Review of the world’s major financial markets for the week 16 — 20 February 2015

One of the most important events of the week for all members of the CIS countries was the progress in resolving the situation in the Donbas. Stabilization of the situation in the area Debaltseve and subsequent telephone conversations in the «Norman format» say that the last obstacles to the implementation of the «Minsk agreements» are eliminated. USD / RUB at the end of the week lost another 1.5%, and all this against the background of the negative dynamics of Brent, which slipped by the same 1.5%. On oil prices this time adversely affected the news about the new record for the commercial stocks in the United States. In addition, the only published data from Baker Hughes showed a reduction in the number of working restrained oil wells in the United States — a figure dropped to 1019.

In addition, the market did not cease to digest the history of Greece, which did not come to a close before the end of the week. Mostly upset because of this only a couple EUR / USD — from the opening level of 1.1396 the pair fell to a minimum 1.1278. But the German DAX behaved almost neutral, although it was able to complete a week in a small plus.

Metals market experienced sales and strengthening of the US dollar and expectations of falling demand due to the New Year in China. In addition, the US stock market new record — NASDAQ reached 4424.75, and Dow Jones closed at neutrality.

Economic data:

  • Eurogroup finance ministers meeting on the extension of the program to save Greece.
  • UK: January CPI -0.9% m / m and 0.3% y / y vs. -0.8% m / m and 0.3% y / y.
  • Minutes of the last meeting of the Operations Committee on the Federal Open Market (FOMC).
  • USA: change of commercial oil reserves for the week of February 13 against 7.716 million barrels. Forecast 3,233,000 barrels.

Forecast for the week 23 — 27 February

Foreign exchange market

Pair USD / RUB traditionally within the next week will focus on the development of the situation in the energy market and on the political front, but not limited to the stage is another major factor — the activity of the exporters and the Ministry of Finance of Russia. At the moment, after the stabilization of the situation in the area Debaltseve, the main stage in the implementation of the agreements will be Minsk withdrawal of military equipment from the line of contact. If the clauses of the agreement will be implemented in stages, it will support the position of the ruble.

In addition, an important factor is the dynamics of Brent — oil made attempts to leave less than 60 dollars. / Bbl., But investors have returned several times quotes back. This may indirectly serve to confirm «find the bottom,» and direct catalyst for the purchase of assets are data Baker Hughes, confirming the reduction of working rigs.

And another important point: the tax period in full swing, and take into account the shortened week, you can expect a burst of activity exporters on Tuesday. In addition, the Ministry of Finance announced plans to convert the Reserve Fund in the amount of $ 8 billion to cover the budget deficit. It is unknown when it will happen, but it is quite likely that in the coming week. Thus, it is likely, if all the above favorable conditions, see below 60.00 ruble further aim at around 58.60.

Commodities

Quotes of Brent crude is still teetering above $ 60. / Bbl., But after attempting to break lower is the probability of repeat traffic to the area of ​​57.80 under the influence of data on commercial oil stocks. In fact, it turns out that the asset is now living under the influence of two economic reports (apart from geopolitical risks): data on commercial oil stocks in the United States (usually located on Wednesdays) and report Baker Hughes (out Friday night). It turns out the first half of the week oil waits for data to increase the amount of energy storage in the US and this fall, and then the second half is growing in anticipation of new news on the reduction of working wells in the United States. Thus, Brent during the coming week can be traded within the same range of 57.80 — 62.50 and only a break through one of the boundaries will be able to confirm a clear medium-term direction of the asset.

Gold and silver are consolidated near the bottom of the long-term range. Minutes of FOMC have doubts about the imminent rate hike, which supported the short-term interest in the precious metals. However, the New Year according to the lunar calendar sparked a wave of concerns about the decline in demand for assets from one of the largest consumers in this market — from China. Once fears subside, and the market will be new catalysts for the flight to risk-free assets, precious metals can demonstrate a sharp jump upward. Such catalyst may be an increase in geopolitical tensions in Ukraine or in the Middle East, or the weak economic data from the major economies of the world. On the coming week we will see a series of reports on the GDP for the fourth quarter and inflation. For XAU / USD in this case it is possible to return to the area can be expected to return to the area of ​​$ 1,244 per ounce, and in XAG / USD — to $ 17.40.

Stock market

The coming week will bring a series of reports on the rate of growth in the major economies of the world, coupled with data on inflation. The greatest interest will be the indicators of price pressures, as it is guided by the central banks of him when making decisions on monetary policy.

In the case of the United States any report to date will be considered very carefully, because the protocol of the last FOMC meeting has sown doubts about the timing of the Fed’s rate hike. If the data disappointed investors, this could be the reason for odinm further growth indices. Thus, the Dow Jones has all the chances to gain a foothold is still above 1800 and update the record highs above 18100 for Nasdaq can expect strengthening of above $ 4500.

Germany’s DAX is still configured to update the record above 11,200, but the uncertainty with Greece limits the upward movement at this stage. However, any chance korrektsiya- enter at attractive levels and to have time to catch a longer growth benchmark, which will help to ultrasoft monetary policy of the ECB. On the coming week will be the dominate with Greece, which still needs to be solved, because until 28 February (date of expiry of the aid program) a few days left. But above all it is worth paying for, and data on GDP and inflation. While the former will belong to the past period and are unlikely to cause concern, the latter can confirm deflationary pressures and hint at the possibility of additional incentives that will only support the demand for DAX.

Hong Kong HSI index on the lack of economic events and the approaching New Year according to the lunar calendar may be followed by a general trend or lock yourself in narrow ranges close to the current level of 24700. But the Nikkei (NKD) is worthy of special attention. Last week, the benchmark finally broke the barrier of 18,000 and reached 18400. It is likely that the growth potential is not exhausted, especially considering the impressive growth in exports caused by the devaluation of the national currency. Recall that about 40% of the components Nikkei up just tech stocks, export-oriented, so further depreciation of the yen will stimulate the growth of the index. The next target may be a mark 18490, but given a few days an impressive growth of the index, it makes sense to wait for the correction, and only then open a position to buy.

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Review of the world's major financial markets for the week 16 - 20 February 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners