Review of the world’s major financial markets from February 17, 2015

Most of the day started positively — investors began to believe that the Greeks still make concessions and an agreement will be reached. This helped EUR / USD to reach the 1.5-week high of 1.1448, and the DAX — strengthen to 10947. However appeared in the evening scathing remarks from Athens began to put pressure on both asset: euro closed trading near 1.14, and German index — at around 10,920.

The rest of the financial instruments have been suppressed by the dominance of the US dollar, which has already begun preparations for the publication of the protocol of the last meeting of the FOMC. Against this background, USD / JPY rose to the 119.41 high and commodity markets have come under pressure. Brent fell back from the high of $ 62.32. / Bbl. and returned to the area of ​​60.20, but to the very close quickly rolled back above 62.50. It pulled him and the ruble, which initially weakened against the dollar to 63.11, at the end of the trading day back to 62.65. Precious metals came under heavy sell-off on the same topic: Gold closed trading at around $ 1208.40 per ounce, and silver — near 16.50.

Economic data:

  • UK: January CPI -0.9% m / m and 0.3% y / y vs. -0.8% m / m and 0.3% y / y.
  • Germany in February, the index of economic expectations ZEW 53,0 against the forecast of 55.0.

Forecast for Wednesday, February 18

Stock market

The German DAX index is under pressure due to the uncertain outcome of negotiations, «the EU-Greece». Athens his rhetoric is clearly given to understand that they are willing to make concessions, but still want to see at least a «small step forward» by other representatives of the eurozone. Given the words of the Greek Minister of Finance that the «agreement will be reached in the coming days,» we can expect a positive outcome of the negotiations. In any case, the chances that Greece will leave the Eurozone, miserable, and, therefore, the current correction index can be a good entry point for long positions to jerk up on the benchmark results of the meeting.

Despite the fact that the British FTSE has experienced inflation data in the UK, published yesterday, the flow of economic data has not yet been exhausted and it can cause the index to show sharp fluctuations. It should be noted that the data on CPI have not made much of an impression on the market, as their anticipated quarterly inflation report published last week by the Bank of England. However, today the planned release of indicators from the labor market may be much more interesting for investors. The highest value will be the speaker ‘salary inflation «: if the stabilization of employment levels resulted in the same salary increase, it may convince players that cost pressures in the coming months, all things begin to grow. Indirectly, it can increase the chances of a tightening of monetary policy in the current year. In this case, the British FTSE may incur losses and revert back to the 6730 area.

Commodities

Prices for Brent crude to once again failed to consolidate above 62.30 USD. / Bbl. and rushed down, though not for long — as early as Tuesday’s closing asset back above 62.40. We have seen similar behavior last week on the eve of release of data on US commercial oil reserves. Recall that the last time index reached a historic high: 417.9 million barrels. And there is every reason to believe that this time we can see a new record, as US oil storage filled faster than expected market. Furthermore, additional pressure is strengthening its position of the US dollar on expectations the protocol of the last meeting FOMC. Publication may show aggressive mood in the camp of the Federal Reserve and convince the market that a rate hike could take place this summer. In fact, most of these events, investors have already priced in, so if the data from the US will not coincide with expectations, Brent quotes can yank above 62.40 barrier and rush to the area of ​​$ 65. / Bbl.

Foreign exchange market

USD / RUB has once again failed to gain a foothold below 62.00, despite the fact that the fragile truce in the Donbas is still supported, except for the area Debaltseve. In general, the market sentiment is very positive in the light of attempts to resolve the protracted conflict. Nevertheless, we should not ignore another important factor — the price of oil. Despite the fact that Brent continues to hold above $ 60. / Bbl., Continued his progress is clearly difficult. In addition, the market is starting to worry about the impending publication of the weekly US report on commercial oil stocks, which is the last time the asset topple it. It is possible that on Wednesday the ruble may be under pressure due to the negative dynamics of «black gold». It is not excluded return to the area of ​​64.00 for the pair dollar / ruble.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from February 17, 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners