharp decrease it in recent months (6.1% in September from 5.6 in December). Does this cause the Fed to refrain from raising rates in the coming quarters? Possible, and that this opportunity will expect US stock indexes. The more weakness in the reports from the US, the more likely to see growth NASDAQ-100 (NQ) and Dow Jones (YM) in the coming days.

Commodities

It seems that the price of oil reached a new phase of its «crisis of life.» Activity in the US oil and gas sector begins to fall. According to the third-largest oil and gas service company in the world, Baker Hughes, an indicator of operating wells began to decline sharply from October 10 last year after reaching a peak 1609. To date, the total number of active drilling rigs in the US is 1223, ie 31.6% below peak levels. In 2008, the figure fell by almost 60% from peak levels, so we still have a way to go. Now comes the moment of «groping bottom» and perhaps, Brent expand the range of fluctuations of up to $ 47,00- $ 56.00. On a clear reversal of the downward trend is even without the intervention of OPEC, we can say, as soon as the number of active drilling rigs will fall by 50% from the highs — ie to about 800. If we consider the dynamics of the previous years, it can leave on for 1-2 months.

Foreign exchange market

USD / RUB was a reason for the fall, and a very serious reason in the form of rising oil prices. The fact that Brent quotes made several attempts to take the $ 55 barrier. / Bbl. and still they do not leave, said the likelihood of fracture downward trend that we’ve seen since last summer. Started closing short positions in excess of assets can trigger a wave of profit-taking and the return of «black gold» to higher levels. For the ruble is in the current environment looks almost the only salvation, especially in light of the reorientation of the Bank of Russia to fight inflation at stimulating economic growth. With a further decrease in the rate of the pressure regulator for the Russian currency may increase, and in such conditions the probability of return to the December highs too high. Thus, we continue to monitor the dynamics of the energy market: the return of the quotes in the area of ​​$ 60. / Bbl. ruble may attempt to return to the level of 62.00.

Many drew attention to the altered behavior of USD / JPY. After reaching peak levels at the beginning of December 2014 the pair gradually wind down, showing lower highs and moving towards the key support 116.00. Part of the reason for it was the falling yields on US «Treasuries» (from 2.12% at the beginning of January to 1.68% at its end). The interest rate on ten-year bonds fell to the lowest since May 2013 mark on the background is rather weak data on US GDP in the 4th quarter, published last Friday. The pace of US economic growth — hope all over the world — fell to 2.6% from 5%. New doubts have caused and published on Monday data on consumer spending, and report the ISM manufacturing industry. If it goes on, the couple all the chances to break through 116.40 and 116.00 to aim for a breakthrough.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from February 2, 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners