Review of the world’s major financial markets for the week 19 — 23 January 2015

Last week, stocks have experienced a surge of optimism. Without exception, benchmarks have completed it in the «green», supported by the ECB’s decision to launch a full-scale program of quantitative easing, the size of which even exceeded expectations. An increase of 3.39% showed the German DAX, which, moreover, updated high at 10,709.0. Rose and US index, which received additional support from the corporate reporting. In particular, strong enough reports submitted Starbucks and General Electric. Dow Jones (YM) and NASDAQ (NQ) for the week added 0.91% and 3.21%, respectively. A modest increase in the first due to the fact that the shares of the oil and gas sector in the current environment may show a negative trend. Hong Kong HSI rose 2.85%. Nikkei during the week could be strengthened by 1.84%.

Precious metals have demonstrated one more week of growth. Gold price rose by 1.42%. Silver is also strengthened. The increase was 3.23%. Support for precious metals continue to receive on the background of the continuing geopolitical tensions. In addition, the investment demand for gold is supported by concerns about the global economic outlook. The market has not forgotten that the IMF has lowered forecasts for global economic growth for the current year to 3.5%. In such circumstances, the precious metals are the almost the only island of stability.

Brent oil for a week did not show sharp fluctuations. Quotes assets held within the range established earlier. However, while all attempts to develop upward correction restrained level of 50 dollars per barrel. As a result, black gold week terminates with the result of -2.56%. Pressure on oil prices is not strong enough data on the state of the Chinese economy. This has raised fears that the growth of consumption in China will slow (although in December, China increased its volume of purchases by 20%). Also, do not add optimism and information that the receiver of the deceased King of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz, intends to continue the policy of squeezing from the market producers shale.

In the currency market USD / RUB yet made a downward correction. Quotes were down 2% for the week. Received moderate support the ruble against the backdrop of the approximation of large tax payments, to be held on January 26, which led to increased demand for the Russian currency. An additional factor that allowed the ruble appreciated, and has become a relative stabilization of oil prices. Significant weakening in response to the ECB’s decision to launch a program of quantitative easing has demonstrated pair EUR / USD. Quotes Europeans currency lost 3.1%, noting at least at the level of 1.1113.

Forecast for the week 26 — 30 January

Stock market

We are waiting for another quite interesting week. Firstly, in the Sunday, January 25 elections to the Greek Parliament. The likelihood is high that the Radical Party will win Syriza. Such an outcome does not exclude the probability of a Greek exit from the eurozone. We can not say that this will be a key factor influencing the German index DAX. Yet such an outcome increases the chances of a downward correction in the level of 10,300, which may be a good point to enter long positions with a view at the level of 10,800, as against the decision of the ECB, adopted on 22 January growth potential index is large enough. In addition, attention should be paid and data on the index of business optimism in Germany by IFO on Monday and report on the labor market on Thursday. Impact performance is likely to be limited. Although, if the numbers come out strong, benchmark may receive additional support. US indexes undoubtedly be glad to publish the Fed’s decision on monetary policy. At this meeting, the changes in it are not waiting. But the market is still interested in the question of possible dates to start raising rates US regulators. Even the slightest hint of what is going to happen a little later than expected, may accelerate the growth of Dow Jones (the purpose of which may be the level of 17976) and the Nasdaq, which can take aim at a return to the level of 4347.50. In addition to the Fed’s decision of US news is to provide a report on orders for durable goods, as well as data on the rate of growth of the American economy in the 4th quarter. And if the GDP report will reflect their slowdown, indexes at the end of the week can roll back. Asian indices in the medium term still look attractive enough to buy. Especially because after the decision EBTS of quantitative easing is unlikely to China and Japan will long stick to stable monetary policy amid signs of a slowdown in the economy of China and the recession in Japan. Hong Kong HSI index may target the movement in the level of resistance 25185, a breakthrough which will pave the way to 26475. Nikkey may be interesting for shopping in the level of 17220 to 17570 with the aim and, further, 18080.

January 27 will publish a quarterly report the company Apple (AAPL). It is expected that at the end of the quarter the company announced another increase in revenue. The indicator can be in the range of $ 63-66 billion. In this case, we can talk about the fact that the net profit will exceed $ 10 billion. Of course, that could have a strong record of shares of additional support, aiming paper on the growth in the level of 119.66 (maximum of 25 November) after the break above $ 114.70.

Commodities

Gold and silver still look quite stable. High geopolitical tensions and instability of the global economy can maintain a sufficiently high demand for safe assets. Especially in recent years by some investment banks, there are rumors that they are expecting a new wave of global crisis in the second half of 2015 In addition, the central banks of China and Russia continue to buy gold in reserves (CBR bought in December 18.7 tons of gold). Of course, if the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday will make it clear that it still does not exclude the possibility of changes in rates in a big way already at the April meeting, short-term correction of precious metals is possible because they do not interest income. But it is doubtful whether the motion will be long, and the rollback can be seen as a good point to enter long positions. The immediate objectives can be 1321.16 levels of gold and 18,800 of silver.

Quotes of oil Brent, it seems, is still «find the bottom.» Active for 2 weeks does not update the lows and shows relative stability, keeping within the range. At the moment, we can assume that a significant reduction we will not see, unless, of course, to form a support for the breakthrough appears fundamental bases. Of course, such a factor as a rather high supply of black gold remains. However, if you look, the excess supply in the market, which was formed at the expense of coming to him shale projects in comparison with the global consumption is not so great. At the moment he is about 2 million barrels while consuming 93 million a day. Moreover, recent data reveal a decrease wells under development (209 units during the previous six weeks). It was the most significant decline ever recorded by the company Baker Hughes leads to July 1987. In addition, there were also messages from the Australian giant BHP, that he intends to close 40% of its offshore wells in the United States by the end of the financial year. Thus, there is a chance for a correction in the level of 52.00. Although any hints of continued price war OPEC can change everything.

Foreign exchange market

Tax period in Russia is coming to an end and that means that the demand for ruble liquidity may be reduced. Consequently, there is a possibility that the ruble will resume weakening against the dollar. Especially because the market is still waiting for the ad agency S & P rating of Russia. And still it is possible that he will be downgraded to «junk» level. The situation in Ukraine is alarming, and high geopolitical risks — not what you need right now the Russian currency. Recently, however, the pair USD / RUB is very sensitive to the dynamics of oil prices. And if the quotes black gold is expected to remain stable or develop upward correction, the Russian currency could win back some losses. Also, do not exclude from the field of view of the fact that the Bank of Russia on January 26 auctions will begin with a limit of $ 1 billion lending banks in dollars bail of foreign currency loans. And it may have some support ruble. In favor of the Russian currency may make and preserve Russian Central Bank key rate at 17% at the end of the meeting, which will take place on 30 January. While considering the contradictory potential factors influence a pretty strong chance that the pair USD / RUB will continue to show mixed trends within the range of 62.6037 — 66.4661.

EUR / USD may continue to decline, targeting the 1.0970 level. In one hand, a couple of keeping the pressure on the ECB’s decision. On the other hand, are a risk factor for the outcome of elections in Greece. In case of a victory party Syriza, the market will be concerns about the integrity of the monetary unit. And in the short term it can only increase the pressure on the euro.

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Review of the world's major financial markets for the week 19 - 23 January 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners