Review of the world’s major financial markets from February 11, 2015

The whole day spent in the financial markets expectations, and in the absence of economic reports all investors’ attention was directed at political events. But here, we have not received any catalysts until the onset of the US session, as in Ukraine and the meeting and the meeting of the Eurogroup on Greece were scheduled for Wednesday evening.

USD / RUB virtually ignored the oil continues to weaken, hoping that the Minsk talks will give positive results. Meanwhile, the price of Brent went down to 55.15 dollars. / Bbl. in response to data that confirmed a sharp increase in US oil inventories before the next record. But by the close of the trading day the asset back to the area of ​​56.00, and USD / RUB finished trading at around 65.48.

Meanwhile, USD / JPY broke through the 120.00 mark and reached a maximum 120.42. A series of aggressive statements by the representatives of the Federal Reserve only emphasizes the difference between rates of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan and the increasing demand for the American currency. Naturally, for precious metals is a serious factor of pressure: Gold (XAU / USD) and Silver (XAG / USD) lost more than 1.0%.

Economic data:

  • US: increase in reserves of oil and oil products from the EIA was 4.868 million vs. 3.733 million barrels, bringing the rate to a record high;
  • Eurogroup finance ministers’ meeting on the extension of the program to save Greece;
  • meeting of the heads of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France in Minsk on the settlement of the war.

Forecast for Thursday, February 12

Stock market

Apple Inc. (AAPL) recently became the first American company whose market capitalization exceeded $ 700 billion (currently $ 710.7 billion). Now the company’s value is more than twice the size of its rival Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) — the second largest US companies with a capitalization of $ 347.5 billion. Since its IPO in 1980 the company’s value increased by 50.6%, and the latest data on sales in China talking about a figure of $ 38 billion. — Five years ago, it was just one billion. Net profit for the last quarter rose 38% from the same period a year earlier. In addition, recently learned about a new project by Apple in partnership with First Solar: American giant plans to spend about $ 1 billion., To become the owner of the new solar power plant, construction of which started in mid-2015, and the Project Output is expected to the turn of the 2016-2017 biennium. This will be the most powerful power in the world, and can serve as a new impetus for growth stocks.

In addition, you should pay attention to another interesting fact. Apple plans to release their bonds in Swiss francs. Recall that in January, the Swiss franc strengthened rapidly in response to the decision of the Central Bank of the country unbind the euro. In consequence of this deposit rates have decreased, allowing Apple to rely on less costly service loans. Thus, if the company uses the proceeds to repurchase its own shares, in order not to pay dividends, dividend costs are significantly reduced. For example, if you buy back 8,000,000 shares, you can save $ 15 million. On payments. Such a policy of only further assures investors of good prospects for further growth stocks. Current levels are high enough to buy, so please enter the market long positions in the correction of the asset down.

Commodities

Prices for precious metals exhibit moderate growth, adjusting after the impact, resulting from strong US data. Strong report on the labor market has increased the chances of the Fed rate hike in the coming months, which is not good for assets such as gold and silver, which have not paid any dividends or interest. Thus, if the Central Bank still will go to the regime of tightening, precious metals have no chance. The only condition under which these safe-haven assets will be needed — period ultrasoft policy and fears of weak global growth, combined with geopolitical tensions. At the moment, almost all the conditions are met, if not for a sustainable recovery in the United States and the likelihood of Fed rate hike. Thus, this week, investors can draw data on US retail sales. If the report confirms the strength of consumer demand and a good potential for further economic recovery, it can cause large-scale sell-off of gold (XAU / USD) and Silver (XAG / USD) to the immediate goals of $ 1213 and $ 16.20, respectively.

Foreign exchange market

USD / RUB could get an excellent opportunity for growth in the form of sharply falling oil prices. Yesterday’s data of record energy reserves in the United States have seriously undermined the position of «black gold». However, the ruble was eating one main hope — peace agreement in Minsk yet to be signed. Especially because all indirect factors were talking about the same: and leaked information about a document, and the words Poroshenko about «unconditional» ceasefire, and the fact of the departure of Heads of State at the venue. Lengthy negotiations have not yet terminated, but there are chances that some agreements will be reached, which may contribute to a spike in demand for the ruble already at the opening of trading on Thursday. Foreign Minister Lavrov that everything is «better than super», but that the negotiation process is rather difficult to only support markets in hopes. The couple this morning have all chances to open the «gap» down on the positive expectations of the world — the immediate goal may be a mark of 60.00.

«Greek drama» continues, and in such circumstances foolish to expect recovery of EUR / USD. Yesterday we watched the meeting of finance ministers of the Eurogroup, as a result of which it became known that Greece has insisted on a deal that would be based on financial stability, financial stability, debt restructuring and addressing the humanitarian crisis of the country. This helped the pair to show a sharp jump to around 1.1340, but the final decision is still pending.

Today will be the turn of Heads of State. During this time we have received a lot of emotional statements: German Finance Minister Schaeuble said that the discussion of a new agreement or an extension of time for Greece is not on the plan, Greece’s finance minister accused him of failing to negotiate. We still remain optimistic, hoping that an agreement will be reached, but if it does not, the euro could quickly break through 1.12 and 1.11 to target. In such circumstances, it makes sense to place an order for sale near 1.1180, as if the sales will begin, then they will be wearing a large scale. In conclusion, a brief about the stages that have to go through Greece:

  • Thursday the 12th of February all EU heads of state will meet to discuss the possibility of saving the country, and on Monday, Merkel said that the terms of the plan, which will provide Greece will be the basis for negotiations. Most likely, the first comments on the results appear only in the evening.
  • On Monday, February 16, a regular meeting of eurozone finance ministers. Last week Disselblum hinted that by the time Greece must make a request for an extension of the program as well as the current recovery program ends February 28th.
  • On Saturday, February 28, expires current aid programs, but it is not does not mean that this day would come the collapse of the financial system in Greece. Are likely to be implemented versions of technical extension programs, or other options that can help you avoid leaving the euro zone.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from February 11, 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners