Review of the world’s major financial markets for the week 12 — 16 January 2015

Rounding out the week, despite the poor economic calendar, still managed to surprise the unexpected decision of the National Bank of Switzerland to abolish binding franc to the euro at 1.2000 and lowering rates. In its decision the SNB almost convince the market that the ECB should wait for the launch of quantitative easing in the near future. Such expectations most favorable impact on the dynamics of the German DAX, which is updated up to the level of 10313.5 and the week showed an increase of 6.3%. The US market is not pleased. Launched corporate reporting season gave more reasons for optimism and only published in the Friday data on the consumer price index in the US, which reflected the decline in price pressures on a monthly basis, the indices allowed to partially recover losses. US Dow Jones and NASDAQ for the week fell by 1.25% and 1.69%, respectively. Hong Kong HSI rose 1.16%. Nikkei during the week showed a very restrained dynamics, entrenched by 0.88%.

Precious metals strengthened most of the week. Gold showed an increase of 4.49%. Silver is also strengthened. The increase was 7.66%. Earlier this week, precious metals received support under the influence of growing geopolitical tensions and quite gloomy forecasts about the prospects for global economic growth. And after the SNB announcement of its decision, they only accelerated growth, as it has provoked the flight from risky assets, which increased the demand for «safe-haven assets.»

Brent oil again updated lows. Quotes asset level reached 46.39, from which were still able to roll back to the end of the week in the area of ​​the mark of 50.00. To a large extent the movement was due to technical factors. The market took a relatively quiet news that according to the latest estimates of the OPEC cartel demand for products in 2015 will amount to 28.8 million. Barrels per day, while in the framework of quotas is planned to produce 30.2 million. Also, develop a correction did not prevent and data from the US Energy Information Agency. According to the results of the previous week was recorded output growth in the United States to 9.19 million. Barrels, the highest level since January 1983. Commercial reserves in underground storage increased by 5.7 million. Barrels and reached 387.8 million.

In the currency market USD / RUB again showed an increase of 5.28%. Quite restrained weakening of the ruble caused by several factors. First, of course, is the stabilization of oil prices. Secondly, personnel changes in the Bank of Russia. Nevertheless, the market could not ignore completely any failure of negotiations, «Norman Quartet» on the subject of Ukraine, nor the fact downgrade Roscii, which is now on the verge of «junk» level, the agency Fitch. And, of course, in the light of the SNB can not completely ignore the dynamics of couples with the Swiss franc. Literally within hours quotation USD / CHF and EUR / CHF showed a collapse in the 25 — 30%. Of course, much of this movement was pretty quick to win. But in general, at the end of a couple weeks losing 15.53% and 17.47%, respectively.

Forecast for the week 19 — 23 January

Stock market

The coming week promises to be interesting from the point of view of the planned to the publication of macroeconomic statistics. There is no doubt that its key event will be the publication of the ECB’s monetary policy on January 22. The market expects that the European regulator has announced the launch of a full program of quantitative easing. If this really happens, stocks may show growth. For the purpose of Dow Jones may be the level of 17823. Nasdaq may return to the level of 4245.85. Especially because the whole attitude in relation to the US market remains positive. American news is to provide reports on building permits issued and the number of housing starts, which allow to assess the prospects of the economy. Strong figures will be another confirmation of strong recovery in the US. German DAX has a chance to continue to grow, aiming at achieving new highs on the condition that the ECB from the words and promises will go to actions aimed at stimulating the European economy. The aim of the movement can be a mark of 10,500, after a previously reached maximum at 10,313.5. In addition to the ECB’s decision the market will take into account data on the index of sentiment in the business environment of the Institute of German ZEW (although the reaction to the data may be delayed due to the expectations of the ECB), as well as preliminary data on the index of business activity in the industrial and service sectors in Germany and the eurozone. Asian indices in the medium term still look attractive enough to buy. Next week they can be influenced by the data in terms of growth of China’s economy in Q4, industrial production and the index of business activity in the industrial sector. Signs of a further slowdown in the economy of China in the short term can trigger decrease in the indices, but this will only increase the expectations of new stimulus by the Central Bank of China. Hong Kong HSI index after a rollback to the mark 23626 may resume growth and retest the resistance at 24352, a breakthrough that would open the way up to 25185. Nikkey may also experience optimism, if after a meeting of the Bank of Japan will become clear willingness regulator to new incentives if necessary. The purpose of the growth can be a mark 17570 and further, 18080.

Commodities

Precious metals, which received additional impetus for growth in the form of unexpected decision of the National Bank of Switzerland, have a chance to continue to grow, and in the coming week as the market in such circumstances is clearly not inclined to additional risk. Also do not forget about the geopolitical situation, which remains quite tense, which also contributes to increased demand for safe haven. Although a risk factor for gold and silver in the coming week may be a decision of the ECB’s monetary policy. In recent years, the market further strengthens the idea that the European regulator will launch a full-scale quantitative easing program by 22 January, which, undoubtedly, will benefit the stock market. And it could again provoke a redistribution of capital in its favor. However, the chances of continued growth in precious metals and have periods of correction can be seen as a good point to enter the «Long». Gold may target the traffic level in the area of ​​1287.00, and further to 1300 if it is a breakthrough. Silver after breaking above $ 17.803 may continue to move to the level of 18,500.

Quotes of oil Brent, updating at least yet stabilized and even attempted to develop upward correction. But in general, the situation on the market of black gold is very difficult and yet no fundamental reason why there was a change to the downward trend is not. On the contrary, we can assume that after the consolidation of assets resumed its decline, and any of its rise will attract sellers looking for the most interesting point of entry. Indeed, until the reasons for the decline of quotations more than enough. The proposal is still significantly exceeds demand. According to OPEC demand for its oil to fall to its lowest level in 12 years — 28.8 million barrels per day. At the same time, production is near multi-year highs, and while none of the countries are not ready to reduce its volume, trying to keep their market share. Although, according to representatives of the OPEC countries in the current year are not included in the cartel will still increase the volume of hydrocarbon production at a slower pace. Thus, one of the immediate goals is to support the level of 45.00, a breakthrough that will pave the way further down to around $ 40 per barrel.

Foreign exchange market

Recently ruble enough sensitive to the dynamics of oil. Namely the fact that the quotes black gold stabilized to prevent a significant weakening of the Russian currency. Next week the pair USD / RUB may even try to develop a downward correction in the level of 60.9030. Some support the Russian currency can get and from exporters, which are slightly intensify currency sales for the upcoming tax payments. Although this factor will have a very limited and short-term impact. Especially because the market is still waiting for a decision S & P’s rating of Russia. There is a 50% probability that it will be downgraded to «junk» level, and it may negate all the positive aspects. In addition, remains tense and the situation in Ukraine, which also helps to strengthen the ruble. Thus, in the coming week the pair can be kept within the range of 60.9030 — 66.4661.

EUR / USD may continue to decline, targeting the 1.1375 level. Pressure on the pair will have expectations that the ECB will announce the January 22 launch of the quantitative easing program. Such expectations have only intensified after the end of the week the final data on consumer price inflation in the euro area confirmed its decline to -0.2%. Although it is possible that in the background of the decision of the Central Bank euro could start a short-term growth under the influence of profit-taking.

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Review of the world's major financial markets for the week 12 - 16 January 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners