Review of the world’s major financial markets from February 19, 2015

Resistor with Greece is gaining momentum, as the climax is near. The fact that both sides of the resist and do not want to come to a consensus, although the time to solve the problem is running out, put pressure on EUR / USD and yet retains the DAX from further growth. The euro closed trading at around 1.1360, and the German index near 10,990.

In addition, attention is drawn to the emotional and behavior of oil. Brent oil yesterday very actively preparing for the release of data on commercial stocks, and when they came out (even exceeding forecasts) triggered the principle of «sell the fact». As a result, by week low of $ 57.79 asset reached the mark of $ 60.30. / Bbl., Where he closed the trading day. USD / RUB, of course, responded to the initial growth of 62.34 and then a similar fall to 61.65 at the close. Meanwhile, gold and silver have been attempting to recover, but at the end of the day closed in the red at the general strengthening of the US dollar.

Economic data:

  • Japan exports rose in January to 17.0% vs. 11.9%, due to a weak national currency
  • First published report of the last meeting of the ECB
  • USA: change of commercial oil reserves for the week of February 13 against 7.716 million barrels. Forecast 3,233,000 barrels.

Forecast for Friday, 20 February

Stock market

So, Greece has requested the extension of the loan for 6 months in order to have more time on the working of long-term project financing, as already February 28 current agreement expires. And, it seems, Germany said «no.» At the moment, comes a lot of disparate information, but what we do know is the final deadline for reflection, which put the head of the Eurogroup Deyselblum — this Friday. According to him, if Greece does not agree today, the more it will not talk to anybody. One gets the impression that Athens still make concessions, and it is likely that it will happen today. If so, the German index DAX, finally got the opportunity to continue to grow and break above 11000 again with the immediate goal at around 11,090.

In addition, I would like to say a few words about the Nikkei. In the weekly review, we were told that the index is a very important point — the third time he came to around 18,000 and is trying to punch above. A combination of factors this week, coupled with positive economic data and power flow from the safe of the yen in riskier assets helped the stock market benchmark penetrate said barrier and reach the mark already 18400. It is likely that the growth potential is not exhausted, especially considering the impressive growth in exports caused by the devaluation of the national currency. Recall that about 40% of the components Nikkei up just tech stocks, export-oriented, so further depreciation of the yen will stimulate the growth of the index. The next target may be a mark 18490, but given a few days an impressive growth of the index, it makes sense to wait for the correction, and only then open a position to buy.

Commodities

Oil recently impressive dynamics, however, that the main thing — it becomes predictable. In fact, it turns out that the quotes are now living under the influence of two economic reports (apart from geopolitical risks): data on commercial oil stocks in the United States (usually located on Wednesdays) and report Baker Hughes (out Friday night). It turns out the first half of the week oil waits for data to increase the amount of energy storage in the US and this fall, and then the second half is growing in anticipation of new news on the reduction of working wells in the United States. Thus, the sharp correction in Brent from a minimum of $ 57.79. / Bbl. the mark of 60.00 was quite predictable, and if also today published data from Baker Hughes will show the drop in the number of oil rigs below 1,000th mark, the asset could be back in the area of ​​$ 62.40. / bbl.

Foreign exchange market

The ruble has its foundation for growth, which consist of a set of the same factors. Firstly, it is geopolitics. Stabilization of the situation in the area Debaltseve and subsequent telephone conversations in the «Norman format» say that the last obstacles to the implementation of the «Minsk agreements» are eliminated. When will the official withdrawal of troops, it can help a couple get away below 60.00 against the dollar. However, subject to the further condition — oil prices will not fall.

Brent behavior in the US session gives reason to expect the opening of trading on USD / RUB small «gap» down. If oil prices continue to rise on expectations of statistics from Baker Hughes, it can only accelerate the process of strengthening of the ruble.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from February 19, 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners