Review of the world’s major financial markets from December 24, 2014

Most stock indices in the pre-trading day stayed in the «Flat». Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) at the end of trading day up 0.1%. Meanwhile, Britain’s FTSE added 0.12%, while the German DAX — 0,04%. US stock indexes also fluctuated in the zero zone.

Last holiday day in the currency market was full of boredom and tranquility. The dominance of the US dollar is still in force after the unexpectedly sharp revision of GDP data for the 3rd quarter. In addition, published on Wednesday and labor market data did not disappoint: the 4-week moving average down to 290.25 thousand. Against 298.75 thousand earlier. USD / JPY retreated slightly from the highs on Tuesday and closed at 120.40 area. EUR / USD was unable to get back above 1.22, although attempts have been made. GBP / USD was fixed in the area of ​​1.5540, adjusted from recent lows against the backdrop of stronger-than-expected data on the performance and cost of the labor market. USD / RUB, too, began to behave in a more restrained spending the day within fairly narrow ranges. However, the pair managed to close down the area of ​​53.30.

Crude oil futures came under a little pressure on the newly emerging concern that even accelerating growth of the US economy will not be able to increase the demand for energy enough to absorb the growing market offer. Brent opened trading at $ 61.22, and touched the local high of $ 62.67, but down in the area of ​​$ 60.30 to close.

Precious metals are still under pressure, and fell back from the lows Monday. Recent data have confirmed the acceleration of US economic growth, reduced demand for «safe-haven assets.» As a result, XAU / USD closed at around $ 1174 per ounce, and silver — went to 15.70.

Forecast for Friday, December 26

Since Thursday commodity markets are closed today forecasted part is not quite normal — we touch on interesting facts that can help you in trading. Usually, the last two weeks of December are characterized by accelerated growth in the stock markets — a phenomenon known as «Santa rally». Indeed, the past twenty years, growth stocks in this period is faster than annual averages. But this year, the chances do not see anything like this, and there are several reasons.

Firstly, the high risk of adverse developments seen with Greece. December 29 is scheduled third round of the presidential elections, and if the country wins the movement opposing the austerity measures, it would call into question the possibility of the ECB to implement a program of buying up assets in 2015. It will be important for the dynamics of the German DAX index and the euro. If in the third round will not get the necessary votes, the European stock market will begin to experience the sale, and the single currency may strengthen. For EUR / USD, this may mean a return to the area of ​​1.24.

Second, the weak state of the energy market. Crumbling oil prices — this is good news for consumers, but for the oil and gas sector, and this can mean fewer jobs in the near future. We are already seeing a sharp reduction in the total number of working wells in the United States that could be the first signal to reduce costs. Falling profits and future prospects sad oil companies could put pressure on the key stock index, calculated that the energy sector has an impressive share — for example, it concerns the NASDAQ-100 (NQ) and Dow Jones (YM). In addition, can react and oil prices: if the next data on the number of operating wells, which will be available as early as next week, will show a further fall in the index, Brent growth can respond to the upper limit laid down for the last few days the range of $ 59,00- $ 63.50 per barrel.

Third, in the ports of the US West Coast for two months to continue the strike, which dramatically reduced trading activity during this period. This means that in the coming months we will see a negative impact on economic data, taking into account the trade component, for example, in orders for durable goods (already last report came out worse than expected), as well as in retail sales. Undoubtedly, the scale of deterioration will be limited, so that the bullish trend for the USD is unlikely to be affected, but the mood of the stock markets may spoil. Splash fears about the stability of the growth rate of the US economy may cause a fall in US stock indices and short-term demand for «assets asylum», for example, gold (XAU / USD).


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Review of the world's major financial markets from December 24, 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners