Review of the world’s major financial markets from February 18, 2015

The star of the day was a pair GBP / USD, which grew sharply to 1.5-month high of 1.5479 on the output of strong data on the UK labor market, and then on the «soft» Minutes FOMC. The index number of the unemployed decreased by 38.6 thousand. Against the expected fall in the 25 th., And the unemployment rate fell to 5.87% from 5.8% forecast. In addition, the most important indicator of the rate of earnings growth was 2.1% vs. 1.7%. All this increases the chances that if the Bank of England and will not be the first, but the second in line to raise rates after the Fed just may be.

By the close of trading the market was a bomb in the form of a very soft protocol FOMC. Representatives of the Committee not only with the negative commended slow wage growth, but noted the likelihood of a threat to the economy posed by the slowing of China, uncertainties with Greece, and geopolitical conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. All this confirmed that the Fed is not ready to move too quickly in tightening mode. As a result, EUR / USD regained most of the losses, USD / JPY plunged below 118.70, as XAU / USD marked a maximum of 1213.51. Meanwhile, the US indices NASDAQ and Dow Jones virtually ignored everything.

Economic data:

  • Minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England
  • UK: December, the average salary bonuses based on 2.1% vs. 1.7%
  • Minutes of the last meeting of the Operations Committee on the Federal Open Market (FOMC)

Forecast for Thursday, February 19

Stock market

The German DAX index still adheres to a neutral position, apparently waiting for the results of negotiations with Greece. Many speakers in favor of the fact that everything will end positively, at least one of the parties, and that will be enough to index continued to grow. Yesterday evening it was announced that the ECB approved the extension of assistance to Greek banks lending program unscheduled two weeks. Amounted to 68.3 billion euros. This is the good news — Greece nobody throws, but clearly given to understand that «you have to go to our terms and conditions, or remain without a livelihood.»

In addition, on Friday appointed a regular meeting to discuss the possibility of extending the current program. Given that already February 24 Athens required to pay 595 million euros on its debt, and then on March 6 has 297 million euros to the IMF and to repay expiring T-bill at 1.2 billion, Greece’s not such a great choice. The next target for the DAX on the way up to the mark 11090.

Commodities

Prices for Brent crude on Tuesday repeated the dynamics up to a point. Usually published on Wednesday a report on US commercial oil stocks because of President’s Day celebration was postponed to Thursday. Recall that the last time index reached a historic high: 417.9 million barrels. If this time we will see a new record, the asset may briefly go down to the area of ​​$ 59.60. / Bbl., But correction can occur very quickly. The fact that the recent news about the reduction of oil production by Iraq (900 th. Barrels per day) and Libya (150 thousand barrels per day) remains a strong support for the demand for «black gold». In addition, the approach and the date of publication of the next report from Baker Hughes on the number of active oil rigs can exert its influence on the quotes Brent. Thus, the current downward correction makes sense to use to enter long positions with the immediate goal at around 62.60 and further target at the level of $ 65.00. / Bbl.

Gold (XAU / USD) has shown an impressive decline over the last month, and for the most part, this was due to expectations of an early tightening by the Fed. Yesterday’s report made it clear that members of FOMC did not hurry to increase rates, and it has become a strong catalyst for the upward movement. Moreover, the asset may continue to grow under the influence of another important factor. The other day, India’s central bank issued a notice about the precious metal, talking about the easing of restrictions on the asset that can be the basis for the growth of demand for the metal in the long run. The immediate goal of gold on the way up could be around $ 1219.80 per ounce.

Foreign exchange market

USD / RUB managed to break the long-suffering support 62.00 on the news emerged that the Armed Forces of Ukraine together with the National Guard under the operation for the planned withdrawal of units Debaltseve. The conflict in this area is considered one of the main obstacles to implementation of the «Minsk arrangements.» That’s why the market has a new reason for the demand for the ruble, in addition to the stabilization of prices of Brent crude oil above $ 60. / Bbl. In addition, towards the end of the week we may see increased activity on the part of exporters in connection with the approaching peak of the tax period. All this gives hope that the mark ,, 60,00 pair if not passed, then, at least, will be tested. Rumors that the Ministry of Finance started to buy rubles can only accelerate the process of achieving the goal.

GBP / USD yesterday was the star of the market, would dramatically improve the output is quite positive data on the UK labor market. Couple updated 1.5-month high 1.5479, although the closure down to the area of ​​1.5450. It is this level at the moment is the main obstacle on the way up: a couple unsuccessfully tried to carry out the sample and 16 February, but was forced to rollback. In the form of strong support serves mark of 1.54. Thus, a particular sample of the range, and provides signals have short in the driving direction. Gradually increasing positive in relation to the British economy and the recent speech of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney, where he made it clear that the next step will be the Central Bank is still raising rates, we tend to breakdown probability level of 1.5450 with a further target at level 1, 5490.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from February 18, 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners