Review of the world’s major financial markets from December 2, 2014

Stock markets, for the most part, held Tuesday in the «green». Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) at the end of the day added 1.5%. Britain’s FTSE rose by 1.29%, but the German DAX lost 0.30%, continuing a correction from the strong resistance level at around 10,000.

Tuesday morning went quite quietly, and only AUD / USD currency trading brightened again breaking 0.85 and rolled into the area 0.8450 — all in response to another hint from the head of the RBA on the subject need to «weak currency». However, in the afternoon, the US dollar began to strengthen its position. USD / JPY has updated a maximum of 119.28, 119.10 rollback area on the close. EUR / USD retreated from yesterday’s highs around 1.2390, in connection with the strengthening of the US dollar, and in connection with the release of PPI data is rather weak eurozone. GBP / USD most of the day was kept above 1.57, but was forced to hand over the position and slide into the 1.5650 area this afternoon. USD / RUB day of the «gap» down, reaching the mark 50.40, but immediately resumed growth, historical highs at around 54.03.

Meanwhile, oil prices seem to have fully experienced the theme of the summit of OPEC, and stabilized. Yesterday Brent whole day stay above $ 70 a barrel, ending trading at $ 70.73, a pullback from a daily high of 73.00.

Precious metals fell back a bit from the highs Monday at the general strengthening of the US dollar. However, the correction has been rather restrained. XAU / USD finished trading at around $ 1200, and XAG / USD was trading around 16.44 to the end of Tuesday.

Forecast for Wednesday, December 3

Commodities

The price of gold hiding in the neighborhood of $ 1,200 per ounce, corrected from the highs on Monday, but it is very interesting that on the background of the impressive strengthening of the US dollar and rising stock markets, the precious metal in no hurry to take positions. It is possible that the asset will make a short break before once again to resume the upward movement, and an incentive to strengthen the demand for the XAU / USD can become somewhat weak reports from the United States. Let’s look at today’s state of the US services sector — the basis of world’s largest economy. The immediate goal on the way up for gold could be around $ 1240 as soon as the resistance of $ 1214 will be broken.

Stock market

Germany’s DAX several trading sessions in a row struggling with strong resistance 10000, and although attempts to pass above has been marked with a touch of 10040 level, the fact that the index is not even lasted up to the June high 10053 can talk about the probability of a reversal of the upward trend. If it was not scheduled for this week’s meeting of the ECB, and which will be decisive for the benchmark.

Lately, the market price in an active lays the likelihood that already at the next meeting Mario Draghi dare to present a full program of quantitative easing, similar to what we have seen in the United States and Japan. If, at a press conference scheduled for Thursday, the head of the ECB will make it more clear hints about the size and timing of stimulation, it may be a good reason for DAX, finally break the mark of 10,000 and update record highs above 10050.

Nevertheless, there is a good chance to see this time more restrained performance Draghi, given the recovery of economic indicators from Germany, and strong opposition of the representatives of the ECB Governing Council. If so, then drop in the index can be quite impressive, with a probability of rollback in the area 9800.

Foreign exchange market

Yesterday, USD / RUB was under the influence of several factors. First, large-scale strengthening of the US dollar weighed on the ruble throughout the day. Secondly, in the middle of the day came the revised forecasts for a fall at the exchange rate for 2015 from the Ministry, and they were revised and impressive (from 37.7 to 49). Thirdly, there was an official statement on the suspension of the project «South Stream», which to date has already been invested $ 40 billion. Today, a lot will depend on the dynamics of the US dollar and the results of the US reports. It is possible that after the impressive growth USD Tuesday, adjust the currency down, and allow the pair to move away from record highs.

Today, the market’s attention will be focused on US data on business activity in the service sector ISM. And the most important thing in these data will be in the dynamics of employment index, since it was he, more than anyone else, allows to predict the results of Friday’s report on US labor market (Non-Farm Payrolls). The thing is that in the service sector employs about 80% of American workers, which means that the employment component of ISM precisely for this sector is the most accurate picture of employment in the last month. If the index is weaker than the previous forecast released, it can be a strong signal to the fact that Friday’s report also disappoint. Given the behavior of the USD lately, there is reason to believe that he is overbought, and pleasant surprises economic unlikely to cause a violent reaction of the market, but the film could provoke exaggerated movements. For the EUR / USD, this may mean an opportunity to re-test the 1.2480 mark. Hoth do not think that the euro will last a long time, because the correction in the run-up to the ECB meeting is almost inevitable.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from December 2, 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners