Review of the world’s major financial markets for the week of 15 — 19 December 2014

Last week most of the stock indices closed in the «green», despite the fact that in her early instruments continued downward correction. US Dow Jones and the NASDAQ rose by 2.74% and 2.01%, respectively. The main catalyst for growth is the fact that the results of the last Fed meeting showed that while the controller is not ready to start raising rates. Germany’s DAX rose by 2.65%. On the one hand, support was strong enough statistics from Germany. On the other, the expectations to launch a full-scale program of quantitative easing by the ECB. Asian markets finished the week in different directions Japan’s Nikkei rose 2.92%, while the Hang Seng was down 0.32%.

Precious metals ended the week on a minor note. Gold prices fell by 2.23%. Silver lost 5.8%. In this case, even the fact that the part of the US Federal Reserve in the next few months should not wait to start raising rates, could not provide them with essential support. Precious metals remained under pressure amid rising stock market. Also, do not contribute to the demand for these assets and low inflation.

Brent crude oil at the beginning of the week updated lows, but later stabilized within the range of 58.50 — 63.30 and was even able to work five days to complete a symbolic increase by 0.39%. In general, the fundamental reasons for the growth of quotations nil. OPEC representatives are still, like a mantra repeated that even if prices fall even gold below $ 40 a barrel, they will not cut production. However, it seems that the market is not yet ready to push oil prices below $ 58. Especially because the US seems gradually begin to give up, reducing the number of operating wells.

Leader in volatility in the last week became the Russian ruble. Pair USD / RUB noted the absolute maximum at 78.7557. And it happened after it became known to raise the key rate by the Central Bank of Russia at 6.5% to 17%. However, by the end of the week the ruble was able to recover almost all of the losses and its follow-up fell by only 1.09%. In many respects it was promoted by new measures to stabilize the situation, made the Central Bank, the Russian president’s comments, and simply a technical correction after active sales. Do not forget that oil prices stabilize.

Forecast for the week 22 — 26 December

Stock market

The upcoming work week will be short in connection with the celebration of Christmas. However, the stock market will have reasons to worry enough, although it is possible that, in general, they continued to grow, which traditionally takes place in December. Especially because, at least until April 2015 the Fed will keep rates low, which will also maintain stocks. If you go back to the events of the coming week, the attention is paid to the data on orders for durable goods in the United States and a report on housing sales in the primary market, published on Tuesday. Strong statistics can push indexes up to highs reached earlier. Dow Jones is against this background may try to return to the area of ​​the resistance level 17976. Nasdaq after breaking 4297.52 probably target the rise to the level of 4347.93. As a catalyst for growth and can become final GDP data for the 3rd quarter, but only on condition that the figure will be revised to increase. As always, do not rule out the weekly data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits, given that the US Federal Reserve calls the labor market among the factors to be taken into account when making decisions on monetary policy. The German DAX not receive catalysts in the form of significant makroekonomchieskih reports. It is possible that on the eve of a long weekend instrument comes under pressure on profit taking in anticipation of a long weekend. As part of the rollback, he can return to the district-level support 9596.1. Signs of further decline in price pressures in Japan can support Asian markets, as provoke increased expectations of new stimulus from the Bank of Japan. Hong Kong HSI against this background may try to develop growth after Nikkey. The primary goal of the movement Hang Seng may be a mark 23626.

Commodities

Precious metals can be influenced by news from the US. Positive macroeconomic statistics from the United States will strengthen expectations that the Fed really can go to the first rate hike in April next year. And this is clearly not going to use tools that do not generate interest income. Also do not forget that global inflation is low, which reduces the interest in gold and silver as a hedge inflation risks. All this can exert pressure on the metal. Gold may return to 1,180.30. Silver has a chance to sink to 15.702 with the further aim to 15.324 in the event of a breakthrough. The only thing that can now support the precious metals — an increase of geopolitical tensions. December 20 it became known that the US expanded sanctions against Russia, which could answer them.

Quotes of Brent crude stabilized. But to say that they have started a landslide upward correction will only be possible if they gain a foothold above $ 65 per barrel. In general, some chance to continue to grow there. According to the results of last week to reduce the number of operating wells in the United States continued. And it can be perceived by the market as a positive signal. Therefore, the chances of a breakthrough level of 63.30 is, unless, of course, does not make any new claims on the part of OPEC to reduce prices.

Foreign exchange market

News about new sanctions against Russia from the United States may be early in the week to put pressure on the ruble. Of course, one should not expect an equally strong attenuation as before because the support of the Russian currency and are now the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank. In addition, Russia begins the tax period, which causes an increase in demand for ruble liquidity. With a degree of optimism ruble may perceive and news about the stabilization of oil prices. However, on Monday the movement of the pair USD / RUB 64.1790 to the area level should not be ruled out. Although, as soon as the situation with sanctions will be played for the ruble, by virtue of the above mentioned factors can try again to recover their losses.

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Review of the world's major financial markets for the week of 15 - 19 December 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners