Review of the world’s major financial markets from December 11, 2014

Yesterday Asian markets of Europe and continued to win back the subject of forecasts for global oil demand from OPEC and US indices more focused on economic reports. As a result, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) at the end of trading day rose by 0.66%. Britain’s FTSE lost 2%, while Germany’s DAX gained 0.65%. US stock indexes traded in the «green».

Thursday revived several bids abundance of interesting events ranging from meetings of the Bank of Russia on the rate and ending auction LTRO ECB. USD / JPY down in the early morning in the area of ​​117.40, but then de resumed growth, closed in the area of ​​119.10. EUR / USD made attempts to rise above 1.25 during the European session, but the weak auction results LTRO (129,84 billion versus predicted 170 billion euros), coupled with strong US retail sales resulted in a pair of 1.2380 area. GBP / USD opened at 1.5713 bids, down to 1.5651, completing trades near 1.57. USD / RUB opened bids slight drop at around 54.79, but on the solution of the Bank of Russia to raise the rate by only 1% has grown to a new record at 55.77.

Oil futures initially moved away from the lows of the medium, completely digested pessimistic forecasts of OPEC, but after a brief consolidation decided to return to a minimum. Brent opened trading at $ 64.72 a barrel, up $ 65.35 strengthened, but finished trading at around $ 63.79.

Precious metals continue to be adjusted from the highs reached a few days ago, as the US dollar and US data so far do not give reasons for the growth. Retail sales for November came out better than expected, despite the scattered data on the failed Christmas sales season in the «Black Friday.» As a result, XAU / USD finished trading at around $ 1225.67 per ounce, while silver was maintained slightly above $ 17 at the close.

Forecast for Friday, December 12

Commodities

So, Brent stubbornly moves down, and many representatives of OPEC contribute to this. Saudi Arabia and Iraq, Kuwait joined now by announcing the maximum in the last six years discounts for Asian customers. Thus, all three major oil producer cartel confirmed its willingness to continue to fight for market share. All this creates perfect conditions for the further drop in prices, with up to $ 60 per barrel, we see no strong barriers. Price will obviously fall until the moment when one of the parties still do not break down and give up their «rates». Oil in the game «poker» can last for quite a long time, and it is unclear who first stop bluffing. One thing is clear — in front of the new multi-year lows on Brent.

Stock market

Germany’s DAX was able to gain a foothold on the topic yesterday rather weak auction results LTRO, which only increased the chances that the ECB will go on quantitative easing, and quite soon. This factor may continue to support the index, and therefore, it is possible the resumption of growth in order to at around 10,000 additional catalyst may be the fact that the benchmark is trading near a fairly strong level of support 9800 that may become necessary as a springboard. Today published data on industrial production in the event of lower than expected, can only add fuel to the fire.

Foreign exchange market

USD / RUB celebrates new records to a combination of factors: the price of oil continues to fall, the authorities continue to adhere to the tactics of the «last Chinese warning» and the central bank is not willing to take drastic measures and did not choose the best strategy for the effective implementation of foreign exchange intervention. If so everything will go on, then the couple will be one solution — to continue to grow. In addition, a couple of presses and geopolitical factor: another postponement of the trilateral meeting in Minsk on the conflict in Ukraine, said the unwillingness of the parties to make concessions. For the ruble, this means a long period of sanctions.

Meanwhile, the global currency market is becoming increasingly clear that the market is hungry for correction of the US dollar and no longer wants to buy it, fearing that the next meeting of the FOMC again disappoint restraint in comments regarding the timing of the first rate hike. That is why strong retail sales are not made in the markets of a large splash. Today the dollar to go through another test of strength in the form of data on consumer confidence from the University of Michigan, as well as a report on inflation at the production level (PPI). And the second will have the greatest importance, since the market is very interested in the current price trend: only if a significant increase in the index PPI and CPI talk about the imminent tightening of monetary policy will become a reality. Thus, even in line with expectations data may put pressure on the USD, which for EUR / USD may lead to yet another attempt to consolidate above 1.25.

Твой выбор

Search

The best broker

Link to Us



Review of the world's major financial markets from December 11, 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners