Overview of the world’s major financial markets from November 24, 2014

Asian stocks behaved with restraint against the closure of the celebration of the Japanese market. But European and US benchmarks were more active. Britain’s FTSE fell 0.31%, German DAX — added 0,54%, NASDAQ grew slightly less percent, while DJIA adhered to a neutral position.

Despite the range trading that we saw in the currency market on Monday, the major pairs showed an interesting trend. USD / JPY, although it rebounded from Friday’s levels, back above 118.00, but failed to demonstrate a more impressive growth, closed in the area of 118.40. EUR / USD opened the week «gap down,» but came out strong research data IFO Germany helped the pair back above 1.24 and closed in the area of 1.2420. GBP / USD from 1.5635 opening level reaching out to a maximum of 1.5713, but retreated in the region of 1.57 at the close. Meanwhile, USD / RUB not only opened a trading below Friday’s close, but also tried to update the 3-week low near 44.34, but the afternoon was able to recover, completed trades near 44.80.

The oil market continues to live expectations and rumors, as planned for this week OPEC summit in Vienna is haunted by investors. Apart from the fact that the representatives of the cartels are already actively provide comments on the topic of energy quotations and spare capacity, we also get news about the failure of the «nuclear talks» with Iran. All this creates favorable conditions for increased volatility of the asset. Brent yesterday opened trading at $ 80.38 a barrel reached $ 80.83, but then eased to $ 79.70 at the close.

Precious metals moved in consolidation mode, hoping in the next few days to get new catalysts for the breakdown of the next technical levels. XAU / USD opened the bidding at $ 1201.92, slipped to a local minimum 1192.75, but was restored to the area of 1,198.20 at the close. Meanwhile, XAG / USD from the opening level of 16.41 seceded close, ending trading at 16.44.

Forecast for Tuesday November 25

Stock market

German DAX managed to demonstrate six consecutive trading days of growth, came very close in the September highs. However, the limited reaction index unexpectedly strong performance studies IFO, published in yesterday’s trading, makes us fear that the inertial motion comes to an end, and the correction is already inevitable.

In addition to the technical barrier in the area of 9800 against the index and factors can play a fundamental nature. The last wave of DAX was marked just on hopes of further stimulus by the ECB, and the reason for them to become quite soft utterance Mario Draghi. However, yesterday’s strong data from Germany, along with the previous surprises ZEW report led investors to doubt that at the next meeting of the regulator decides to move to QE. Moreover, doubts are heated and comments of officials — yesterday Bundesbank President Weidmann very skeptical about the legality of the ECB’s move to buy up assets. Reducing the chance of additional stimulation of the eurozone economy — it is an occasion for disorders of the stock market correction and DAX in the area nearest support at 9600.

Commodities

It seems that oil prices reference marks «bottomed» in mid-November, and since then has gradually demonstrate recovery indicators. Contributes to this lot planned for November 27 meeting of OPEC in Vienna, which will examine the current decline in oil prices and production volumes necessary energy source.

Thus, the coming week could be decisive for the quotations of «black gold» in the following weeks, and even months. Recall that the start of a «price war» gave Saudi Arabia a low cost for the first Asian, and then for American consumers. Meanwhile, record oil production in the US, which is projected to the Energy Information Service of the Ministry of Energy, made in 2015 for the maximum levels of 34 years, only add fuel to the fire. This led to the Brent oil at $ 76.75 per barrel on November 14 for the first time in the last four years.

However, in the next few days there is a good chance to see the strengthening of quotations of «black gold» in the area of $ 83.00 a barrel, as the market is growing awareness that too many OPEC representatives dissatisfied with the current alignment. Very aggressive acts Venezuela and Ecuador, the first for the last few weeks has held talks with Algeria, Qatar, Iran and Russia. Incidentally, Iran also do not like what is happening, although it takes a neutral stance. Thus, if at the summit of OPEC decided to reduce production volumes at least 500 thousand barrels per day, it will be enough to stimulate Brent foothold above $ 80.00. If the power will be cut by one million barrels, it can serve as a good impetus for the energy source with the immediate goal at $ 84.80.

Foreign exchange market

EUR / USD once again makes no attempt to recover, even though an extra soft and super soft monetary policy of the ECB mood. Yesterday’s report IFO gave a very good push up not only because this is the second consecutive index from Germany, which greatly exceeds the forward-looking statements. Not only because the index came out better than expected for the first time in the last six months. The fact that the restoration of indices reflecting the current business mindset of the corporate sector, may indicate that the triple support in the form of stimulus from the ECB, the low rate of the euro and falling energy prices already give a good springboard for the export-oriented German economy. If this is indeed a reversal trend, it is not far off a gradual recovery in demand for the single currency. However, for this we will have to make sure that it really steady trend, rather than a temporary correction. Today published a report on Germany’s GDP could attract attention only in the case of deviations from the predicted values, and we need a pleasant surprise to EUR / USD broke through 1.2480 and rushed up.

In the afternoon the USD / RUB returned to the levels of the opening, trading below 45.00, while on Monday morning showed attempts to recover the 3-week high at 44.34. Currency support provided oil prices: Brent North Sea for the second consecutive trading day held near $ 80 a barrel in anticipation of the results of the summit of OPEC in Vienna. The market is gradually beginning to price the likelihood of reducing production of «black gold», as seems to be satisfied with the current price levels only to Saudi Arabia. Thus, despite the fact that the tax period is actually coming to an end, up until November 27, we can observe the growth in demand for the ruble on expectations of price hike in energy prices. The immediate goal for the USD / RUB can become a mark of 43.80.

However, closer to the actual meeting is not possible large-scale closure of long positions in the ruble in the traditional strategy of «buy the rumor, sell the fact». The results of the summit malopredskazuemy, so chances to see sharp fluctuations in both the USD / RUB, and oil on this day.

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Overview of the world's major financial markets from November 24, 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners