Review of the world’s major financial markets from December 22, 2014

It seems that we still see in this year’s «Christmas rally» in the stock markets. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) at the end of trading day rose by 0.8%, the British FTSE added 0.4%, while the German DAX — 0,8%. US stock indexes also showed growth in the range of one percent

Despite the decline in trading activity on the US dollar reached highs, and the lack of economic developments, the US currency is clearly in favor as investors see no adequate alternatives that currency. As a result, USD / JPY tried to break through 120.00. EUR / USD slipped to a 2.5-year low at 1.2216 area. GBP / USD has broken through the support of 1.56 and completed trades near 1.5580. Only USD / RUB interrupted series of growth, supported by the oil and the tax period from the opening level of 57.70 the pair slipped to 2-week low of 53.84, closed in the area of ​​55.89.

Crude oil futures reached the upper boundary of the 10-day range and for some time traded in the area, but regular comments from representatives of OPEC collapses quotes. Brent has grown to a local maximum of $ 62.92, but during the American session back near $ 60.39.

Precious metals seemed huddled in a narrow range, and are not going to show sharp fluctuations in the coming weeks against the background of an empty economic calendar. However, the US session changed everything — after unsuccessful attempts to penetrate the next resistance levels on the stage sellers who have fallen sharply assets in a thin market. As a result, XAU / USD returned to 3-week low of $ 1,170.64 after failing to break through the resistance area $ 1,203 per ounce, and silver — from a maximum 16.14 to $ 15.60 spent.

Forecast for Tuesday, December 23

Commodities

So, yesterday, Saudi Oil Minister said that they are willing to increase production to fight for market share. It collapses and quotes Brent. Despite the fact that OPEC persistently denies the need for intervention in the current situation in the energy market and confirms that it will not limit the volume of production, the cartel actually achieves at least stabilization of quotations by their behavior, as calling into question the profitability of shale projects. At the moment, Brent traded above $ 60 a barrel, and if the number of operating wells in the United States will continue to fall, it could strengthen the position of «black gold«.

It is worth noting that over the past week the number has continued to decline. Recent data from the third-largest oil and gas service company in the world, Baker Hughes said that the total number of wells in the development decreased by 18 to 1875. Recall that last week the index fell to a record in two years 27 wells. Thus, this leading indicator of activity in the oilfield industry says that the collapse of quotations is already beginning to put pressure on the US shale market, and perhaps we can see the emergence of a trend to reduce production. If our assumptions are confirmed, we can consider the short-term long positions in Brent on corrections in the area of ​​$ 59 per barrel.

Stock market

Apple (AAPL) since the beginning of December, when it hit its historic high of $ 119.66 per share, lost more than 10%, going down to the local minimum of $ 106.25 last Tuesday. This caused a small panic over the fact that we are witnessing a repeat of the dynamics observed in September 2012. Undoubtedly, in the current environment, we should not exclude such an option, particularly if the difficult economic conditions in developing countries will spread to the whole world. However, while the chances of such an outcome are low, and the situation for investors can bring interesting possibilities. The recent drop in stocks is more like a correction after a very long period of growth (9 of the last 10 months the positive dynamics). In addition, the role played by and the behavior of stock indices, frightened by a sharp collapse of stock markets in developing countries and a further decline in oil prices: Dow Jones (YM) demonstrated a similar massive decline before resuming growth index.

However, if you look forward, the results of the current quarter could be phenomenal. Sales amounted iPhone-s 60-70 million, and more costly model «6 Plus» will significantly increase profits. Payment ApplePay already become a «hit», and the new platform HealthKit looks very promising. Thus, the growth potential for the shares of Apple, in our opinion, has clearly not been exhausted, but the current lower levels may be an attractive entry point into the market before the company reported its impressive results.

Foreign exchange market

USD / RUB stabilized, and the couple for good reason. As usual, this steady above $ 60 a barrel quotes varieties Brent. Particularly pleased that even on statements by OPEC probability increase production, oil showed only a moderate fall and could not resist a return to recent lows. However, another important factor in strengthening the position of the ruble in the near future may become tax payments: until Thursday the company will have to pay about 550 billion rubles, which will be for some time to support the demand for the national currency. It is possible that the pair will try again descend to the area of ​​53.80, but do not think for a long time. Current levels may become an attractive entry point into the market long.

New Year’s turmoil has gripped the financial world, and the current week will already be curtailed in terms of trading in connection with the impending celebration of the Catholic Christmas. Usually markets during this period are very quiet, as most participants close their positions, turn off the computer and devote themselves to their families. However, in these uncertain times of reduced liquidity conditions can cause a hazardous environment: any geopolitical event could cause an exaggerated response of financial instruments. Of course, the chances of such an outcome is not so great: all that was possible, including the collapse of oil, the sale of the ruble and unexpected decision by the Central Bank of Russia and Switzerland, have already occurred and are incorporated in the price. Today States will publish final GDP data for the 3rd quarter, as well as a report on orders for durable goods, which is expected to exceeding expectations. Further evidence of a stable pace of recovery of the US economy can support a new wave of demand for the USD, which is within the reduced liquidity could cause sudden changes of currency pairs. It is possible that EUR / USD will try to break through the support of 1.22 and go to the area of ​​1.2140, not seen since August 2012.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from December 22, 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners