Review of the world’s major financial markets from December 4, 2014

Stock markets on Thursday and hoped to continue to strengthen, and everything is as it began, as many expected from the ECB announcement of the imminent transition to additional incentives. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) at the end of the day increased by 1.47%. However, immediately after the speech Draghi indices went down. Britain’s FTSE weakened by 0.55%, while Germany’s DAX fell 1.21%. US stock indexes showed a similar weakening.

Morning currencies held in narrow ranges, although the US dollar was held near recent highs, but the ECB meeting, where Draghi was not as «soft» as many would have helped to strengthen the demand for the European currency, which was broadcast in the massive decline in USD . USD / JPY has updated a maximum of 120.24, and immediately rolled down, closed in the area of ​​119.80. EUR / USD slipped to 1.2280, and then ran to a maximum of 1.2456 and closed in the area of ​​1.2380. There is talk that in the camp of the governing board at least 4 ardent opponent move to QE only strengthened the demand for the euro. GBP / USD followed in the footsteps of the euro, reaching the maximum 1.5724, but closed in the area of ​​1.5680. USD / RUB began trading at around 52.81, but throughout the day continued to increase, ending trading at around 54.80.

Oil prices traded within a narrow range, apparently completely survived threads OPEC summit. Yesterday Brent opened trading at $ 60.84, then eased a bit in the area of ​​$ 68.81, completing trades near 69.50.

All precious metals are also stable, a little pullback from recent highs. XAU / USD finished trading at around $ 1205.50, and XAG / USD was trading around 16.40 to a close Thursday.

Forecast for Friday, December 5


For gold today may come the moment of truth — the last day the prices stayed within a relatively narrow range in preparation for an important report on the US labor market. If the ECB meeting it has not made much of an impression that the US data is always evoked response from the asset. If the release will give a hint that the world’s largest economy is recovering not such a steady pace, it could trigger a wave of flight to safer assets, such as precious metal has a leading position. We already know about the weakening GDP figures in Europe and Asia, the United States, too disappointed if, at the XAU / USD, finally, will be able to break through $ 1214 and get closer to $ 1240.

Stock market

Today, it is possible that the ball will be ruled by the US stock markets, as they will get a report on levels of employment payrolls as a strong catalyst for volatility. We have to admit that the DJIA and NASDAQ did not always respond to this publication, but today, investors will be very careful, because the expectations of an early transition mode tightening look exaggerated. If the data disappoint, it could convince markets that the Fed will prefer to keep the ultrasoft terms of monetary policy for a longer period. As you know, it’s only on hand the corporate sector and, therefore, it has a chance to see the growth index of at least 1%. Why do we think that there is a strong probability of the data more in detail in the section «Foreign Exchange Market».

Foreign exchange market

Now that we have gone through the ECB, all investors will be focused on data from the US labor market. Since it is a good pace of employment recovery has become one of the main arguments in favor of a speedy transition to higher interest rates the Fed, the market is closely monitoring the dynamics of a report on levels of employment payrolls (NFP). So, currently leading indicators suggest that from NFP should not expect pleasant surprises. Firstly, the components of the ISM employment in manufacturing (54.9 to 55.5) and in the services sector (56.7 from 59.6) came out worse than expected. Second, the ADP report on private sector employment also fell short of the predicted values ​​(208 thousand instead of the forecast 221 thousand), and the 4-week moving average of applications for benefits b / r has grown to 299 thousand from 279 thousand at the time of publication of the last report «nonfarmam.» Although there were slight evidence in favor of employment growth: report Challenger in terms of layoffs showed a decrease to 35.94 from 51.183 thousand months ago.

Thus, the chances are quite high to see the level of employment below the predicted values, and this will be the second consecutive disappointing report, undermining confidence in the stability of the US economic recovery. For USD / JPY pair this outcome could lead to a sharp reversal from the nearest support level at around 119.30 and the further aim at 118.70. The stronger the disappointment, the more impressive it can fall.

USD / RUB moved away from record highs, largely due to the actions of the Bank of Russia, which in addition to the interventions made one more attempt to reduce the demand for foreign currency, determined to bring the rates on foreign currency repo to LIBOR +50 bp, which is 4 times lower than previous values. Such actions, of course, support the position of the ruble in relation to addressing the issue of currency shortages, although it may not be fully played out at the moment. In addition, the current levels of USD / RUB are too high, thus further endangering the further intervention of the Central Bank through intervention, and this may limit the further growth of the pair.


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Review of the world's major financial markets from December 4, 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners