Review of the world’s major financial markets from December 15, 2014

Despite initial optimism, equity markets were forced to go red under the pressure of weak oil prices that threaten the profits of oil companies. As a result, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) opened bids «gap» down, but at the end of trading day rose by 0.21%. Britain’s FTSE lost 1.7%, while the German DAX — 2,5%. US stock indexes also traded in the «red».

Day was rich, and as the market reacted to the economic and geopolitical factors, including the terrorist attacks in Sydney and Abe victory party in the elections. In addition, in the afternoon wave swept the market risk of the flight at the last full trading week before Christmas. As a result, USD / JPY per day failed to break support 118.00 and closed in the area of ​​117.70. EUR / USD after an unsuccessful battle with the resistance of 1.2480 to 1.2440 slipped. GBP / USD trades at 1.5720 opened, but the whole day was emptied down on expectations of weak results of stress tests of British banks, which led the pair to 1.5630 at the close. USD / RUB dramatically accelerated the move up for the day adding 6 rubles from the opening level of 58.09 to a record 64.17, completing trades near 64.13.

Oil futures began on the morning of new lows, then tried to recover slightly, but by the close of trading collapsed again and concerns about weak global growth, as well as statements by representatives of OPEC, which once again confirmed. That even with oil prices of $ 40 per barrel is not ready to cut production volumes. Brent opened trading at $ 61.39 a barrel, up $ 63.44 strengthened, but finished trading at around $ 60.45.

Precious metals are already beginning to prepare for the most important moments of the week — the FOMC meeting on monetary policy. Since last week, the demand for gold has appreciated by postponing expectations in the first Fed rate hike, now we are seeing profit-taking before the actual event. As a result, XAU / USD finished trading at around $ 1192.00 per ounce, while silver slipped to $ 16.10 at the close.

Forecast for Tuesday, December 16


So, Brent yesterday after several attempts to gain a foothold again collapsed to lows not seen since July 2009. The flames were fanned statements by the Minister of Energy of the UAE Suhailya al-Mazrui, who confirmed that, although the current level of energy costs one of the oil producers are not satisfied, OPEC is not ready to intervene in the situation, even if prices fall below $ 40 per barrel. In fact, it was a tacit go-ahead to the new sell-Brent, for which the constraints are strong psychological level at $ 60 per barrel, as well as the risk of verbal intervention on the part of the cartel.

As we can see, it is OPEC set to fight with the «shale boom» the only effective way — dumping. How long will hold States in the race for market share is still unknown. However, the first interesting signals are already coming: at the end of last week there was a decrease in the number of working wells 29 units, was the sharpest drop since December 2009. In addition, the «oil states» (for example, Texas and Alaska) have already reported first cut of employees that have already forced to revise forecasts for sales of housing in the coming year by 12%. If this is the emergence of trends, then further reduction in price of oil may be stopped, and the strong support of $ 60 will only support a correction in the area of ​​$ 64 per barrel.

Stock market

Germany’s DAX second consecutive trading session moves down despite the fact that, in general, the situation has to continue to strengthen in the medium-term uptrend. Is likely to put pressure on the index just two factors:

1. The total panic in the stock markets, caused by falling shares of oil companies and the dramatic collapse of Russian assets.

2. The technical correction after reaching a multi-year high in the area of ​​10100.

Nevertheless, the fundamental picture suggests that the index is good growth potential under the influence of stimulus measures, which prepares the ECB. Recent comments of officials clearly given to understand that the full QE program can be run in the first quarter of next year. Thus, the current correction — a chance to enter the market at attractive lower levels. It is possible that the area will become a springboard for 9300 upward movement.

Foreign exchange market

USD / RUB yesterday terrified the whole world by their behavior, especially considering the fact that the couple actually ignored even in the middle of the day observed recovery of oil quotations. This is an obvious proof of that now rules the Russian currency is not oil, not even waiting for her, and panic fueled by a large number of rumors about the return of our country into the «98-year». Despite the fact that Russia’s position is undoubtedly more stable than in the 90s, the fact that the pair set an intraday record of growth since 1999. scares even the most balanced.

Nevertheless, after such a sharp fall under the influence of several factors emotional, we may well expect as impressive correction. Judge for yourself, the current week will be the last full trading five days, in which the reaction in the market can wear exaggerated character: pay attention to the behavior of the world markets, which also were not cold-blooded. Also yesterday, OPEC cheap shots — said that at $ 40 per barrel would refrain from intervening. Ruble in these conversations becomes very bad. But everything else poured oil on the fire and our central bank, providing a stress scenario, provided oil prices of $ 60 per barrel over the 20015-17′s. All ominous predictions fall on fertile soil speculative Russian market, which as always before the New Year getting ready for the next apocalypse. The idea is that this morning the Bank of Russia should go big intervention to bring down the currency, provoke triggering stops and profit-taking. Do not exclude a possibility of return to the area of ​​60.00.

USD / JPY is pretty interesting, especially given that Abe won and may well continue the implementation of its «ultra stimulus» plan, and FOMC may this week give hints on the timing of transition to the first rate increase. In addition, the Tankan report showed a drop in expectations to 12 of 13 predicted that only confirms the need for further intervention by the monetary authorities. The idea is that there are conditions for the resumption of growth of the pair, but the yen has strengthened in the area of ​​117.80. Looks like someone starts to doubt that the weakening of the US rate of the world economy will continue to prosper enough to decide on a rate hike in the first half of 2015. If Yellen validly refrain from signals in time and prefer a vague phrase, a couple chances to go down to the area of ​​115,00 immediately after the meeting FOMC, scheduled for Wednesday.


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Review of the world's major financial markets from December 15, 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners