Review of the world’s major financial markets from December 1, 2014

Start trading week for the stock markets went bleak, amid news of the decline, the rating of Japan, the weak performance of business activity from China and Germany, as well as the sad result of «Friday sales» in the United States. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) at the end of the day lost 2.2%. Britain’s FTSE was down 0.99%, but the German DAX lost 0.17%, to pick up very close to the 10,000 mark.

Tired of long US weekend traders from Monday to bargain very active, although the fundamental reason for this lack. USD / JPY in the morning is poised for growth in the form of a sudden reduction of the sovereign rating of Japan in connection with questions about the address of the budget deficit. This helped the pair initially get above 119.00, but very quickly the pair reversed on the general weakening of the US dollar and closed in the area of 118.30. EUR / USD initially declined to 1.2420 area under the influence of weak PMI data from Germany (the first time since July 2013 the index went below 50), but the sale of USD due to the unimpressive sales results in the «Black Friday» has returned to the area of 1.2480 euros at the closing. GBP / USD was able to demonstrate an impressive strengthening from 1.5648 to 1.5760 at the opening, thanks to the strong data on UK business. Index rose to 53.5 vs. 53.0. A USD / RUB has once again demonstrated the growth to record highs, noting 53.88, but after the area of 51.60 at the close.

All those who have not had time to react to the results of the meeting of OPEC last week, rushed to do it on Monday morning, Brent has fallen off to a 5-year low of $ 67.52 a barrel. By the close of trading days active yet managed to recover more than $ 70.00, closed in the area of 72.70.

Precious metals were glad fall of the US currency, as well as weak retail sales last Friday in the United States. If this is a sign of a slow recovery of the world’s largest economy, the «flight to quality» may continue. XAU / USD strengthened in the area of one-month high 1221.02 per ounce, rolled to the area at the close of 1210, and XAG / USD was trading around 16.46 to the end of Monday.

Forecast for Tuesday, December 2

Stock market

Shares of Apple (AAPL) yesterday tumbled from historic highs $ 119.4 to $ 111.23 on almost 7%, but quickly fell back to the area of $ 114.6. And like nothing significant has happened to provoke such a massive landslide, with the exception of Morgan Stanley, which has reduced positions in stocks, explaining it was too sharp asset price doubling over the past three years. At the same time were lowered recommendations for the technology sector, which could become a major catalyst for violent profit. However, if you look at the chart, prices have returned to the area only 2-week levels, which looks more like a temporary correction after a long rally. And in the near future, this will mean that the level of $ 117.00 is a significant barrier, which might not be so easy to take.

Nevertheless, the prospects for stocks are very good, and the current lower levels can attract long-term investors. However, it should be taken into account that further upward movement now will be slower, and ahead can be quite strong barriers.

Commodities

The fall of the US dollar, coupled with not very impressive results on retail sales last Friday was a good catalyst for the growth of the price of gold as part of yesterday’s trading, and the fact that the XAU / USD so easily broken through the long-term psychological resistance level of $ 1,200 can talk about that the recovery of an asset may gain traction.

In favor of such dynamics can be not only technical factors, but also signs that the pace of global growth remains rather weak, and central banks will continue to refrain from going to the regime of tightening up until you have verified that the stability of the recovery process. Please note, yesterday was downgraded Japan’s sovereign rating, indexes of business activity in manufacturing and China, and Germany were weaker than expected, and is even in Germany and moved to the area of the recession. American consumption sector, despite the stabilization of the labor market, while also not ready to go to the impressive costs, despite the fact that sales forecasts in the «Black Friday,» said the likelihood of record sales. Instead, the volume decreased by 11% y / y to 50.9 billion, while shops were met by about 6 million customers less than expected.

The immediate goal on the way up for gold could be around $ 1240 as soon as the resistance of $ 1214 will be broken.

Foreign exchange market

Despite the fact that yesterday there were rumors that the correction of USD / RUB 51.60 in the area supported the Bank of Russia, official confirmation of foreign exchange interventions were received. In addition, it is recognized as the corresponding recovery in oil prices could be a sufficient argument in favor of profit-taking on the overbought pair. Moreover, after the close of trading session price for Brent gained a little more than a dollar per barrel, which may already be reflected in the pair at the opening of tenders. It is quite possible «gap» down from the start with the immediate goal at around 49.80.

Apart from the fact that the US dollar remained under pressure, the pair USD / JPY was no reason for the fall, especially after Moody’s downgraded Japan’s sovereign rating to A1 from AA3, citing uncertainty about the program to reduce the national debt. The arguments were expressed doubts about the implementation of the «third boom» Abe aimed at structural reforms. However, all this criticism and doubts do not seem impressed and scared the markets, which may indicate that investors do not fully believe in the gloomy picture, who outlined the rating agency.

It is worth noting that the rating agencies really notorious for their frequent errors in the assessment of the three largest economies of the world. Of the latter, we can remember in 2011, when S & P downgraded the US, and in return received an impressive long-term rally in the US bond market. In fact, there is good reason to be more optimistic about the short-term prospects for Japan, including a sharp drop in energy prices and the depreciation of the national currency, which only benefit the export-oriented economy. Yesterday’s data on capital expenditures in Q3 can say that in the 4th quarter, we can see an impressive recovery of GDP.

Thus, it is possible that the level of 119.00 on the USD / JPY may be a mid-term maximum, after which the correction is not ruled out imposing. The immediate goal on the way down again is a mark of 117.30.

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Review of the world's major financial markets from December 1, 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners