Review of the world’s major financial markets from December 10, 2014

Yesterday OPEC forecasts crippled the entire stock market, as shares fall provoked the energy sector. Only the Hong Kong Hang Seng (HSI) at the end of trading day rose by 0.6%. Britain’s FTSE and Germany’s DAX lost 1%. US stock indexes suffered even greater losses.

Past naiskuchneyshim way in the foreign exchange market, although the Asian session looked livelier. Everyone who wanted to take profits on the US dollar, already do this on Monday and Tuesday, leaving currencies in narrow ranges. USD / JPY made attempts to break through 118.70, but the demand for the dollar is gradually returning to the markets, which led to a couple of 119 at the close. EUR / USD trades conducted within the 40-point range 1,2360-1,24. GBP / USD has weakened slightly on the data on the trade balance, going down to 1.5646, but then managed to recover in the 1.57 area. USD / RUB spent almost the entire day within the 20-point range, only to the end of the trading session, reaching a local maximum at 54.84 sharp drop in oil prices.

Oil futures came under pressure again, this time against the background of the same OPEC forecasts that suggested within their own calculations, that next year the demand for «black gold» will fall to their lowest levels in 12 years the volume. Brent on this story once again began to storm the multi-year lows, costing less than $ 65 per barrel and noting almost 5.5-year low of $ 63.83.

Precious metals came upon a rather strong technical levels that stopped the inertial growth. In addition, to stop the sale of the US dollar contributed to the ongoing consolidation of the mite. As a result, XAU / USD finished trading at around $ 1230 per ounce, while silver was maintained slightly above $ 17 at the close.

Forecast for Thursday, December 11

Commodities

Oil prices resumed their fall from the beginning of the week, and it generated a wave of rumors that the next stopping point will be immediately around $ 40- $ 45 per barrel varieties Brent. In fact, no outcome can not be excluded, since the cost of «black gold» is determined by supply and demand, and if demand from Asia and Europe will continue to fall against the backdrop of increasing production volumes in the US (currently they are at 30-year high) that we may see and the level of $ 30 over time.

About the same thing and OPEC said in their forecasts, which so frightened the market. Demand for crude oil in 2015 was revised to decrease by 280 thousand. Barrels per day due to the slowdown in the global economy. At the same time, the forecast on a proposal from countries not members of the cartel was increased by 120 thousand barrels per day to 1.36 million. Thus, while the prerequisites for the growth of quotations Brent there, and, consequently, any corrective pullback should be used up For a successful point of entry into the market short positions.

Stock market

Today, most stock indexes every chance to continue falling as the market remains under the impression pessimistic forecasts of OPEC, which yesterday led to the collapse of the largest oil companies in the world shares. And it’s not that have been revised downward revision of demand, the reasons for the revision of the matter — the cartel, as well as other global organizations expect a slowdown in the global economy, and, therefore, the reasons for optimism yet. Additional pressure for the US the DJIA and NASDAQ may become published today data on the volume of retail sales. If consumer spending will remain weak, it would call into question the stability of the US recovery, and hence the stability and growth of the corporate sector.

Foreign exchange market

USD / RUB continues to remain under pressure in oil prices, which yesterday took a new leap down. Nevertheless, the ruble had to respond to the minimum mark for Brent within yesterday’s trading session, so that today we can even expect a slight strengthening of the Russian currency at the opening due to the correction of quotations of «black gold».

Nevertheless, the key issue today is the outcome of the meeting of the Bank of Russia, and the expectations of the market currently vary considerably. Most of the investors are confident that the Central Bank will undertake new efforts to tighten monetary policy, but the range of forecasts scale rate increase is quite wide: 0.5% -4.0%. If we recall that at the last meeting of the regulator has already raised borrowing costs by 1.5%, it would be logical to expect that this time he would take a break and will refrain from taking any steps in this direction, to wait for the effect of previous actions. Nevertheless, the situation in the Central Bank presses — after sharp comments Vladimir Putin’s country awaits action, and action must be effective. We remember that previous rate increase to 9.5% had no significant impact on the ruble, ie to measure gave a result, it is necessary either to increase the force of impact (for example, an increase of 4%), or take other measures to manage liquidity (change limits on currency swaps).

Thus, emerges a few scenarios outcome of events:

1. Increased rate of 0.5% — 1.5% (50% probability). The minimum response rate.

2. Increased rates of 2.0% -4.0% (20% chance). The sharp appreciation of the ruble with the probability of first correction to current levels.

3. Constant level of rates, but change the limits on currency swaps or other measures to manage liquidity (probability 20%). Moderate appreciation of the ruble after the initial fall on disappointment over rates.

4. Fixed policy (10% probability). A sharp drop in the ruble against the dollar above 57 on the disappointment of inactivity Bank of Russia.

Now for the USD / JPY. So, after two days of sales of the US dollar, the pair has stabilized and found «a range» for the next week until the Fed meeting on monetary policy. The pair is likely to fluctuate within 118,70-121,00 though today markets might have a chance to move the bottom border with the immediate goal at around 117.30. To do this, we need to see a very weak data on US retail sales. Recall that the US labor market continues to recover at a good pace and that no one is beyond doubt. However, the disappointing sales figures in the «Black Friday» raised fears that despite the revenue growth, the population is not willing to spend enough money, and without that the positive dynamics of the labor market is irrelevant. If retail sales fall, instead of the predicted growth of 0.3%, the dollar will experience a new wave of sales.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from December 10, 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners