Review of the world’s major financial markets from December 17, 2014

Wednesday was for most stock indices on the positive, as the situation in the oil market has stabilized somewhat, and FOMC meeting revealed that the Fed is not yet ready for an early tightening. As a result, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) at the end of trading day lost only 0.2%. Britain’s FTSE gained 1.6%, while the German DAX — 1,57%. US stock indexes also grew by more than 1%.

The foreign exchange market during the day was in excitement, a little regret, I did it with the dollar last days. That is why, most likely, to the close of trading even slurred speech, Janet Yellen most players decided to return to the good old dollar as alternatives to him too much no. In addition, words to the effect that the next two meetings will not increase, were interpreted as «the first tightening will be in April.» As a result, USD / JPY back above 118, closed in the area of ​​118.60. EUR / USD slipped to a minimum 1.2321 to close at 1.2350. GBP / USD went down to 1.5543, but returned to the area of ​​1.5570. USD / RUB yesterday opened bids for 67.72, at this very hour peaked 71.00, and is no longer rising, descending to the level of 61.48 at the close.

Yesterday, it seems, crude oil futures «bottomed», which provoked sharp appreciation of the asset during the US session. At first, the «black gold» has been under pressure constant news of harvest levels Russia, as well as the growth of oil reserves in Cushing. Brent went to the area of ​​$ 58.70, but at some point the market will be the fear that it is too low for an asset that dramatically returned quotes to $ 63.43, but they fell back to close at $ 60.70 area per barrel.

Precious metals fell victim overheated expectations about the Fed meeting, as well as the rather weak data on US inflation, which often exert pressure on the «safe-haven assets.» As a result, XAU / USD pulled back from a low of $ 1,183.55 to $ 1,186.40 an ounce at the close, and silver — from 15.58 to $ 15.74.

Forecast for Thursday, December 18

Commodities

Gold yesterday suffered the loss, going down to the area of ​​2.5-week lows under the influence is still weak inflationary pressures in the United States, which reduces the chances that the market will begin to run from the rise in prices in the «safe haven.» However, in the precious metal is not lost. XAU / USD has made repeated attempts to switch to the strengthening and growth of the current tension and panic in the markets create good conditions for attracting the attention of investors to the asset. In 2008, the precious metal also did not immediately began to move up, while consolidating and assessing the situation. However, in the last two months of 2008, an asset added to the price of 20% and then another long demonstrated strengthening. It is possible if the current slowdown in the world economy — it is a harbinger of recession and panic in the markets of developing countries has only just begun, we are at the beginning of a long uptrend in gold.

Stock market

Today, it makes sense to pay attention to the DAX, which yesterday finally pushed away from the mark 9200 and was able to properly harden. This is partly a technical correction, and partly a game of contrasts: yesterday’s FOMC meeting confirmed the willingness of the Fed to move in tightening mode, and even there were some specific terms: words Yellen that for the next two meetings will not increase, were interpreted as » first tightening will be in April. » Given the fact that the ECB is clearly intended to stimulate the economy even more and, most likely, in the first quarter, it makes much more attractive than the German index of American colleagues. Thus, it is possible that the growth of the asset will continue today, and the immediate goal on the way up can be 9800.

Foreign exchange market

USD / RUB stabilized somewhat, although still at relatively high levels. However, pressure on the ruble continues to provide not only a market panic, but a further fall in oil prices, which yesterday again reaches 58.70, then attempted to get stronger. The undoubted advantage was the intervention of the Russian authorities in the form of verbal and in the form of foreign exchange intervention. The Ministry of Finance has clearly stated that the ruble is fundamentally undervalued, and also promised to sell foreign exchange balances. In addition, the Bank of Russia has developed a package of seven measures aimed at restricting the supply of ruble liquidity, increasing the supply of foreign currency liquidity and smoothing of monetary shocks. The collection of all these events have helped close the pair is trading at 59.70. Moreover, after the close of trading on the ruble, oil prices rose slightly, and the Fed has made it clear that he does not hurry with the transition to higher rates. Both of these factors are able to support the Russian currency at the opening, however, do not think that much.

In world currency markets today, most likely, will reign mode of profit-taking after a long wait the outcome of the FOMC, which, in fact, did not bring anything new, except that himself came up with the market. It is possible that after yesterday’s stronger dollar virtually from scratch, the currency will adjust a little. And if the British retail sales or German IFO data will be higher than forecast, the US currency may lose no less a figure against their rivals.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from December 17, 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners