Review of the world’s major financial markets from February 16, 2015

The day started off pretty easy, although we noted a decrease confident USD / RUB to support 62.00, and a minimum of 61.75 was achieved, after which the couple returned to 63.00 under the influence of scattered news of ceasefire violations, as well as oil prices stalled : Brent closed in the area of ​​$ 61.40. / bbl.

In the afternoon the market with bated breath watching the negotiations Eurogroup of finance ministers and Greece. The meeting was held to no avail, since the EU is clearly makes it clear that it is not ready to make concessions, and is the only real plan — one that should simply be extended. Head of the Eurogroup Jeroen Deysselblum said that Athens must decide by Friday — bearing in mind that they will have to agree on the same terms. All this put pressure on the EUR / USD and sent to 1.1318 from the opening level of 1.1396. Precious metals were able to this news a little added: Gold closed trading at around $ 1230 per ounce, while silver — near 17.25.

Economic data:

  • Japan: December, industrial output 1.0% y / y and 0.8% m / m.
  • Libya cuts oil production up to 200 thousand. Barrels per day.
  • Eurogroup finance ministers meeting on Greece.

Forecast for Tuesday, February 17

Stock market

Last week was hard for the US dollar, however, proved to be very positive for the dynamics of US stock indices. The fact that the weaker-than-expected US economic data reassured investors that the Fed had no reason to hurry with the tightening of monetary policy and, therefore, ultrasoft, favorable conditions for the corporate sector will last longer than expected. However, the current week can change everything, as the environment is planned publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the FOMC. Last week we saw several interventions by the Fed, and each of them gave a hint that the first rate hike «is not far off.» Given the attitude of officials, chances are high to see the switch to tighten this summer, if the next protocol confident in this market, we can see the sale to NASDAQ-100 (NQ) and Dow Jones (YM). In the current environment, it makes sense to try a short-term strategy, «hunting correction» with the opening of short positions at current high levels, and it closed after the publication of the protocol. The immediate objectives of the indices can be levels of 4285 and 17773, respectively.

Commodities

Besides the already traditional support, which is produced at the beginning of the week oil prices from the data Baker Huges, Monday brought another interesting news: State Oil Company of Libya warned that it will stop production at all fields, if the government can not solve the problem of frequent attacks on oil installations . They have already led to a reduction in output to its lowest level in a year. National Oil Corporation claims that its protection is not enough to provide the necessary security to employees.

Recall that the production has already been reduced by 180 thousand. Barrels per day after the fire on the pipeline, which leads to the port of Hariga. Libya has the largest oil fields in Africa and supplied about 350 thousand. Barrels per day in January of this year. After the recent fires had been reduced to 200 thousand. Barrels per day, well below the 900 thousand. In November last year. If we continue to observe the escalation of the conflict, it can stimulate increased interest in Brent with a probability of breakdown 63.20 USD. / Bbl. and the further aim at around 67.40.

Foreign exchange market

Yesterday the Russian market started the tax period, which may be one of the main factors for the support of the Russian ruble. However, this week we do not expect a significant effect on the activity of exporters, as the bulk of the payments will be in the next five days working. Most likely, USD / RUB, will still depend strongly on the degree of geopolitical tension. Minsk talks were held, but made arrangements still have to perform, and while the world remains too fragile. From time to time there are rumors about it alerted paratroopers, the violations of the truce will put pressure on the ruble and limit its growth potential. Level 62.00 looks strong support, and while the pair failed to break it. If it would still be able to splash positive, the couple can quickly rush to the level of 60.00.

Now for the euro. The talks in Brussels was delayed and has not yet produced any results, so we can consider several strategies to trade at this event. There are two obvious options outcome of this event:

1. The negotiations failed, and Greece break relations with the euro, on the chance that not so much. However, if you do it on a bet, and it’s really going to happen, profitability will be very good, since the output of Athens may cause the expectation that more countries could leave the eurozone. In such a case, the mark of 1.10 for EUR / USD will look quite real.

2. Negotiations still give some results, even if not immediately, and the chances of it quite a lot. In this situation, it makes sense to choose EUR / USD for each drop caused by panic moods. For example, current levels could not be more attractive, especially if by Friday Athens will make concessions. The purpose of the upward movement, given the single currency oversold confirming data from futures positions CFTC, may be the level of 1.1630.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from February 16, 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners