Review of the world’s major financial markets for the week 26 — 30 January 2015

Most of last week’s stock indices showed restrained dynamics largely influenced by ambiguous comments after the announcement of the Fed’s monetary policy decisions. However, the publication of data on US growth in the 4th quarter brought about changes. In Q4 2014 the US GDP grew by only 2.6% versus 5.0% in the third. As a result, most of the tools completed the week «in the red». The most impressive weakening American benchmarks showed. For the week Dow Jones and the NASDAQ lost 2.95% and 3.07%, respectively. In the red and Hong Kong ended the week index HSI, which lost 1.33%. The German DAX is not yet cause for further growth, so the week ends with a symbolic increase of 0.25%. Nikkei most of the week trying to grow, but statistics from the US has disappointed him. As a result, he added just 0.37%.

Precious metals most of the week remained under pressure. To a large extent this trend was caused by technical factors. After a fairly long growth correction was quite natural. In addition, moderate pressure on assets had comments made by US Federal Reserve that the current situation does not completely rule out the probability of a rate hike. Although, as noted by the regulator, the rush into these may not be. Nevertheless, to complete the week precious metals could be rehabilitated. As a result, gold is losing just 0.72%, and more volatile silver prices fell by 5.63%.

Brent crude oil most of the week showed restrained dynamics, keeping within the range. But on the last working day of the week frankly pleased, ending trading at 52.17 dollars per barrel, and in an instant quotes black gold reaches 53.06. As a result, one week with the result completes oil + 7.19%. Support came from two sides. Firstly, it was reported that the State Commission of Development and Reform of China impute refiners country support oil reserves in size, allowing to provide stable operation for 15 days. Secondly, according to Baker Hughes’ number of working rigs continued to decline. Their number decreased to 1543 (minimum level in nearly 5 years) from the previous value of 1633.

In the currency market USD / RUB resumed growth. For a week the ruble fell by 10.1%. The pressure on the Russian currency is still reported from several sides. This report downgrade Russia to «junk» level agency S & P. The continuing geopolitical tensions. In addition, there were rumors about the expansion of EU sanctions against Russia. But the greatest influence on the couple had an unexpected decision Central Bank of Russia to reduce its key interest rate by 2% from the level of 17% to 15%. Against the decision of the regulator quotes reaches 71.1824, on which completion of the day recovered to 69.6726.

Forecast 2 — February 6

Stock market

The first week of the month is traditionally full of various macroeconomic reports. In particular, in the US we will follow up data on business activity in the manufacturing sector and the service sector, as well as a key report on the labor market. Of course, evidence of a slowdown in the US economy, obtained earlier, may have moderate pressure on US stock indexes. But, if you look, it is possible that the low level of inflation in the country, coupled with signs of insufficiently rapid economic growth could well cause increased expectations that the Fed still change its rhetoric and will not rush to raise your bid. In the expectation preserve soft monetary policy Dow Jones and Nasdaq may well resume growth. Moreover, that while a large number of grounds to speak about a possible reversal of the upward trend, no. Conversely, relatively low current levels can be attractive entry points to a long gap. In particular, the Dow Jones 17083 level appears to be quite a strong level of support and pushed away from him, quotations may aim for growth to around 17692. For Nasdaq strong support seems to mark 4083.4, with rebound up from which he can buy with a target at 4245, 85. The German DAX index is in the region of the maximum technically can develop a downward correction, especially under the influence of a weak European statistics (in particular, attention should be paid to the final data on the index of business activity in the industrial sector in Germany). The purpose of correction may be the level of 10,300, which can be a good point to enter long positions with the aim at around 11,000, as against the decision of the ECB, adopted on 22 January growth potential index is large enough. Asian indices provided that the data published on Monday by the index of business activity in the industrial sector in China reflect the continued cooling in the sector in the short term may continue to fall. However, in the medium term still look attractive enough to buy. Hong Kong HSI index may revert to the level of 24352, which is not excluded from the game and another attempt to pass the resistance at 25000. Nikkey may be interesting for shopping in the level of 17350 to 18080 in order to.

Commodities

Gold and silver still look quite stable. Moreover, the correction of last week makes interesting tools for shopping. High geopolitical tensions and instability in the global economy will continue to maintain a high demand for safe assets. In addition, recent data from the US economic growth rate will clearly contribute to the growth expectations that the Fed still refrain from raising rates in the first half. During the week of the new precious metals also will be watching to statistics from the United States and any adverse changes in the indices will only strengthen the demand for gold and silver. Accordingly, the immediate goals for the XAU / USD may be a mark 1300 on XAG / USD — 18,000.

Quotes of Brent crude on Friday proved that there is potential for growth. Only a significant catalyst. Quotes not just grew up, they finished the week above the level of 50.00, which is for 3 weeks restrain growth. Now, if you see evidence that OPEC again lower prices for consumers or not the market will alarm reports that oil production hit record again with a relatively low demand, it is possible that the asset will continue to gradually move to the level of 54, $ 70 per barrel. Especially because the market remembers that recently said OPEC Secretary General Ali al-Badri. He noted that the decline in investment in the industry could trigger an increase in prices to $ 200 per barrel in the long term. In addition, we can safely say that the black gold has more than made up «recoup» oversupply of about 2 million barrels while consuming 93 million a day. A reduction in the number of operating wells in the United States gives reason to believe that an imbalance of supply and demand soon will still be offset. Thus, there is a chance that oil prices still «bottomed» in front of the black gold, at least, long-term upward correction.

Foreign exchange market

Pair USD / RUB reached levels not seen since the second half of December 2014. Ruble now accounts easy. Pressure on him comes from several sides and it is probable that in the foreseeable future, the situation has not changed. The situation in Ukraine remains extremely tense, which causes an increase in negative rhetoric on the part of Western countries towards Russia. The probability of renewal of existing sanctions and possibly their extension continues the sword of Damocles hanging over the economy and the national currency of the Russian Federation. And adds a negative decision by the Russian regulator to lower the key rate. In the context of high inflation and the falling ruble it can only increase the pressure. Do not forget that in February, Russian companies will have to repay about $ 15 billion on foreign loans and it also adds optimism about the prospects for the ruble. Therefore, the likelihood of further weakening of the ruble is high enough. Provided break of 71.4790 pair USD / RUB can target the growth to 73.00. However, the beginning of the week the ruble may hold on an optimistic note, reacting to a sharp rise in oil quotations, which occurred already after the Russian currency trades were completed. Therefore, on Monday it is possible restoration of the ruble in the level of 68.70 — 68.20. But while maintaining the effect of the above mentioned negative factors USD / RUB may subsequently return to modest growth.

Next week attention to itself can attract speaker pair AUD / USD. On Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia announces decision on monetary policy. Rumors that the regulator can go to reduce the rate went a long time. In light of recent events, when a number of central banks decided on additional mitigation (including the Bank of Canada), it is possible that their example could be followed by the RBA, which is traditionally a high level of dissatisfaction evinces the national currency, which, I must say, has dropped to 4, 5-year low. However, if the Australian regulator decides to take such a step, the Aussie may continue to decline to a level of 0.7580 and further to 0.74.

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Review of the world's major financial markets for the week 26 - 30 January 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners