Review of the world’s major financial markets from December 29, 2014

It’s time to settle down and spend this year in narrow ranges, and even the Greek elections are not mixed cards investors. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) at the end of trading day grew by 0.3% symbolic. Meanwhile, the British FTSE closed virtually «Flat» and Germany’s DAX with losses of 0.3%. US stock indexes also fluctuated in the zero zone.

Greek politicians have failed to approve a candidate for president Stavros Dimas after the third attempt. This will cause a new election to be held on 25 January. Given the high chance of winning center-left, the program will save the country in question and, therefore, questionable stability of the entire eurozone. It is not surprising drop EUR / USD to 2.5-year low of 1.2142 and closing trades in the area of ​​1.2150. USD / JPY closed trading close to recent highs — in the area of ​​120.70. GBP / USD succumbed to emotions in connection with the Greek elections and came down to the area of ​​1.5520. USD / RUB received a new impetus for growth at the opening of the week due to the weakening of oil prices and the end of the tax period. The pair returned to the area-week high 57.50 at the close.

Crude oil futures continue to remain under pressure as market confidence in the declining global demand for energy continues to put pressure on the asset. Brent opened trading at $ 59.74, updated 5.5-year low of $ 57.35, returning to the area of ​​$ 58.00 to close.

Precious metals reacted to the general strengthening of the US dollar, as well as failure in the breakdown of the next technical barriers. As a result, XAU / USD closed at around $ 1181.40 per ounce, and silver — went to 15.75.

Forecast for Tuesday, December 30

Stock market

So, the year came to an end and it is time to look to the future and try to find the most attractive tools for 2015. Among the assets of the stock market one of the most interesting events can be share technology giant IBM. The company has a stable position with a current market capitalization of $ 156.9 billion and EBITDA of $ 4.5 billion for the first three quarters of 2014, but it did not save her from the sharp drop observed in the last months of the 52-week high of $ 199.21 before low of $ 150.50, reached on December 16th. All this is due to management’s attempts to translate the company’s focus from hardware to cloud computing. Revenue IBM began to fall. Over the past five years, sales growth is negative. EPS for the 3rd quarter was $ 3.48, disappointing analysts who expected to see $ 4.31. The company’s shares have retreated to the area of ​​$ 161.80 after the release of stronger-than-expected data on the earnings of the company Oracle, which stimulated demand for shares of the technology sector.

Nevertheless, investors still remain concerns about the prospects of IBM in connection with a pretty stiff competition in the market of cloud computing — Microsoft, Amazon and Google also entered the market. However, IBM has already have positive results: revenues from cloud business for the current year increased by 50% and the customer base has doubled to 20 thousand. Signed with cloud companies (Lufthansa, WPP and ABN Amro) agreements will run into the billions in new contracts . In addition, signed a partnership agreement with Apple (AAPL), Twitter, AT & T, SAP, and Microsoft. All this will be the key to good growth in the coming year, and the current relatively low levels — an excellent entry point to a long position.

Commodities

Prices for Brent crude though not gone far from the bottom of the recent range, but clearly further confirmed the trend of decline. Expectations of a drop in prices and supported by a clear attitude of representatives of the cartel to continue to put pressure on their asset pessimistic statements. In addition, even escalating geopolitical tension in the form of reports of attacks on Libya’s largest oil port last week, as well as news of a record in the last 2 years the reduction of working wells in the United States could not support the recovery of the asset. This means that the offer on the market is so large, and the prospects for growth in demand is so small that even the military conflicts in oil-producing countries, as well as the gradual reduction of US production not disturb the market. Recently published data on oil reserves in the US only confirm the excess reserves: figure rose to 7.27 million barrels for the week ended December 19, noting the highest level in the last two months. If Brent confirm probe lower range $ 58,00- $ 63.50, can be expected to accelerate the movement in the area of ​​$ 55.00 per barrel.

Foreign exchange market

The decision to sell state-owned companies of foreign currency earnings exporters supported the position of the ruble, but on Monday we saw that the great danger of a new wave of the weakening of the Russian currency, especially from the beginning of next year. It will be connected with several factors. Firstly, the Ministry of Finance with the January 2015 may start buying the currency to replenish their reserves. Moreover, the current levels provide a fairly favorable environment for such operations. In addition, a new wave coming foreign debt payments. In January, Russian companies will have to repay the obligation in the amount of $ 5 billion, well below the 30 billion in December, but still could destabilize the position of the ruble. Thus, the current levels on USD / RUB look quite attractive for opening long positions with the target in the area of ​​61.00 in the coming days.

Despite the lack of important economic reports in the remaining days of the year, interesting events in the market is still going on. And they relate to unexpected moves by the Japanese authorities. Recently released data confirmed a sharp decline in the saving rate among the population. The index moved into negative territory (-1.3%) in the history of reference of the statistics (since 1955). This differs significantly from the peak levels seen in 1975 (23.1%) and could spell big trouble for the newly elected Shinzo Abe. Perhaps in response to this news, the Japanese authorities last Saturday approved a new stimulus package of $ 29 billion, which will be directed to the development of lagging regions and to support the population through subsidies. The Government believes that this step will help to increase Japan’s GDP by 0.7%. While such long-term results in question, but for the USD / JPY is another reason to continue its growth with the immediate goal at around 122.00.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from December 29, 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners