Review of the world’s major financial markets from February 10, 2015

On Tuesday, the market was digesting all of the same themes of «Greek disobedience» and «Chinese slowdown.» However, everything else added another and a new wave of sales of oil. All these events are only supported demand for the US dollar, which has managed to strengthen against most counterparts.

EUR / USD is still broke through the support of 1.13, as negotiations with Greece yet do not give great results. The situation is heating up, and rumors that the country only a few weeks before its coffers empty, so that if the ECB fails in the financing, the financial collapse will begin much earlier than anticipated markets. All this is partly weighed on the German DAX, which still managed to recover that appears in the media plan to resolve the situation, which is likely to be proposed today Eurogroup.

Against the background of a strengthening dollar and growing uncertainty in Europe, oil prices fall again resumed. The catalyst was the report of the International Energy Agency, which confirmed the likelihood of a prolonged period of low energy prices. This led to Brent around 57.18, and also supported the growth of USD / RUB to the area of ​​65.77 at the close.

Meanwhile, USD / JPY has broken through the resistance of 118.70 and 119.30 on fixed above the aggressive rhetoric from the Fed. Esther George yesterday noted that a small tightening of monetary policy at the beginning of the process of economic recovery may reduce certain risks. This gave a hint that the Fed is still considering a rate hike in June. Naturally, precious metals such story was not to the liking of gold (XAU / USD) and Silver (XAG / USD) lost 0.5%.

China’s CPI up 0.3% m / m and 0.8% y / y vs. 0.4% m / m and 1.0% y / y. This has increased fears of a further slowdown in growth in the second largest economy in the world.
UK: December, industrial production -0.2% m / m and 0.5% y / y vs. 0.1% m / m and 0.7% y / y. The decline may be due to falling energy prices.
Forecast for Wednesday, February 11

Stock market

Today we will see a meeting of the Eurogroup on Greece, where the new government will present a plan to solve their problems. Key issues will include the following points:

bridge financing for the next two quarters until action is taken wider agreement;
70% of the current structural reform program will be carried out;
debt relief, possibly in the form of debt swaps on which Varufakis already said;
measures to mitigate the social crisis in Greece and much more.
Most of the proposals seem quite logical. After a frightening speech Tsipras implementation even 70% of reforms already looks good concession, however, is not yet known how European government ready for such proposals. Germany has already given a hint that it is not going to change course. If the incoming comments today confirm unavailability of the Eurogroup to make concessions, it can again put pressure on the DAX, which yesterday was able to gain a foothold in a little hopes on the likelihood of the agreement. The immediate goal on the way down is a mark 10490.

In addition to the euro zone today is worth paying attention to the dynamics of the British FTSE, which is already a few weeks can not consolidate above 6800, but it could make on Thursday or Wednesday to prepare for the results of the quarterly inflation report, the Bank of England. Given the mood of MPC, as well as the recent decision of even the most aggressive representatives of the Committee to refuse to vote for a rate increase, we can expect the revision of forecasts for inflation and growth in the fall. If this happens, it finally became convinced markets that within the next six months by the Bank of England no radical steps to tighten should not wait, and, therefore, support the UK stock market is provided. Next goal after the break can be a mark 6800 6880, unprecedented since September last year.

Commodities

Yesterday, the International Energy Agency said that the US will remain the biggest catalyst for the growth of oil until 2020, even after the recent collapse of prices in the energy market has led to the closure of 30% of the oil rigs in the country. Also, in the medium-term forecast for the oil market, it was noted that the quotes of «black gold» is now stabilized well below the highs of the previous three years. All this caused a surge of sales Brent, and returned to the level of an asset of $ 57.00. / Bbl. Nevertheless, further downward movement is limited even against a strengthening US dollar. In the current environment, the market is clearly not sure whether to lower oil prices lower in the moment when the oil producers actively scaling back their investment projects, reduce costs and exit unprofitable towers. Many market participants are maturing sense of reversal of the downtrend, so perhaps, at this moment we should refrain from short positions on the asset.

Foreign exchange market

USD / RUB was able to grow up a bit at the end of Tuesday fell slightly under the influence of oil prices. However, in the evening appeared on the market rumors that Moscow was ready to sign an agreement with Ukraine. Sources Bloomberg say about a document that Russia will sign on the results of today’s meeting in the «Norman format» in Minsk. Until confirmation has been received, but such rumors can support the demand for the ruble at the opening of trading on Tuesday. In addition, throughout the day the market will eagerly to catch any comments on the subject of the outcome of negotiations, so that the high volatility of the pair is provided. In the case of frustration, the couple can demonstrate brief foray into the area of ​​68.40, but we believe that after a while, there may come a correction, as investors are not too strongly believe that Russian-Ukrainian conflict can be resolved overnight.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from February 10, 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners