Review of the world’s major financial markets from February 12, 2015

If in the morning the attention of financial markets has focused on the results of the «Minsk talks» that pushed the pair USD / RUB 63.92 to a minimum, and the DAX to 10964, the day Britain dragged to his interest. Published by the Bank of England inflation report caused a storm of emotions, and later Mark Carney had to extinguish their aggressive statements. As a result, GBP / USD reached 1.5414 from the opening level of 1.5229.

In the evening, took the baton to the United States by publishing unexpectedly weak performance of retail sales, even though such low gasoline prices, to stimulate consumption. In response to this, USD / JPY slipped to a minimum 118.50, closed in the area of ​​119.00. In addition, the weakening of the dollar supported and interest in oil: Brent returned to the area of ​​$ 59.90. / Bbl. to closing. Precious metals behaved with restraint completing trades almost neutral.

Economic data:

  • British inflation report. CPI forecast for 2015 revised to decrease to 0.5% from 1.4%, and in the text there is a possibility to reduce rates.
  • Speech by Mark Carney. Bank of England confirmed that the next step of the Central Bank is likely still will be exactly the rate increase.
  • USA: January, retail sales -0.8% vs. -0.5% m / m.

Forecast for Friday, February 13,

Stock market

Japanese index Nikkei (NKD) approached the strong resistance level of 18,000, and while unsuccessfully trying to break it. Note that this is the third attempt in the last two months, and this time it is hoped that a breakthrough will still take place and accelerate the movement of the benchmark in the area of ​​an 8-year high of 18300. In favor of such an outcome says several factors.

Firstly, the yen continues to incur losses, despite yesterday’s jump to 118.50 on weak US data — it still held near record lows. This depreciation of the national currency has a positive impact on the export activity and profits of the corporate sector of the country. About 40% of the components Nikkei up just tech stocks, export-oriented, so further depreciation of the yen will stimulate the growth of the index.

Secondly, the current downtrend of oil into the hands of the purchasing countries energy source. Japan ranks 3rd among the largest importers and buys about 4.559 million barrels per day. Thus, cheap oil gives the economy as an opportunity to build up its strategic reserves and curb inflation, allowing you to continue to stimulate the economy through ultrasoft monetary policy. We believe that the Nikkei under the influence of these factors will continue to show growth, but given the volatile nature of the index, we suggest to wait for confirmation of the breakdown level of 18,000 and only then open a position to buy.

Commodities

Oil prices resumed their attempts to grow again after a short period of decline. In favor of such behavior «black gold» act and the weakening of the US dollar, and industry news. Yesterday it was reported that the fourth largest oil company in Canada Cenovus Energy Inc. decided to reduce the number of employees by 15%, freeze wages for the year, as well as reduce the cost of travel, conference and information technology. In addition, Nigeria celebrated the process of combining small oil companies into larger ones to survive the current downturn in the energy market. Most of these companies carry out planning on the basis of the price of $ 70 USD. / Bbl. On the background to observe the process of folding of investment projects, costs and closing unprofitable wells quotes Brent hardly continue to fall. The immediate goal on the way up again can be a mark of $ 63.20. / Bbl.

Foreign exchange market

USD / RUB, finally went down to around 63.92, after confirmed the information about the signing of a peace agreement in Minsk. Vladimir Putin announced the ceasefire from midnight on February 15. In addition, after the meeting the contact group signed a «package of measures to implement the Minsk Agreement», despite initial rumors that members of the DNI and LC refused to sign the document. As a result, the market is more optimistic, and already there are conversations on the subject of the legality of sanctions against Russia — there is a need to maintain the restrictive measures against the Russian economy, if the peace process is already running? Apparently, these expectations may serve as the main impetus for growth in demand for the ruble. However, in the next few days, the market will closely monitor the implementation of the points of agreement, so it is possible that the pair USD / RUB will show sharp fluctuations for some time. Short-term goal on the way down now to be a mark of 60.00, and a sharp strengthening of oil prices create conditions for the rapid achievement of this goal.

Твой выбор

Search

The best broker

Link to Us



Review of the world's major financial markets from February 12, 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners