Review of the world’s major financial markets from December 18, 2014

Thursday brought joy and delight on the stock markets in most countries, as the flow of positive data from Europe, the recovery in oil prices, as well as the Bank’s decision to lower the target Switzerland Libor rate to a negative value triggered a wave of optimism in the afternoon. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) at the end of trading day lost only 0.2%. Meanwhile, Britain’s FTSE gained 0.5%, while the German DAX — 1,9%. US stock indexes also grew by more than 1.5%.

The foreign exchange market continued trading under the sign of love for the US dollar, the Swiss National Bank only added fuel to the fire, highlighting the benefits of the US currency in the form of more aggressive Fed. As a result, USD / JPY touched 119.30 maximum, closed in the area of ​​118.70. EUR / USD slipped to 1.2265 minimum, even though the output of the stronger-than-expected data IFO (economic sentiment index 101.1 against 100.5), to close at 1.2280. USD / CHF touched a 2.5-year high of 0.9847. Only GBP / USD was able to resist the pressure, supported by a very strong retail sales (1.6% vs. 0.4%), a sense of hope that the consumer market will be able to accelerate the pace of recovery of the British economy. Couple grows up to 1.5676, closing trades a few points below. USD / RUB yesterday opened bids for 58.27, reaching out to a local maximum of 63.35 and completed trades near 60.96.

Crude oil futures are attempting to find their range. Yesterday quotes grew throughout the day, until the next pessimistic comments by OPEC does not cut off the reinforcement. Brent has grown to 6-day high of $ 63.66, but during the American session as quickly rolled back, completing trades near 59.17.

Precious metals also made attempts to go further, however strong technical barriers and unfavorable fundamentals launched direction. As a result, XAU / USD returned to the area of ​​$ 1,196 after failing to break through the resistance area $ 1,214 per ounce, and silver — from a maximum 16.20 to $ 15.80 spent.

Forecast for Friday, December 19

Commodities

Brent continues to fluctuate within the established range for the last week. Nothing wrong, except the endless negative comments by OPEC does not happen, so the lower limit of around $ 58.50 looks quite stable in the current environment. And, interestingly, each approximation to the «bottom» of the current range is accompanied by a rebound in the area near the upper limit of $ 63.60. It is likely a similar trend we will see in the last trading day of the week.

In general, it seems that investors are not ready to pull the oil below $ 58 a barrel, but the representatives of the cartel still insist on it. Very strange sounding almost daily performances of the energy ministers from the representatives of the different countries of OPEC, which repeat almost the same thing: «We do not really like the current market price, but we would not reduce the volume of production.» Apparently, the cartel is trying to convey to the originator of the current fall in prices — the United States — the main message: «who increased the volume to disparate levels of demand, the same shall cuts. In such circumstances, it makes sense to consider the trade in a narrow range of $ 58 — $ 64 with purchases at the lower boundary and sales at the top.

Stock market

DAX quite in line with our expectations for yesterday added nearly 2%, but the chances are that the index will not stop and try again to test the 10,000 mark Aggressive attitude Fed and the unexpected decision of the Swiss National Bank attracted investors’ attention to the situation in the euro area and increased the chances that the transition to a regime of quantitative easing, the ECB has to produce the next meetings. All of this, up to the meeting of the central bank, will warm up demand for the German index, which has very good prospects for growth in the coming quarters.

Foreign exchange market

USD / RUB was calmer in its dynamics, but it does not make us more confident in its position in the future. Yesterday’s stabilization at lower levels may well be the calm before the next storm. The fact that the ruble has appreciated due to obvious factors: correction after a massive sell-off taken by the Central Bank measures the performance of Vladimir Putin, confirmed that the exchange controls in the current environment is excluded, as well as, most importantly, strengthening of prices for Brent crude up to 6 daily maximum. Even the exception of one of these favorable factors may become a new reason for the growth in the area of ​​the pair 70,00. And the dynamics of oil prices during the US session suggests that today the ruble will open bids «gap» down, possibly in 68.00.

The global currcy markeent EUR / USD continues to beat «anti-record» very quickly lost all earned over the past week on expectations the Fed inaction. Past FOMC meeting put the record straight «and». Despite the fact that in the accompanying statement were the words of the «patience» and «prolonged period of low interest rates», the market saw what he wanted to see — the words Yellen that at the next couple of meetings rate will not be changed, signaled to action. And her response to the clarification question that the «couple» means «two», but assured investors that rates will rise in April. Of course, all this is very controversial, and even while it is unlikely, given the inexperience of Janet in conversations with journalists. However, the most important thing is not whether there will be, and then — what to expect. Now the Fed expecting an early tightening, and the ECB will soon launch more QE. By the way, the SNB unexpected decision to reduce the rate to negative values ​​only further convince markets that it is a step that precedes the action of the ECB, which could further weaken the euro and endanger the protected Swiss bank abroad 1.20 EUR / CHF. Thus, the chances are that on EUR / USD, we will soon also see the level of 1.20.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from December 18, 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners