Review of the world’s major financial markets for the week 22 — 26 December 2014

Last week was short, but it did not prevent the stock indices to develop traditional «Christmas rally». All of them finished the week in the «green». US Dow Jones and the NASDAQ rose by 1.24% and 0.76%, respectively. In this case, the maximum Dow updated. The main catalyst for the growth were the final data on US GDP for the 3rd quarter, which were revised to increase to 5%, which strengthened the faith in the strength of the economy. The German DAX, despite the fact that trading on it were only on Monday and Tuesday was able to recover losses on Friday and showed an increase of 1.18%. Asian indexes also rose. Japan’s Nikkei added 1.27%, while the Hang Seng rose by 1.09%.

Precious metals during the week showed mixed trends. In its first half, they were down under the influence of expectations that the US Federal Reserve can go on raising rates sooner than expected. In such market concerns persuaded the data in terms of growth of the US economy, and a weekly report on applications for unemployment benefits (their number dropped to 280 thousand. With an expected growth to 291 thousand.). However, on Friday to «thin market» precious metals were able to recover most of the losses. As a result, gold ended the week with a symbolic plus 0.02%, silver with the same symbolic minus (-0.06%).

Brent, the least and hold within the range of 58.50 — 63.30, but finished the week close to its bottom. By the close on Friday (19 December), asset prices have fallen by 4.56%. The market reacts rather reserved for reasons that could contribute to the growth of quotations of the black gold. In particular, even information that after the attacks of Islamists in Libya production volume decreased by 350 thousand. Barrels per day, was ignored. Apparently too strong fears that global demand will fall even faster.

Last week, the pair USD / RUB again quite pleased with active movements, a decrease of 9.02%. Support the ruble received by several factors. That and the fact that the price of oil until no longer updated lows. And the tax period when the demand for domestic currency traditionally grows. Also quite serious support the ruble could get on the background of the agreements that have been achieved in recent years with major exporters. According to unconfirmed reports, the volume of currency sales per day is $ 1 billion, and participate in the five companies of the gas, oil and diamond industries.

Forecast for the week December 29 — January 2

Stock market

The upcoming work week will also be a short on the occasion of the New Year. But in spite of this a few reports that can attract the attention of investors will be published. In general, for US indices situation is quite favorable. The US economy takes quite optimistic signals. Positive market will reap and from data on consumer confidence (Tuesday, 30 December), as well as from the report on business activity in the industrial sector in the US (although he does not play such a significant role in the economy, as services). Although before the weekend still do not completely exclude the possibility of a downward correction, especially if we take into account that the Dow Jones updated the maximum and was even able to finish last week above the level of 18000. The primary purpose of the rollback can be a mark 17692. Nasdaq is close to the previously highs. And, most likely, in anticipation of the holidays to overcome this level it will not succeed. Therefore also not be ruled out a rollback in the level of 4245.85. The German DAX at the beginning of the week can be influenced by the outcome of the third round of presidential elections in Greece. If a country wins the movement opposing the austerity measures, it would call into question the possibility of the ECB to implement a program of buying up assets in 2015. It will be important for the dynamics of the index. If in the third round will not be the requisite number of votes, the European stock market will be under pressure. In addition, attention should be paid on Friday, the final data on the index of business activity in the industrial sector of the euro zone and Germany. Asian indices can be influenced by data on the index of business activity in the industrial sector in China. Signs of further cooling can strengthen expectations of new stimulus measures from the People’s Bank of China. Against this background, Hong Kong HSI may try to develop a growth in the level of 23626 with the further aim to 24013 in the event of a breakthrough. Nikkey returns to the maximum detected earlier in December and with the absence of catalysts can develop a rollback to the level of 17200, which is able to be a good point of entry for the purchase, as the Japanese government and the central bank is likely to continue to stimulate the economy.

Commodities

Precious metals may be at the beginning of the week to continue the upward movement due to the ongoing in anticipation of holidays close positions. Although it is possible that their adjustments and make the American statistics, all the more so in a «thin market» may be quite sharp movements. Strong US data once again returned to the focus of the market expectations that the Fed will raise rates as early as April of this year, and it may put pressure on the gold and silver that do not generate interest income. Gold may return to 1,175.07. Silver has a chance to sink to 15.847 and, further, to 15.702. However, the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East remains quite tense and against this background that a significant drop in precious metals, which are a safe haven should not wait. On the contrary, in the case of escalation of the conflict in one of the problematic regions, they may experience relatively strong demand.

Quotes of Brent crude held until within the previously established range. We remain of the view that talking about the beginning of a confident upward correction will only be possible if they gain a foothold above $ 65 per barrel. Although, if you look at the latest data on commercial stocks in the US, which showed an increase, wait for rise in prices for oil is not necessary. Moreover, that global demand may remain low. But at the same time, tensions in the Middle East may still deter fall. Therefore, it is likely that prices still continue to consolidate in the range of 58.50 — 63.30.

Foreign exchange market

Already at the end of last week the ruble again showed some weakening against the dollar. This was partly due to the completion of the tax period, as well as the return of oil prices in the area of ​​local minima. Geopolitical situation and the price of oil will continue to be risk factors for the Russian currency. Yet while the potential to further reduce the pair USD / RUB is. Substantive support to the ruble may receive from the continued sales of foreign exchange earnings largest exporters. Also, do not forget about the approaching Christmas holidays in Russia. In anticipation of a long weekend so most investors are likely to prefer not to leave open positions in risky assets such as the Russian ruble. Therefore, the profit can also put pressure on the USD / RUB. In light of this, it is possible movement of the pair in the level of support 50.00.

Твой выбор

Search

The best broker

Link to Us



Review of the world's major financial markets for the week 22 - 26 December 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners