Review of the world’s major financial markets from December 30, 2014

It seems that the stock markets have decided to complete the pre-Christmas rally on Monday. Now they are in active fall to a new wave of fear that the coming year will bring new pressures for the corporate sector. It all started with Asia, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) at the end of trading day lost nearly 2%. Meanwhile, Britain’s FTSE fell by 0.83%, while the German DAX — by 1.21%. US stock indexes also suffered losses.

With the fall of the stock markets went pressure on the US currency on fears that the background of weak global growth and the Fed will have to wait a rate increase. Set the tone USD / JPY, which had fallen on the general risk-free flight to the yen on the sale of equity assets. Couple collapsed to almost 2-week low of 118.85, closed in the area of ​​119.50. EUR / USD rebounded from a low of 1.2123 to 1.2150 area. GBP / USD 1.5499 from the low back to 1.5555. USD / RUB also weakened to 55.05 on the day high of 58.54.

Crude oil futures continued to fall, but restrained, and were able to recover some of the losses to the closing day. Brent opened trading at $ 58.01, updated 5.5-year low of $ 56.73, returning to the area of ​​$ 57.47 to close.

Precious metals have been quick to take advantage of the weakness of the dollar and the flight from the stock markets. As a result, XAU / USD closed at around $ 1198.92 per ounce, almost a pullback from 2-week high of $ 1,210.58 and silver — went to 16.24.

Forecast for Wednesday, December 31

Stock market

Rally in the US stock markets at the end of the year still held (until Monday), but will we see something like that on the index Dow Jones (YM) and at the beginning of 2015? Remains an open question, especially given the behavior of the benchmark statistics in the past. Quotes grew 7 days in a row, adding s and this time around 1000 points. Last year, the index rose in 10 of the 12 trading sessions in a row, gaining 837.23 pips. or 5.3% and closed the year at historic highs. Then came January, and the index of the first day has fallen by 135.31 point, but for the whole month — at 1203.68 pkt., Or 7.3%, before you start a new rally. The situation could happen again this year, especially given the sharp appreciation of the Dow Jones in the last days. Thus, it makes sense to consider short-term short positions on the index with the immediate goal in the area of ​​17760.


Gold is very volatile asset, but the statistics may still occasionally help in his prediction. For instance, analyzing its dynamics over the past 9 years, it may be noted that virtually January — the strongest month for him. XAU / USD increased in 6 of the 9 cases, with an average growth rate for all nine years is 3.9%. Moreover, most of the growth continued in February: it was not a very favorable dynamics for gold the past year. In February, 10% of the added asset, and then demonstrated the weakness of the remaining months of the year. Given the still high risk of new geopolitical conflicts, especially against the backdrop of growing tension US-North Korea, it is possible that investors will again seek «refuge» in gold. The immediate goal is the level of $ 1214 per ounce.

Foreign exchange market

USD / RUB made attempts to continue building on Tuesday, but it’s not for the government to enter into in 2015 at such low levels of the national currency. It threatens higher inflation even during the holidays, so the government has taken every effort to strengthen the position of the ruble. His role was played by the Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, noted the low probability of excessive demand for foreign currency in the next year. Moreover, there is reason to believe that we saw yesterday and an impressive central bank intervention. As a result, steam enters near 2015 55.00. Nevertheless, we maintain our forecast for a moderate weakening of the national currency in the next year, and each pair of weakening recommend you to use as an attractive entry point for long positions.

Last weekend, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble spoke in support of the need to implement a program of quantitative easing by the ECB. In an interview with the newspaper «Bild» he said that the regulator has a right to make their decisions independently, and while listening to the arguments Weidmann, «Germany can not always do everything only in its own way.» Recall that it was the head of the Bundesbank, Jens Weidmann actively opposed the implementation of incentive programs that may still remain a major barrier to the implementation of planned Mario Draghi. All this means that the number of supporters of the implementation of QE is growing, and with it the chances of a speedy implementation of the package of measures. Thus, we reiterate to sell EUR / USD in the medium term. The immediate goal on the way down can be a mark of 1.20, and the current higher levels look attractive entry points into the market.


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Review of the world's major financial markets from December 30, 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners