Review of the world’s major financial markets from December 8, 2014

Stock markets, for the most part, not very positively opened a new trading week, because in the morning they upset the weak performance of China and Japan. China’s export volumes in December amounted to only 4.7% y / y vs. 8.0% forecast. A growth rate of Japan’s GDP for the 3rd quarter decreased by 0.5% instead of the expected 0.1% q / q. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) at the end of the day lost 0.2%. Britain’s FTSE weakened by 1.05%, while the German DAX — by 0.72%. US stock indexes showed a similar weakening.

Despite the fact that during the Asian session the US currency made attempts to continue to grow, the second half of the day was marked by a correction of the dollar down. USD / JPY, updating the maximum of 121.84, rolled into the area at the close of 120.50. EUR / USD touched a 28-month low of 1.2246 under the influence of «soft» comments from ECB’s Nowotny and rather weak data on industrial production in Germany, and then recovered in the area of ​​1.2330. GBP / USD update the annual minimum of 1.5540, but immediately began to roll back, returning to the area of ​​1.5660 at the close. USD / RUB began trading at around 52.95 and slowly moved up under the pressure of weak oil prices, ending trading at 53.76.

A new wave of concerns about reducing the number of long positions in oil futures has caused decline in the value of «black gold«. Prices for some time to feel quite stable, having survived the worst after OPEC summit, but a decrease in demand in the derivatives market gradually continued, provoking a mass exit from the «Long». Yesterday Brent opened trading at $ 68.04, and throughout the day has gone down, reaching more than 5-year low of $ 66.38 at the closing of trading days.

Precious metals showed little timid attempts to grow, taking advantage of the weakness of the US dollar evening. XAU / USD finished trading at around $ 1203.56, and XAG / USD was trading around 16.30 to the end of Monday.

Forecast for Tuesday, December 9

Commodities

Oil prices relive not best times, the pressure on energy have both speculative and fundamental factors. While yesterday’s drop in Brent due to a sharp decline in long positions on the asset, the root cause of steel rather weak data from China and Japan, which confirmed that the major consumers of «black gold» is not yet ready to build momentum. In addition, comments OPEC officials continue to assert that it makes sense to prepare for a sustained period of falling oil prices. It is possible that the weakening of Brent will only accelerate in the coming days with a probability of movement in the area of ​​$ 64 per barrel (at least September 2009). Upon reaching this level can be considered short-term positions on the purchase in a possible corrective pullback.

Stock market

Yesterday’s pessimism about the general slowdown in the global economy may continue today against the background of a relatively empty economic calendar. Disappointing data on the volume of exports from China once again reminded the world that the largest consumer is not yet in shape and can not help any weakening Europe or Asia problematic. Today we will see several reports from Europe, which can also confirm the slowdown in industrial production in the UK and the decline in exports to Germany. If this happens, pessimism will only intensify and will put pressure on the European (DAX), and in the US the DJIA and NASDAQ.

Foreign exchange market

USD / RUB today can move under the influence of two important factors: the fundamental in the form of falling oil prices and political planning in the form of a tripartite meeting of the contact group to resolve the situation in the Donets Basin with the participation of Ukraine, Russia and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) . Factors carry a different effect, may in the first half of the day lead to the consolidation of the pair within a narrow range. The fact is that from a meeting in Minsk can expect positive changes in the geopolitical conflict, especially after the recent meaningful comments Francois Hollande. This factor can strengthen the ruble. However, after less than 67.00 after the close of trading on the ruble Brent oil can cause morning «gap» up to 80-100 points.

So, what will happen to the EUR / USD this week, poor economic catalysts? Investors will have time to reflect and reposition Now that we know that the ECB does have opposition to the quantitative easing, and now that we’ve got less «soft» comments from Mario Draghi last Thursday. The couple had already started to adjust upward after Friday crash on data from the United States, and by the way, themselves US data and can help the euro to continue recovery. Several representatives of the Federal Reserve has hinted that at the next meeting of the FOMC (December 17) the rhetoric will not change, and investors want it very much and have even partly laid aggression Fed rates. If the market will begin to appear doubts about the attitude of the American regulator, and several reports also confirm that the US economy is not so rosy, the couple can go up again, although near and long. Key resistance in the coming days will mark 1.2380, which in November served as a good level of support, and in December, has acted as resistance. If the sample fails, we can expect moving back to the area of ​​1.2480.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from December 8, 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners