Overview of the world’s major financial markets from November 26, 2014

Stock markets yesterday showed mixed trends, each responding to the economic data of the region. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) at the end of the day rooted by an impressive 1.31%. Britain’s FTSE lost about 0.03%, but the German DAX pulled by another 0.55%. Meanwhile, NASDAQ was able to rise by 0.4% in the first half of the trading session and the DJIA adhered to a neutral position.

In the currency market AUD / USD once again set the tone for trading, falls below 0.85 for the first time since July 2010, mainly under pressure from technical factors — the pair broke the 200-day moving average. However, the closure of the Aussie still managed to recover in the area at the close of 0.8540. USD / JPY drifted down all day, going down to the area of 117.70 at the close. EUR / USD came under pressure amid Vitor Constancio speech from the ECB, saying that QE may be launched in Q1 2015. This sent the pair to a local minimum of 1.2443, but the end of trading the pair managed to recover above 1.25 is rather weak US reports. GBP / USD, despite the constant level of GDP, could add to the dynamics of the cross EUR / GBP and the weak US reports, reaching a 2-week high of 1.5805. Meanwhile, USD / RUB opened bids «gap» up and went towards the 9-day high at 47.38 under the influence of a negative outlook on the results of the OPEC meeting in Vienna.

A new wave of rumors on the subject intentions OPEC has put pressure on the oil market. Suspicions about the fact that the cartel did not dare to decline in production led to Brent 12-day low at $ 77.29 per barrel, and the pair pulled back to the area of 77.60 at the close.

Precious metals left in narrow ranges, finding no serious reasons for the breakdown of the next technical levels. XAU / USD spent the day near 1195 per ounce, and XAG / USD was trading around 16.60.

Forecast for Thursday, November 27

Stock market

The German index DAX, apparently prefers to respond to the strong economic data, rather than on the probability of delay additional economic stimulus in the eurozone. Benchmark struck yesterday strong psychological level of 9900 and continued to move up. We have already said that the strengthening of such a long index may result in a short-term correction, and, quite possibly, it will happen today.

First, a couple of approaches to the strong «round number» 10000, which may be located near a large number of sellers. Second, the increase in the index has continued for 8 trading sessions in a row, which is not mentioned in May of 2013. Third, today will be published some interesting reports from Germany that can also add volatility index. In this situation, it makes sense to combine the two trading strategies: short shorts in anticipation of correction in the area of 9800 and the possible movement in the area of 9670 in case of breakdown, as well as long-term longs when the more attractive levels to enter the market.

Commodities

So, it is now the hour «X» for oil prices, at least for the next few weeks. The market is already actively laying in the price of the probability of keeping the current quota for the extraction of the same. It is worth noting that many smaller meetings with various numbers of participants has already passed for this time, and none of these meetings did not give a hint to the fact that the volume will be reduced. Yesterday, the Minister of the UAE oil said that OPEC is not focused on any specific price levels and is not interested in short-term binding energy costs, as the market, in the end, he balances out.

However, one rather important comment yet received — the current oversupply is due to shelf development of non-OPEC. Subtle hint and the United States, and the fact that in the current environment cartel more worried about market share than for the retention price. And it could be another indirect confirmation that the reduction in production is not going to happen. And it is clear that the market has already laid it in the price. Thus, all the attention to detail will be meeting, and details may well give the market a reason to once again believe in the energy, at least enough to return quotes Brent above $ 80 per barrel.

Foreign exchange market

Today we will have a shortened trading day in observance of Thanksgiving Day in the United States, so that all the basic movements will take place during the European session, and the market’s attention will be focused on the dynamics of the EUR / USD. Published data on the labor market and inflation in Germany will be just in time. The fact that several reports from Europe’s largest economy recently pointed to the restoration of business confidence in the country, making performance more interesting. If the incentive program from the ECB, together with the «cheap» national currency and low energy prices have supported the export-oriented Germany, it may appear, at least in the growth in employment. In the event of a fall in unemployment, and higher-than-expected pace, the couple may return to the area of 1.2570.

For USD / RUB today comes a key day of the week. Couple in the last few days is actively preparing for the meeting of OPEC, which must decide whether to cut production volumes. It is worth noting that the worst scenario, the couple had already laid in prices, rising above 47.00 as part of yesterday’s trading. It is possible that in the case of confirmation of the previous quota will be knee-jerk reaction up to 47.60 area, where it will have to pick up a pair for opening positions. Chances are good that will be played the traditional scheme of «buy the rumor, sell the fact», and by the end of the trading day USD / RUB will return to the area of 45.80.

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Overview of the world's major financial markets from November 26, 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners