Review of the world’s major financial markets from December 16, 2014

Stock markets showed contradictory dynamics, since the initial wave of weakness due to the collapse of the indices of developing countries was replaced by certainty that this will cause the Fed to refrain from harsh statements. As a result, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) at the end of trading day lost 0.8%. Britain’s FTSE added 1.24%, while the German DAX — 1,4%. US stocks traded mixed.

Undoubtedly, the star of the foreign exchange market yesterday was the Russian ruble, which not only caused panic among Russians, but also provoked the collapse of stock markets in developing countries, causing investors to rush into safe-haven assets. Against this background, strengthened expectations that the Fed at the next meeting will be quite restrained in his statements that put pressure on the US dollar. As a result, USD / JPY per day could go down to the November 115.55 minimum, but by the end of trading returned to the area of ​​117.30. EUR / USD was supported by a more optimistic economic expectations ZEW index and growing business, which helped the pair touched month high 1.2570, but the closing trades occurred at around 1.2490. GBP / USD opened at 1.5636 bids, slightly weakened under the influence of disappointing inflation data (-0.3% m / m vs. 0.0%), but understanding that this factor does not affect much on the position of the Bank of England has returned a couple force. In addition, the positive results of stress tests of banks supported the British movement to the level of 1.5784 and closing at 1.5720 happened. USD / RUB yesterday fell to 58.30 at the opening and reaches the 78.25 at the highs, completing trades near 67.26 and leaving everyone in disbelief.

Oil futures continued to fall down, breaking the next support levels and noting the new «anti-record» on statements by OPEC, which continue to assure the world that no one is going to reduce production and to convene an emergency meeting. Brent opened trading at $ 60.63 a barrel, slipped to $ 58.50, but finished trading at around $ 60.00.

Precious metals smell blood and celebrated the fall of stock markets in developing countries sharp strengthening. Unfortunately, the celebration did not last long. As a result, XAU / USD retreated from a maximum 1,223.37 to $ 1,196.44 an ounce at the close, and silver — from 16.63 to $ 15.70.

Forecast for Wednesday, December 17

Commodities

Brent continues to take positions and OPEC representatives are very active this helps. Yesterday issued Kuwait, confirmed that the two countries have agreed cartel not to convene an emergency meeting prior to any scheduled meeting in June. Finally, make sure that no one will disturb them bears took this as a signal to the sale and break the mark of $ 60 per barrel. The mark left behind, and in front of a new barrier in the form of $ 55 per barrel. Most likely, given the tacit agreement by OPEC, players will try to get close to this mark, and then not be excluded a significant correction. Thus, at the moment can be considered two tactics: the tight stop sales for the purpose of short-term and $ 55 on the purchase of this approach to the support with the aim to $ 59.

Stock market

Boeing (BA) yesterday was able to add almost 2% on the news about the increase in the share repurchase program to $ 12 billion from $ 10 billion previously. In addition, the quarterly dividend was increased by 25%, partly due to the fact that the company remains from the previous program ($ 4.8 billion). This solution significantly exceeded the expectations of investors, have a positive impact on the price of the asset.

Add to this the recent awareness of the Boeing Company of the fact that its market share is reduced single-aisle vessels and it has taken action. By 2030, plans to release a new generation aircraft, which will replace the not yet launched in the production of Boeing 737MAX. The reasons why the shipbuilder to think about starting a new project, was the competition from China: COMAC company is already working on the creation of advanced single-aisle C919 sun. Thus, these two news can be a good foundation for further strengthening the position of the stock in the long term.

Foreign exchange market

USD / RUB pair became the most popular of the week, judging by the number of articles and comments we have received over the past 24 hours. Distinguished and world politics, and independent analysts. However, the essence remains the same — the couple will demonstrate the high volatility in the coming months, not only due to the unfavorable dynamics of energy prices. The biggest problem at the moment is that the ability of the Bank of Russia to contain the ruble limited, and any attempt to strengthen the national currency will meet friendly onslaught of speculators who will gladly pick up the ruble at more attractive levels. The next few days, most likely, the ruble will find his range and settle down a bit due to the increased level of risk when playing such dangerous levels that deter speculators part. In addition, it is possible that the authorities will make attempts at verbal intervention, which may have some deterrent effect. However, the greatest value will continue to be the price of oil — only the restoration of Brent in the area of ​​$ 65 will be serious enough reason to sell the ruble to a halt.

Today, attention to yourself can win the US dollar, as the approaching meeting of the Fed’s monetary policy, and the markets will make a difference every word. Yellen will have to give a hint on how the Fed looks at the current situation in the world. If the focus is on the weak growth rates in Europe and Asia and vague economic prospects around the world are waiting for the US currency impressive sales. Moreover, it makes sense to pay attention to the report on the CPI, published in early US session. If the index continues to show weak price pressure, it will confirm that the FOMC does not make sense to accelerate the transition to a tightening mode.

However, there is little chance that the USD is still stronger. This will happen provided that the emphasis will be placed on the dynamics of oil prices. As you know, the fall in gasoline prices is a very big incentive for the US population to increase their spending. The cost of a gallon of gasoline in the US in mid-November 2014 the first time in the last four years has decreased to the level of $ 2.5. At the same time, according to economists Bloomberg, lower prices for 1 cent leads to an increase in consumer demand somewhere in the $ 1 billion.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from December 16, 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners