Overview of the world’s major financial markets from November 20, 2014

Yesterday, stocks were upset obscenities research results in business activity. And Asia, and Europe showed weaker performance than expected. As a result, the Japanese Nikkei at the end of trading day lost about 1.2%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed trading down again, though lost only 0.1%. Meanwhile, Britain’s FTSE fell by 0.26%, German DAX — added 0.12%, while the NASDAQ and DJIA showed a slight strengthening.

Thursday was pretty calm, despite the abundance of interesting economic reports from Europe and the United States. USD / JPY from the opening level of 117.94 reached another multi-year high 118.97, closed in the area of 118,00. EUR / USD was forced to hand over the position on the published weaker eurozone PMI data. The German index in the manufacturing industry reached 50-item markers, perilously close to recession zone. As a result, the pair finished trading near 1.2540. GBP / USD was able to get some support from the data on retail sales, much better than expected. The pair managed to recover from a morning low of 1.57 to 1.5630 before closing. Meanwhile, USD / RUB all day drifted «south», virtually ignoring another wave of weakening oil prices. Bidding for the pair closed near 46.25.

The oil market recently demonstrated high volatility as investors divided into two camps: those waiting for the reduction in oil production by OPEC at the next meeting in Vienna, and those who believe that the planned meeting did not happen. Brent yesterday opened trading at $ 78.16 a barrel, eased to $ 77.55 in mid-day trading, but recovered in the area of $ 79.20 at the close.

Precious metals have moved to a new, more narrow range at higher levels. Making unsuccessful attempts to break the upper limit. XAU / USD opened the bidding at $ 1,182.39, again try to strengthen, noting 1197.07 intraday high, but fell back to the area of 1195. Meanwhile, XAG / USD from the opening level of 16.12 to 16.32 matured, but fell back to 16 20 at the close.

Forecast for Friday, November 21

Stock market

Despite the abundance of disappointing data from China, starting with the economic reports and ending with the launch failure mechanism of cross trades between stock exchanges in Shanghai and Hong Kong, the Hong Kong index Hang Seng (HSI) has a chance to recover from a 4-day fall, which led the benchmark for the November lows area of 23275. The impetus for recovery HSI can become not only a technical correction after a long fall. There are fundamental reasons: the market is too impressive responded to the small volume of trades between Shanghai and Hong Kong Stock Exchange, starting with the sale of the launch of the mechanism.

However, after the emotion comes «cold calculation», which says that we should not be judged by the current volume, and should be judged on the prospects offered by the current mechanism. In fact, China continues to open up the world and foreign investors, as it will mean new investment and a large amount of foreign capital in the future. Once it will lay in the price index may go up and very good pace, but at the moment we are waiting for corrective recovery in the area of 23800.

Commodities

Quotes of gold attracted more and more attention. Despite the fact that as long as the fundamental reason for the purchase of the asset is not, as inflationary pressures around the world remains quite restrained, and stock assets continue to attract investors’ attention, things could change in the coming months. For the past week XAU / USD is trying to break through resistance at $ 1,200, and if it were to succeed, it could be a strong signal in favor of further asset purchases.

Please note recently from representatives of the «golden industry» have been increasing complaints about the unprofitable production of metal at current prices. According to some of the major players, most gold mining companies the average level of expenses, including payments on liabilities of $ 1,300 per ounce. If this is indeed the case, then the proposal will soon begin to fall, and, therefore, the price starts to move up yet.

Nevertheless, currently at $ 1,200 per ounce remains a strong barrier on the way up, and it is possible that after a failed test XAU / USD once again slip into the area of $ 1,175.

Foreign exchange market

While the euro is struggling with the nearest resistance and the yen moves to record lows, GBP / USD is slowly but surely beginning to recover their positions.

It is worth noting a few signals that can talk about further growth of the pair. Firstly, the maximum in the medium at FOMC, was renewed Thursday. Secondly, a pair of three days in a row closes trading in positive territory. Third, retail sales were much higher than expected, which may indicate that the stabilization of the labor market begins to broadcast in consumer spending and, hence, the acceleration of inflation in the offing. Fourth, the last protocol Monetary Policy Committee showed that some members of the MPC fear a sharp rise in prices in the coming quarters. All this may indicate that the era of the fall of the pound is coming to an end, and restoring it may be longer than is seen at the moment. The immediate goal at the moment may act 1.5775 area.

The only thing that can interrupt the strengthening of the GBP — talk that Britain still leaves the EU. If it becomes more like a reality, a massive outflow of British currency is inevitable, and, hence, the pound mark new lows.

USD / RUB continues to slowly go down, and to restore to a close Thursday, oil prices could have a pair of support this morning. The narrowed range of day trading clearly indicates that a large number of speculators left the market, and the ratio of buyers and sellers have reached a time, but the balance. A weakening US dollar on world currency market can serve as a support for the Russian currency until the end of the trading day.

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Overview of the world's major financial markets from November 20, 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners